A majority of the British people have just voted to sever their country's bond with the EU. While every decision taken by majority vote is fundamentally democratic, at least in form, and must be respected and implemented, the majority is not always right. For example, there is nothing to prevent a majority from sometimes falling prey to a deliberate deception or attempt to mislead the public in the course of the competition between political and intellectual forces over certain concerns and interests that have no bearing on the general public welfare. I believe that the referendum that was held in the UK on 23 June 2016 is a clear manifestation of such a case. I also believe that it is no exaggeration to state that this date will be remembered as the worst in contemporary history. The detrimental repercussions from the results of the referendum will affect not only Britain but the whole of Europe and the entire world, and they will give greater rein to the forces of evil, hatred and extremism wherever they exist. The EU has never been just an economic bloc that was formed to promote the mutual advantage of its member countries. It is an institutional framework for a regional order that anchored its establishment on an ingenious humanitarian and civilisational idea: use the economy as an instrument to achieve peaceful coexistence between nations and peoples by creating a network of common interests and mutually beneficial advantages, thereby raising the costs of conflict and warfare to such a degree as to induce ruling elites to pursue peaceful means to settle disputes instead of recourse to arms and violence. Europe had been unable to put an end to its centuries-long history of warfare and to achieve stability and prosperity for its people until it succeeded in transforming the relationship between its countries and societies from “conflict mode”, which lasted until World War II, to “cooperative mode”, which prevailed after it set into motion the European integration and unification drive, a dynamic and still ongoing process. As we know, the dream of unity, which had fascinated European peoples for centuries, had remained elusive until six countries — France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg — succeeded in founding the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1950. The dynamism of this entity was such that it was soon able to expand horizontally, increasing its membership to 28 states, and vertically as it gradually broadened economic integration from a couple of sectors to the creation of a common market, and then to a single market and single currency, after which it shifted gear again, moving from economic integration to political integration with the establishment of the EU. The British decision to withdraw from this long and difficult integration process marks a precedent that many fear could induce others to follow, leading to the disintegration and perhaps complete collapse of the EU and raising the spectre of the reversion of European relations to the “combat mode” that prevailed before World War II. Simultaneously, the British withdrawal from the EU might encourage the revival of separatist drives within the Britain, leading to the independence of Scotland and Northern Ireland and perhaps the disintegration of the UK itself. The most dangerous aspect of the British exit vote is that it marks a victory for European extremists on both the right and left. These forces succeeded in exploiting a number of problems that have been troubling the UK and the EU for some time. The right-wing extremists harped on certain aspects of diminished national sovereignty in favour of EU institutions and the increasing influence of EU bureaucracy at the expense of democratically elected British institutions. They also capitalised on the immigration bogeyman as they played on and fuelled deeply ingrained chauvinistic and xenophobic sentiments among certain sectors of the population. The extreme left, for its part, exploited certain economic and social problems related to mounting unemployment, shrinking job opportunities and deteriorating health care and educational services due to the lack of sufficient public allocations. They also played on anti-capitalist chords and popular hostility toward large and powerful transnational corporations that flourished with the expansion of the European market. Initial breakdowns of the referendum vote indicate that the majority of political and ideological moderates, the majority of the better-educated and more professionally qualified sectors of the population, and the majority of urban dwellers voted in favour of remaining in the EU. At the same time, the majority of political and ideological radicals, the majority of the classes at either the pinnacle or the base of the social pyramid, and the majority of rural inhabitants voted in favour of leaving the EU, regardless of whether they belonged to either the Labour or Conservative party camps. Many, therefore, believe that the British vote to withdraw from the EU reflects the growth of extremist, demagogic forces on both ends of the political spectrum, and they see this as a sign of worse to come, in both the UK and the EU. They point, in particular, to the recent assassination of the British MP Jo Cox, a symbol of the Remain campaigners in Britain, by Thomas Mair, who symbolises the Brexit forces, as a mirror of the deeper battle seething beneath the surface of the referendum. The Labour MP who was assassinated was a member of the political and ideological trend that subscribes to the values of cultural diversity and the belief that diversity is a source of human enrichment. This trend sympathises with the plight of immigrants and refugees, and works to ease their suffering. Her assassin, who was arrested at the scene of the crime while shouting “Britain first” and “Death to traitors”, was subsequently proven to have links with neo-Nazi, white supremacist groups. Police searching his home found publications by the ultra-right National Alliance. They also found evidence linking him to the “Christian patrols” that have attacked a number of mosques in London, Birmingham and Manchester. The victory of the Brexit camp, despite the assassination of Jo Cox, is a clear indicator of the rise of ultranationalist and racist trends not just in the UK but elsewhere in Europe and the world. In fact, ultra-right forces in Europe, keen to capitalise on the British vote, have already begun to hint that they might instigate similar referendum drives. The Le Pen movement in France did more than hint, indicating how quickly the sparks emitted from the British Isles can spread throughout the rest of Europe. Moreover, within the UK itself, separatist national movements, such as that in Scotland, have begun to call for another referendum on whether or not to remain a part of the UK in view of the consequences of the British vote to leave the EU. In other words, the crisis that has begun to sweep Europe will not only affect the European regional order but also the larger states or federated entities that were also founded on the concept of a common project. Thus, British withdrawal from the EU could usher in a two-fold disintegration process, one extending across Europe should other EU members take the British route, the other within European nations themselves, especially the multinational ones. If this analysis is correct and the abovementioned fears prove well founded, the world will be standing on the brink of a historic turning point in international relations, reflecting the magnitude of the complexities in the world today. On the one hand, our world is moving closer together, under the pressure of the forces of globalisation, linked to the nature of the capitalist order and advances in communications technologies. On the other, it is fragmenting under the pressure of nationalist chauvinisms and tensions related to cultural and ethnic plurality. Moreover, the tug of war between these contradictory forces is playing out in the absence of a systematic process of governance at the domestic, regional and international levels. Strained by such conflicting pressures, what fate lies in store for the global order? The writer is professor of political science at Cairo University.
