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The winds of change
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 16 - 11 - 2016

Presidential election night saw the unravelling of a story which many in the United States are having trouble absorbing and coping with. The aftershocks of the political earthquake that saw Donald Trump overturn all expectations and sweep to victory continue to vibrate across the country.
President-elect Donald Trump has ushered in a new political order in Washington which could change the face of US politics for a generation. He is the first Republican in almost 80 years to command the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The election results have divided the nation. A majority of Democrats accepted the result but a small minority took to the streets to demonstrate against the president-elect. Fear among religious and racial minorities has reached new heights: Since the polls closed and the results were announced the media has reported more than 300 hate crimes across the country.
According to Zogby Analytics: “Trump was able to win because he consolidated votes among Republicans and narrowed the gap with Hillary Clinton among women voters in the rust belt states. Clinton won women voters by 49 per cent to 45 per cent. In 2012 Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney among women voters by 54 per cent to 40 per cent. Trump also closed the gap among 18 to 29 year olds - Clinton won 45 per cent to Trump's 44 per cent among young voters.”
A central plank of Trump's campaign message was that he would “drain the swamp” of Washington politics, a reference to the lobbyists and interest groups that dominate political life in the capital, yet he has already started recruiting people from the institutions that only days before he was railing against for corrupting political life. He has turned to conservative-leaning think-tanks and political offices like the Heritage Foundation in his search for senior officials and advisers to hire.
The mainstream media has focussed on contradictory positions adopted by Trump before and after the elections, attention that the entourage surrounding Trump says is evidence of continuing media bias. Trump's choice of candidates for senior positions has also stirred controversy because of the inclusion of hitherto beyond-the-pale right wing figures among his White House team.
As far as the Middle East is concerned, Trump has prioritised the fight against Islamist terrorism. General Michael Flynn, Trump's incoming national security advisor, has already floated the idea of building a single “chain of command” to fight terrorism globally. But Washington insiders predict Trump will continue to face the same problems President Obama struggled with for eight years, from the deterioration of national infrastructure to facing off against a proliferating number of terrorist groups across the globe.
Experts in Washington say Trump's ability to make real progress on foreign policy issues will depend on whether or not his closest advisors are able to force through major policy shifts. Trump's coterie is currently mulling a grand strategy to promote US interests which will inevitably include ideas on how to defeat ISIS.
“Donald Trump has a plan to defeat ISIS and it comes with sound components that require a far greater role by our Middle East partners combined with strong US leadership. Donald Trump is committed to bringing back American leadership to the White House and will put our people and American interests first,” Flynn wrote during the campaign.
“The way our national security has worked until now says that we are moving so far to the other way, and we cannot look at anybody,” says Eli Gold, Senior Vice-President of the London Centre for Policy Research in Washington.
“We cannot distinguish a good guy from a bad guy because we are not allowed to focus on any one group because this might offend somebody.”
Credible sources close to the Republican majority in Congress confirmed to Al-Ahram Weekly that moves to designate the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organisation are unlikely to face any real challenge given the Republicans' majority in both the House and the Senate.
The consensus in Washington is that the Brotherhood has been undermined by the defeat of Hillary Clinton. “I don't believe that the Democratic administration is really supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood but I think its inconstancy contributed to the view that the Obama administration is soft on the Muslim Brotherhood. I do not think that the new administration will be soft on the group,” Dennis Ross, the William Davidson Distinguished Fellow and counsellor at The Washington Institute, told the Weekly.
Trump advisers are preparing to visit Middle East before the inauguration of the new president on 20 January in an attempt to reassure allies that the new administration will target militants, not Muslims in general.
Following Trump's election triumph the New York Times wrote: “In the Middle East, as elsewhere around the world, Mr. Trump's surprise victory shocked many people. But a new occupant of the Oval Office could lead to a significant reordering of American engagement in a complex region. Saudi Arabia, for example, hopes Mr. Trump will take a hard line on Iran. Egypt sees a man it can do business with who will not quibble about human rights.”


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