It is an established fact that the crux of American global power and influence has been the US's great economic wealth. However, the crux of the American problem is economic decline. In The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, Paul Kennedy puts it bluntly: wealth is usually needed to underpin military power, and military power is usually needed to acquire and protect wealth. Furthermore, economic wealth is an important dimension of soft power — the ability to influence other countries without the exercise of raw military force — and hard power, thus economic decline can adversely affect a country's international influence and standing. As Kennedy points out in his book, the relationship between economic power and international power can also go in the other direction: if a great power overreaches in its international commitments, the home front can suffer both economically and socially. He writes, “If a state overextends itself strategically — by, say, the conquest of extensive territories or the waging of costly wars — it runs the risk that the potential benefits from external expansion maybe outweighed by the great expense of it all, a dilemma which becomes acute if the nation concerned has entered a period of relative economic decline. Great powers in relative decline instinctively respond by spending more on security and thereby divert potential resources from investment and compound their long-term dilemma.” Kennedy's theory was applied first on the Soviet Union. By the end of the 1990s, the US was recognised as the first and lone superpower. But debate on its future as a superpower has intensified, particularly at the beginning of the millennium amid the failures of American foreign policy, and with the financial and economic crisis by the end of the Bush administration. As a continuation of this debate, American political scientist David Mason published a book titled The End of the American Century. Mason charts American power in the last decade, particularly since 11 September 2001 when all aspects of American power started to wane. Mason argues that despite the fact that American consumer goods and popular culture are still appealing across the world, US culture faces increasing resistance almost everywhere in the world. Most polls conducted indicate that world public opinion regards American political, economic and cultural influence as representing a threat to peace and national identity. The American invasion of Iraq, totally ignoring international law, intensified hostility to America across the world. Mason concludes that this clearly indicates the end of the American century. The writer shifts to Obama's administration, which came amid this American image problem. According to Mason, despite some level of stabilisation, the problems facing America internally and internationally are serious and long term, and that the decline of American influence and power cannot be halted by a simple change in political leadership. If Mason belongs to the “declinist” group, there is another school that started with American political scientist Samuel Huntington, who founded what is called the “renewest school”. A prominent member of this school is American political scientist Joseph Nye, whose book, Is the American Century Over? was published in 2004. In his book, Nye looks is more optimistic about the future of American power. He questions analysts who say China will overtake the US. Nye argues that American power could be weakened by domestic problems and the flourishing of the Chinese economy, but US military power and “soft power” will continue to overtake America's closest competitors for the coming decades. Nye argues that despite China's efforts to develop its soft power, it faces problem with its neighbours, weakening its ability to persuade others. Thus, America's soft power will remain influential at a global level. The writer is a former executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
