In the chess game of Lebanese politics, each player anxiously awaits the opponent's next move. Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut It was a week of rumour and counter-rumour. Last Tuesday's assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel propelled the post-war struggle for political ascendancy to a new level, intensifying the polarisation between the so-called 14 March anti-Syrian bloc, vocally backed by the US, and the 8 March opposition of Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah and allied Christian leader Michel Aoun. Each group is named after respective anti- and pro-Syrian demonstrations last year. Gemayel's assassination had two immediate domestic results: to revive accusations against Damascus from the ruling parliamentary majority, and to scupper, for now, an opposition plan to "take to the streets". Thursday was widely expected to be the day the Hizbullah-Aoun axis began their mass movement to call for more representation in government or early elections. The opposition accuses the government of mishandling, even collaborating in, Israel's aggressive bombing of Lebanon this summer, which killed around 1,200 people. Instead, on Thursday, crowds of mourners and anti-Syrian protesters surged through the town centre of Beirut, greeting Gemayel's coffin -- draped in the flag of the far-right Phalange Party founded by his grandfather -- and listening to speeches by the main leaders of the 14 March bloc. Hizbullah, it seemed, had been forced onto the back foot, Aoun even more so, leading many to question automatic assumptions of Syrian guilt. "Fifteen days ago, the opposition was riding a high wave of popularity, with a vision of how to reach its goals," said Charles Harb, an American University in Beirut psychology professor and political commentator. "14 March was very much on the defensive." The assassination of the first Christian Maronite in the series of killings over the past two years aggravated a split in Lebanon's most politicised community, which dominated national leadership until the 1975-90 civil war shifted the balance towards Muslims. Stephanie Debs, a student, said she usually supported Aoun but disagreed with his current direction. "I want all of us Christians to be together. Christians must be strong first of all. But whenever someone is powerful, Syria kills them," she said, waiting outside St George's Church while Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir conducted Gemayel's service. Lebanese Forces supporter Tarik Chaar said he believed Hizbullah was behind the killing. "We want a federation in Lebanon, like Bashir," he said. Israeli-backed Phalange leader Bashir Gemayel -- Pierre's uncle -- was assassinated during the civil war in 1982. Anti-Syrian leaders had urged supporters to turn out in numbers, with slogans such as "The court, now," a reference to the international tribunal into former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri's killing last year, broadened on the day of the wake to include Gemayel's assassination, and "no arms except legal arms," a reference to Hizbullah's weapons, a point of growing contention among Lebanese. Gemayel's poster also went up overnight with the message "We will not forget," joining billboards of other anti-Syrian figures assassinated last year. Supporters of Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement turned out in force, though crowd estimates varied. Although this reporter would put the number at no higher than 150,000, official estimates pointed to more than 1,100,000 people in attendance, larger than last year's vast 14 March protest that piled pressure on Syria to withdraw its troops. Lebanon is a country of 4,000,000 people. Defying speculation he would switch sides, Aoun announced that his Free Patriotic Movement remained ready for peaceful street protests. "We want to participate and we want balance. The government has lost its legitimacy and does not respect the constitution," he told reporters after a meeting Monday. Aoun was referring to the government's decision to approve plans for the international tribunal in the absence of Shia representation after six pro-Syrian ministers resigned days before the cabinet met on the issue. Hundreds of Lebanese Forces (a group led by Samir Geagea) and Aoun supporters clashed Monday night in Beirut's eastern Achrafieh district after the latter attempted to replace a large poster of their leader torn down last week. Bottles were thrown and insults hurled. Fuelling reports of a Sunni-Shia split influenced by events in Iraq, fights broke out after the Gemayel funeral between Hizbullah and Amal supporters on one side and Future Movement and Phalangists on the other. Shia protesters blocked the airport road briefly after demonstrators insulted Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Al-Manar television channel broadcast footage of demonstrators at the Gemayel rally beating their chests in ridicule of the Shia Ashura ritual. Calm returned when Nasrallah called into Al-Manar station urging his supporters to go home. Lebanese media reported Monday that the army had arrested armed elements training in the Kesraouan region north of Beirut. Al-Akhbar quoted military sources saying they were Lebanese Forces members on shooting exercises and that a cache of Israeli and American-made machine guns and three Jeeps were seized. Pierre Daher, head of the LBC Christian television channel, said they were members of his bodyguard, and that maps pointing to Aoun's house found in their possession were printed on an invitation card. Fears are high across all communities, but civil war is still seen as a long way off. "None of the parties has anything to gain by heading towards a civil war," Harb said. "The opposition would not gain power and the government would lose what power they have." Lebanese are split into two rival camps, rather than along clear sectarian lines, Harb said, which means incidents of violence were more likely than outright conflict. Hizbullah remains the only party in Lebanon with significant arms, although many possess light weaponry. Many anti-Syrians see the opposition campaign and Gemayel's assassination as aimed at blocking the international court so Syrians avoid trial. Hizbullah issued a statement in support of the international court; the government welcomed the statement and said the six ministers, whose resignations Fouad Al-Siniora rejected, were welcome back to the fold to discuss the tribunal. As expected, the ministers stayed away and cabinet approved tribunal plans Saturday. They all wait for the by no means certain approval of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, and then parliament. "The problem with the international court is that it is both an internal and very much an external issue," said Lebanese American University historian Fawwaz Traboulsi. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad was hoping that the international court would be cancelled. Hizbullah, Traboulsi says, has been playing for time. "14 March wants to make sure it goes ahead so that no real compromise happens between the US and Syria that makes the US lose interest in the court." The US Baker-Hamilton Commission is expected next month to recommend dialogue with Iran and Syria to resolve America's Iraq quagmire. Meanwhile, US President Bush again accused Iran and Syria of undermining the Lebanese government. "That government is being undermined, in my opinion, by extremist forces encouraged out of Syria and Iran," he said Tuesday. Syria's foreign minister levelled counter-accusations of interference. "We know who's interfering, the Americans and the French," he said on the sidelines of a EuroMed summit in Finland. A senior US official told Reuters last week that Washington planned a "significant" rise in military aid to Lebanon to sustain a "drumbeat of solidarity" with Prime Minister Siniora's government, notwithstanding signing an agreement two weeks ago to up military aid to $10.5 million. Lebanon's army deployed across southern areas, formerly controlled by Hizbullah, after the war. At the time of writing, Beirut was on tenterhooks, with heavy army presence in the capital, quiet streets after dark and a counter-campaign by the opposition expected at any time. Whether it will take the form of civil disobedience or street demonstrations is not yet clear, but many believe it will lean towards the former to reduce the scope for confrontation and will be spread throughout the country to show opposition strength without mustering huge crowds. "Rather than try to contain and calm the situation and wait and see what happens, both sides are pushing for a confrontation on the basis that their external patrons are fighting each other," Traboulsi said. "But they're not. The external patrons are confused."
