It is 16 months since the US-led coalition was created to combat the Islamic State (IS) group and little has changed on the ground. Last week Moscow took matters into its own hands, launching air strikes against IS in Syria in Russia's biggest Middle East intervention in decades. Egypt responded with full support. “Russia's engagement, given its potential and capabilities, is something that will limit terrorism in Syria,” Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri said on Saturday. There is hope Russia will be able to succeed where others — the US with Europe in tow — have failed, eradicating IS while maintaining the integrity of the Syrian state. “We agree with Russia on terrorism and its long-term impact,” former Egyptian foreign minister Nabil Fahmi told Al-Ahram Weekly. “We also agree that the Syrian state and its institutions must be preserved.” “Egypt wants a peaceful settlement in Syria,” Mahmoud Khallaf, strategic consultant at the Nasser Higher Military Academy, told the Weekly. “We want the conflict to end and stability to be restored. We support anyone who can help achieve this.” The fate of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, says Khallaf, must be decided by the Syrian people at some later date, when the situation on the ground is calm. And Russian military action, argues Khallaf, “could lead to this much needed calm.” “Terrorism and extremism are spreading in a way that threatens the national security of our countries and stability across the region,” President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi said on Sunday. Speaking with Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi at his side, Al-Sisi stressed the urgent need to “unify efforts to firmly confront this abominable phenomenon.” Cairo and Moscow both agree that removing Al-Assad — a close Russian ally — is not a goal in itself. The power vacuum created by his forced removal after four years of civil and sectarian strife could decimate the Syrian state and see its territory fall into the hands of radical groups divided along sectarian lines. Following the meeting of US President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of last month's 70th UN General Assembly, Egypt was selected as a member of the international contact group on Syria. The contact group also includes Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, and was described by Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as bringing together the “most influential outside players” vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. The group is scheduled to hold its first meeting this month. Egypt, which has in the past hosted talks between Syrian opposition groups, is seen as a more honest broker than Turkey or Russia because Cairo has no hidden agenda. And in June, following a conference of Syrian opposition forces in Cairo, Egypt appeared to distance itself from Riyadh when it rejected any military solution and called instead for a political resolution to the crisis. Cairo's position has changed several times since March 2011. Under the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (2011-2012), Egypt was too focussed on its own political and security turmoil after the 25 January Revolution to play any significant role. Then, when Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi came to power in 2012, Cairo severed ties with the Al-Assad regime. Following Morsi's ouster, under Al-Sisi, Egypt has worked to restore its ties with regional and international players, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, which are at loggerheads over Syria. When Al-Sisi met with Putin in August the two leaders called for a coalition to fight terrorism in the Middle East. The response was muted and Russia decided to take the lead. Egypt and Russia held their first-ever joint naval exercises in June and, for now, Egypt is likely to continue intelligence sharing with the Russians, just as it does with the US-led coalition. There is a clear link between the failure of the US-led coalition against IS and Russia's decision to step forward and take action. “The coalition has not succeeded in its mission to destroy IS,” says Fahmi. “Russia is trying to combat IS in a more robust manner.” Meanwhile, the US coalition has been bogged down for months. “They are not serious at all,” says Khallaf . “If you are serious you need to change facts on the ground and you can't do that from the air. You have to deploy ground forces.” And if stamping out terrorism and IS is the goal, adds Khallaf, then the coalition should not have set out by insisting on Al-Assad's removal. Egyptian support of the Russian intervention has not played well with some of Cairo's regional allies, including Saudi Arabia. Riyadh remains adamant that Al-Assad must go. The Saudi position, says Khallaf, is a result of Wahabi opposition to all other Muslim sects. “We need to ask how IS has accessed so much money and other material support,” he says. “It's no secret that much of the funding came from hardliners in oil-rich countries.” He adds, “International cooperation is not the same as complying with allies' stipulations, be it Saudi Arabia or the US. Egypt won't compromise its strategy to please one party over another.” Fahmi believes Egyptian-Saudi relations are “strong enough to accommodate differences in tactics and emphasis.” Egypt is battling terrorists at home, not least in North Sinai where militant groups have pledged allegiance to IS. “Weakening IS in Syria will deter militants in Egypt,” insists Fahmi. Khallaf disagrees. “There is no connection between Cairo's support of Russia's strikes against IS and the war on terror inside Egypt,” he says. “We can clean up Egypt by ourselves. We have the resources to do it. But we also want the world to be serious about combating terrorism internationally by sharing information, drying up funds and halting the smuggling of arms to terrorist groups.”
