International research and technology — particularly German — have brought down the cost of the production of electricity from solar energy from about 40 cents to eight cents per kilowatt. They have also brought other benefits as well, such as reducing air pollution, carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the burning of diesel, mazut and natural gas, and the greenhouse effect that harms people around the world, and supplying natural gas and petroleum for the production of chemical and petrochemical products. Currently, about 31,600 megawatts of electricity is generated in Egypt and plans are underway to build new thermal plants to produce an additional 14,400 megawatts in cooperation with the German company Siemens before 2019. Egypt is also seeking to cooperate with Russia to construct four nuclear units to generate 4,800 megawatts of electricity starting in 2023. Egypt is currently considered an electricity-poor country, meaning that its annual electricity output (31,600 megawatts) is low compared to the total population (92 million). Saudi Arabia, for example, produces 75,000 megawatts annually for a population of 27 million, while Germany generates about 710,000 megawatts for a population of 82 million. Egypt is working to reach a level of electricity production of 85,000 megawatts by 2030. Renewable and new energies, including solar and wind energy and biogas, are important components of this target, set to make up 20 per cent of all energy produced by 2022 and 35 per cent by 2030. The trend on the global, European and American fronts is to increase attention to renewable energy, including solar energy, nuclear energy, wind energy, biomass and biogas, geothermal energy, and pump and storage energy. New technologies may yet appear in the future as well. The world is moving towards reducing its reliance on thermal power stations that burn fossil fuels like mazut, diesel, coal or natural gas in order to confront environmental pollution and climate change and avoid or mitigate the impact of melting icecaps and rising sea levels that could flood land in coastal countries. This global trend is consistent with the recommendations of the climate change conference held in Paris in early December 2015 and is reflected in moves by the US, China and India to establish solar plants to generate tens of thousands of megawatts of electricity every year from 2016 to 2030. In Europe, Germany and the UK in particular have shown renewed interest in solar energy and have plans to build more new plants from 2016 to 2020. In fact, the number of new solar energy stations to be built by 2020 all over Europe will be equivalent to the number of stations built by 2010. We can thus see the importance of studies by all specialists in the state to affirm the need to focus on the expansion of renewable, environmentally friendly power plants to meet future needs instead of expanding thermal plants that rely on gas or coal. Some specialists were already opposed to the introduction of coal as an energy source for electricity generation given its environmental impact, but due to the shortage of Egyptian natural gas after the 25 January Revolution and the fact that several foreign corporations suspended gas and oil drilling because of negative stances by some groups who do not belong to the nation, the previous government approved the use of coal in some new power plants as an alternative to natural gas. Motivated by its economic interests, China is interested in spreading coal-burning power plants, since there are numerous coalmines in China and coal is a major resource for the Chinese economy. It is important to reconsider the expanded construction of coal-burning power plants. The areas chosen for these plants are clean, new tourist areas, such as Sinai and the Red Sea, and the use of coal, regardless of precautionary measures, will inevitably cause environmental pollution. The burning of coal releases emissions with high concentrations of halogen gases and hydrogen. Economic and fiscal analysis affirms it is preferable to expand solar and wind stations. The investment cost is relatively low, and Egyptian and foreign investors can fund it. The cost is estimated at LE13 billion for the production of 1,000 megawatts of electricity annually, with low annual operating and maintenance costs for the 25 years following the plant's construction. The state budget, meanwhile, can bear the investment costs for constructing electricity plants using other technologies. To take an example: the investment cost for establishing coal-burning thermal power plants producing 1,000 megawatts annually is estimated at LE7.7 billion, as well as operating and maintenance costs of LE2 billion annually. This brings the cost to build and operate a coal-burning thermal power plant over 25 years to about LE50 billion. At the same time, quartz, the primary material needed to produce the components of solar power stations, is plentiful in the Egyptian desert, and these components are exported at low prices. In contrast, thermal plants rely on imported coal, which increases annual state imports. Sound planning thus requires the establishment of solar power stations, each with a productive capacity of 1,000 megawatts, with a targeted production of 15,000 megawatts by 2030. Wind energy stations should also be constructed to produce 22,500 megawatts of electricity by 2030, at a rate of 1,500 megawatts annually from 2016. A state solar energy project should not stop only with the construction of a number of solar plants every year. It should also include the establishment of integrated industrial compounds to produce photovoltaic components that rely on quartz (widely available in Egypt's Eastern Desert and in Sinai), including high-grade polysilicon, ingots and wafers, and the photovoltaic cells used to produce PV modules. This can help meet the construction needs of local solar power stations instead of importing such components from abroad. The construction of solar plants with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts annually will bring in annual investments of LE11-13 billion. This includes the import of the aforementioned components, estimated at LE9-10 billion annually, of which some LE5-6 billion ($700 million) is for photovoltaic modules. Studies show that this proposed industrial compound could manufacture end products worth about LE6 billion annually to meet the needs of the local market. The rest could be exported to Arab and African states that are currently constructing solar stations, such as Morocco (now building a plant with a capacity of 580 megawatts), Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. By establishing this industrial complex, Egypt will be the first country in the region to possess this integrated industry. All studies affirm that this enterprise would substantially contribute to the development of modern Egypt through the possession and adoption of modern advanced technologies. It would achieve self-sufficiency in electricity for Egyptian citizens and current and future Egyptian industries, and will provide new, advanced jobs for Egyptians. The writer is an engineer and former governor of Beheira.
