Some weeks ago I wrote a column entitled “Don't Write off the Old Fox” saying the French President François Hollande still could win the country's presidential elections next year. The right's primary was expected to be tough and detrimental to the winner's stature; the economic performance of France could improve; a critical mass of the French electorate cannot bear former president Nicolas Sarkozy, expected to win the right's primary; and the latter's main competitor, Alain Juppé, is old and is thought to have a sombre and authoritarian side. This scenario remains possible, but it is no longer probable. Now the outlook is different, or so the pundits claim. The previous scenario rested on the assumption that opinion is volatile and that what people think now may not be relevant to their future vote. The French electorate does not really decide how it is going to vote before January or February in an election year, and the presidential elections are scheduled for May. All this is true, but it does not take into account the real innovation this time round, which is the organisation of the primaries. These are a huge unknown, and there are few precedents enabling us to predict what is likely to happen and what is going to be impossible. What we know for certain is that the current state of opinion matters, as people are going to vote in the primaries soon. And for now most of the left, and indeed most of the French, do not think Hollande is going to be re-elected as president. As a result, the left has no stake in indirectly helping former president Sarkozy, hoping he will be easier to beat in the presidential race. On the contrary, its hatred for the former head of state is so deep that it will do anything to prevent him from regaining the presidency. So, the reasoning goes, if the winner of the right's primary is probably going to become the country's next president, a Sarkozy nomination will no longer be a blessing for the left. Instead, it will be a disaster, and leftist voters will have to weigh in and participate in the right's primary if only to ensure that Juppé wins. Such participation is not difficult – you pay two euros and sign a paper in which you testify that you share the core values (I am not sure of the exact formulation) of the right. This participation could counterbalance one of Sarkozy's main assets, which is his grip on the party apparatus and the fact that many activists are campaigning for him. The former president is in a trap, however. He cannot compete with Juppé for the “centrist” vote as he is simply not credible. So he has to stick to his strategy in the 2007 elections, which was to try to occupy extreme right territory. This worked very well in 2007, but it could backfire this time round. Today, the Front National Party is much stronger than it was in 2007, and Party leader Marine Le Pen is a more formidable opponent than her father. She is also trying to adopt the same strategy of gaining new voters by occupying others' territory. Sarkozy has to find ways to erode Juppé's lead in the polls, but he has to do so while avoiding adding to the negative stereotypes regarding his bluntness and his supposed “brutality”. Fortunately for him, he can reasonably hope that somebody else will do the dirty work for him, somebody such as former prime minister François Fillon, also a candidate in the elections, but one who is lagging behind in the polls. In my view, the right-wing politician Jean-François Coppé will do much the same job for Juppé and strongly attack Sarkozy. Sarkozy also cannot bring up Juppé's previous problems with the judiciary, as he could face a serious counter-attack on this issue himself. On this subject too he has to hope somebody else will help by bringing up the issue. Juppé is in a relatively comfortable position, and up to now he has succeeded in avoiding mistakes. His appearance last Thursday on French television was deemed a success. He looked relaxed, did not avoid sensitive questions, promised to be someone who can bring others together, and said he would enforce reform. Doing the last two things at once is going to be difficult, however. The issue of reform is a complex one, and Juppé's biggest failure when he was prime minister in 1995 was in trying to reform the French pensions system when he had to surrender to pressure from the unions. Most people today think he was right to try to reform this system, however, and he may be able to turn memories of the episode to his advantage. He does not want to be remembered as the one who was unable to bring about reform in 1995, but he does want to be the one who succeeds in doing what is necessary in the course of his presidential mandate. Juppé can be tough, and his attacks are often fierce, but of course much will depend on the results of the French legislative elections. These should follow the presidential race, and they are in effect its “third round”. Hollande for his part is facing very serious problems, and things keep worsening. His ministers make mistakes, the last one being Minister of Education Najat Belkacem's recent spat with the Pope. Hollande also often cannot act decisively. The left's primary was expected to be a formality, but it turns out to be much more difficult than was previously thought as many people are unhappy with Hollande's performance and they could opt for a “sanction” vote against him. Some of the polls suggest that Hollande might even lose the primary election, though I think this is implausible. He should be able to win the nomination, even if at the price of making concessions to left-wingers that could further antagonise voters during the presidential race and that might not be enough to prevent a strong showing by the extreme left that could cost him dearly. Last but not least, many Socialist Party MPs are considering retreating from the campaign altogether. The situation looks desperate, but of course a lot could happen before next May, and Hollande remains a formidable tactician. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen has been keeping quiet, leaving the main contenders to fight each other. The polls have been consistent in saying that Le Pen should be able to cross the bar of the first round of the presidential race. But it remains difficult to imagine her as president, among other reasons because the Front National is unable to build coalitions with the French mainstream political parties. This remains the most indecisive election of the century. One friend said to me recently that we might even envision a second round that could see an extreme left candidate facing up to Marine Le Pen. This looks implausible, but French voters have surprised us many times before now. The writer is a professor of international relations at the Collège de France and a visiting professor at Cairo University.
