Over the past 10 years, Turkey has emerged as a major player in Middle East politics, immersing itself in many of the region's most thorny issues. Turkey was never altogether absent from the regional scene. But until recently, the heir to the Ottoman Empire looked westward for both inspiration and guidance. A member of NATO and a candidate for EU membership, Turkey forged particularly close ties with Israel. This was the course Turkey's secular elite had pursued since Kamal Ataturk. For years, in fact, Turkey's relations with its Arab neighbours were strained. At one point, Turkey even threatened to attack Syria. Meanwhile, military cooperation with Israel flourished. Turkey held joint manoeuvres and conducted military research with the Israelis. Some of the naval and aerial bases that Turkey and Israel manned jointly may even have been used in attacks against Gaza. And it was not all about the military. Trade between Turkey and Israel grew steadily over the years. It is not that Turkey needed Israel for defence reasons. The two countries don't really have a common enemy. With the exception of the Iskanderun area, which has been excised from the Arab world, there is no marked hostility between the Arabs and the Turks. Some tensions exist, such as those related to the presence of members of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) in Syria. But since Arab and Turkish nationalists traded accusations following the Turkish revolution of 1908, things have been mostly calm on the Arab-Turkish front. As Israel's ally, Turkey became a source of concern for the Arabs. The alliance was viewed by many as being in bad taste, though Turkey must have had reasons to seek closer ties with Israel. To put it mildly, Turkey's alliance with Israel was frowned upon in the Arab world. Now, "the times are changing." Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is positioning himself as a major Israel basher in the region, and in doing so is acquiring undeniable popularity among the discontented Arab masses. With the Arab world caught up in the middle of what seems like a political vacuum, a little posturing can go a long way. Not so long ago, Jacques Chirac wooed the region with his sweet talk. Then came Saddam Hussein with his thundering bluster, Hassan Nasrallah with his defiant moments, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with his devil-may-care politics. All captured the attention of the impressionable Arab masses, and all had their day under the sun. This is not to say that a real change is not underway in Turkey. Since the Islamists came to power, new policies have been introduced, the military has been kept at bay, and Western demands for better human and personal rights have been somewhat addressed. The Islamists proved themselves to be adept politicians, and they have so far managed to avoid a head-on collision with the Kurdish insurgency. They even won over some Kurdish hardliners. Turkey has been heartbroken by the EU, at whose doors it has been standing in line for years, waiting for its turn while others -- who came much later -- were whisked inside. Resentful, certainly the Turks are. But this is not the real reason why they are getting involved, after decades of absence, in Arab affairs. The Islamist elite sees a point in edging close to the Arabs. But this doesn't mean that Turkey is going to forget its Western and European affiliations. The Turks are going to seek a middle-of-the-road path, keeping one eye on the Arab world and another on Europe. Europe may not necessarily be averse to this attitude. Traditionally, Europe saw Turkey as a bridge between West and East. Therefore, Turkey is unlikely to turn its back on the West or on Israel. The Turks are only trying to collect a few more bargaining chips. If influential in the East, the Turks hope to become more appreciated in the West. Erdogan is not about to hop into a plane and land in Gaza. He is not about to sever ties with Israel. He will threaten and foam at the mouth, but this is all lip service, quite expected from the leader of a country whose citizens Israel has killed in cold blood. Erdogan is saying all the right things, but what he intends to do may be something altogether different. Turkey likes its newfound popularity in the Islamic world, and it knows that along with popularity come trade benefits and political clout. But Ankara is not about to ditch its old dream of being accepted by the Europeans. The Turks have not given up on Washington and Brussels.
