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Looking ahead to Trump
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 22 - 11 - 2016

In the run-up to the US presidential elections between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic rival Hilary Clinton there was great expectation among analysts and experts — this writer among them — that Hilary Clinton would win, being the more entitled and qualified for this serious post.
Trump was seen as lacking experience in foreign policy and its complicated regional and international issues. This assessment was supported by major US newspapers, The New York Times, The Washington Post and a large number of think tanks.
Even a large section of the Republican Party was not supporting Trump — including leading figures in the House of the Representatives.
Trump's statements came to support these positions.
Trump's statement on foreign immigrants in America, particularly Muslims, alienated him further. Trump said they must be subject to security tests, and he promised to build a wall on the border with Mexico. He also demanded that America's allies pay more to upkeep the security alliances in which they are beneficiaries.
In a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin has been regarded as an adversary to the US and US interests, Trump praised him.
On the Middle East and the Arab world, Trump lambasted both Obama and Clinton, regarding them as responsible for the rise of terrorism.
Following the surprising Trump win, questions were raised over how it happened, and what was wrong in expert and media expectations. It seems many experts failed to understand what was going on among large sections of American society, expressed in resentment towards the establishment and dissatisfaction in the American political system.
Trump appealed to this resentment. He painted himself as coming from outside the establishment. Trump also appealed to white Americans and their concerns about American identity in the face of an influx of ethnic minorities and migrants more generally.
Trump appealed to states where their industries were transferred to countries like China and Mexico, thus creating unemployment. He promised to pressure American companies to return their factories to America or face heavy taxes.
This background explains the earthquake experienced in America and the world.
But it seems that after winning, Trump became aware of the deep misgivings in America and the world on his election. In his speech following Clinton's concession, he tried to placate these misgivings. In tone and content, his speech was different from his sharp statements during the campaign.
In particular, Trump promised to be a “president of all the Americans”. After alienating the Muslim community, he promised to “respect all religions”; on his promise to “make America great” he said he would do that, “not through aggression but through reaching common ground” and keeping strong ties with American's allies.
As time rolls on to his inauguration in January, Egypt and the Arab world need to use this transitional period to influence Trump's choices and policies, through dialogue with his new team. The European Union was surely aware of this need to shape Trump's policies when it invited him to Brussels to meet and listen and discuss his views on the future of American relations with the EU.
The writer is former executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.


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