We hope that news of floods at the sources of the Nile does not divert our attention from the greater issue, namely the future of our relationship with the countries at the sources of the Nile and Ethiopia above all. This year's floods, which are higher than average due to the higher levels of rainfall this year in both Sudan and Ethiopia, have inundated hundreds of villages and destroyed thousands of homes in Sudan. Nevertheless, we must bear in mind that, while higher than average, this year's floods are only one of the thousands of floods that the Nile and its tributaries have experienced over the millennia. The annual flooding of the Nile brings both benefits and banes. While the latter can be painful and even tragic, the real crux of the issue is that a water shortage crisis could destroy Egypt entirely, sweeping it away physically and culturally. Egypt has experienced numerous years of high annual flooding. The most serious floods occurred in 1946 and 1988. If the readings are correct, this year's floods are the highest in a century. Perhaps this phenomenon will induce Ethiopia to bring forward the process of filling the reservoir behind the Grand Renaissance Dam and, moreover, to accelerate it from 10 years — as Egypt demands — to only six years, which Ethiopia wants. Ethiopia would have a logical excuse as it could argue that this would minimise damage due to the larger amounts of water feeding the Nile from its estuaries. On the other hand, this year's higher rainfall might induce Ethiopia to construct more dams on most of the Nile tributaries. Currently there are 33 projects that we know of, whether irrigation dams, electricity generating dams or dams intended for both electricity generation and irrigation purposes. Now, Ethiopia is planning to construct the Koysha hydroelectric dam on the Omo River in southern Ethiopia, near the border with Kenya. This is to be another of Ethiopia's great dams, with a height of 170 metres and costing 2.2 billion Euros. It is being carried out and funded by Italian firms. Apart from the Blue Nile, the largest of the Nile tributaries, the Atbara also emanates from Ethiopia and joins the main course of the Nile north of Khartoum. The Sobat is the southernmost eastern tributary of the White Nile, which it joins in Malakal, in what is now South Sudan. I had the opportunity to travel over the entire area of southwest Ethiopia in a small plane at a low altitude. The excursion took me over the areas of Jambila: Omo, Akomo, Baro and Gilo, all large rivers emanating from Ethiopia and heading westward into Sudan, along with Pibor. But many other rivers emanate from northern Ethiopia. One is the Alqash, which heads northwest. In years of low flooding, this river fades into the desert before reaching Kassala. But in high flood seasons, as is the case this year, the river can extend to the Atbara, further increasing the water level of the Nile. South of Alqash is the Tekezé which also vanishes fruitlessly into the desert. It is essential to keep our focus on how to confront Ethiopia's expansion in dam construction. Towards this end, we need a long term strategic plan, but in conjunction with that and more immediately we need to begin to consider the measures that need to be taken in order to counter the anticipated detrimental effects of the Grand Renaissance Dam, the largest of Ethiopia's hydraulic projects so far. By agreeing on how to minimise the potential damage that could accrue to us from that dam, we will have laid firm foundations for how to deal with any Nile tributaries or water projects that could affect us. In this regard, we should work to coordinate with South Sudan and Kenya, because some of the Ethiopian dams will affect those countries' water resources. Accordingly, we should think of the current phase as one of laying the foundations for how to handle transnational rivers and how to work to solve problems related to these rivers with other countries that share their banks, as European nations, the US and its neighbours, and the countries of Southeast Asia have done with respect to their many transnational river courses. The foregoing considerations should compel us to create a higher national committee to oversee the handling of the Nile waters issue as a whole, as opposed to just the question of the Grand Renaissance Dam. These are matters that should not be left to the Ministry of Water Resources alone, or to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or General Intelligence Services alone. Water and our water resources is, above all, an Egyptian national security issue of the first order, even if we are kept in the dark on this issue and its developments due to the evident lack of transparency with which it is handled.
