With Operation Decisive Storm, gone are the decades of political stagnation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The sons of the founder of the kingdom, the late King Abdul-Aziz, are moving away from political power. Despite the fact that King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz is the official ruler of Saudi Arabia, the real king, for practical purposes, is his son, Prince Mohamed Bin Salman, who is second in line to the throne. The grandsons of the founder of Saudi Arabia are taking over. It all happened overnight on 29 April, nearly three months after of the death of the late King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz. Officially, Prince Mohamed bin Nayef (55 years old) is now the first grandson of the founder of Saudi Arabia to be named a crown prince, followed by Prince Mohamed bin Salman (35 years old), who has become the youngest deputy crown prince in the history of the kingdom. Prince Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz, the former crown prince, was removed from power in a dramatic move that changes the balance of forces within the Saudi royal family, and opens the way for the younger generation to take over. A new political scene is being constructed. Sweeping changes are taking place in ministerial posts, public institutions including the media and sport clubs and in the economy. These sweeping changes that have taken place since the death of King Abdullah are raising many important questions. Answers to these questions may help us understand the “political logic” behind them, and construct the scene on the political stage in Saudi Arabia. THREE MAIN QUESTIONS: The first question is whether these changes imply a “redistribution of power” or a “change of the balance of power” within the ruling family. What do these changes mean? Do they establish a connection or disconnection with the old stagnant horizontal succession of power among sons of the founder of Saudi Arabia? The second question is whether Saudi Arabia can expect in the near future a smooth and orderly transition of power from King Salman to his heir, Prince Nayef, or a bumpy road leading the deputy crown prince to become the king ahead of his nephew? Rivalry between the two is, in my view, a pending political battle that will shape the future of Saudi Arabia. The third question is whether these changes will create another “stagnant political system” or will help move the whole system towards democracy based on a “constitutional monarchy.” And who will be the most capable of Within the house, money can buy loyalty. In the present situation, the former Crown Prince Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz was bought out by a reward of money and political influence. It is believed that Prince Muqrin received ten billion Saudi Riyals and that his son, Prince Mansour, was appointed as an advisor at the Royal Court of King Salman. Some other figures, including sons of the late King Abdullah, also received a combination of financial and administrative rewards. The old generation of the sons of Abdul-Aziz is out. King Salman himself, well known as the “wise man” of Al-Saud, had in the past distanced himself from direct involvement in political power, preferring to stay in the shadows at his post as governor of the Saudi capital Riyadh for decades. Perhaps for this reason it has become easy for him to implement the handover of power from the old generation to the younger one. Not only the transition of power to the younger generation was important. The most important feature of the handover of power is a clear break with the horizontal succession of power among heirs of the founder of Saudi Arabia. Alongside the appointment of Crown Prince Mohamed bin Nayef as the next in line to the throne, the king also appointed and gathered support for Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman to become second in line. The political system is being adjusted to suit the situation, where the House of Saud has thousands of princes who may cause trouble if each is assumed an equal right to hold power, as was the case in the past. Some figures have been pushed away from the political scene, including the sons of the late King Fahd and late Crown Prince Sultan. I can comfortably say that some appointments to high posts were deliberately made to smooth the road and maintain the changes that happened with sons of the late King Abdullah. This is the first time in Saudi Arabia's history that such radical changes have occurred, shifting the balance of power towards the grandsons of Abdul-Aziz. In the past, the kingdom went through events that implied a “redistribution” of power between half-brothers at the top of the royal family. Three of the most dramatic events were the ouster of the late King Saud, the assassination of the late King Faisal, and the handover of power to the late King Abdullah. This time, with sweeping changes being introduced by King Salman, the kingdom is going through a deep process of change in the balance of power, starting by changing the line of heirs from sons to grandsons of the founder of the kingdom. In brief, the latest changes in Saudi Arabia mean two things: handover from sons of Abdul-Aziz to his grandsons and a clear break with the old horizontal hierarchy system that kept political succession in the hands of the old generation. These latest changes create a dramatic shift in the balance of political power in Saudi Arabia. But they will also produce political rivalry between Crown Prince Mohamed bin Nayef and his deputy, Mohamed bin Salman. PRINCELY POLITICAL RIVALRY: This leads me to my second question. Is Saudi Arabia going to see a smooth and peaceful transition of power from King Salman to Bin Nayef and then to Bin Salman after Bin Nayef? The answer will depend on the wisdom of King Salman and on the nature of the personal relationship between Bin Nayef and Bin Salman. The situation could end up either friendly or very bitter. Crown Prince bin Nayef depends on his own achievements in fighting terrorism and the legacy of his late father Prince Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz. The present king, Salman, is also his direct full-blood uncle. As minister of interior, the crown prince enjoys good and close relations with United States officials in security agencies and anti-terrorism institutions. However, the crown prince suffers a power deficit both internally and regionally. He may be able to work in harmony with the younger deputy crown prince, Mohamed bin Salman, to make the handover of power easy, smooth and orderly. If he fails to do so, his deputy will be able to isolate him and repeat what King Salman did with his half-brother, former Crown Prince Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz. Changes introduced so far by King Salman are changing the distribution of power between the crown prince, Mohamed bin Nayef, and his deputy, Mohamed bin Salman, in favor of the latter. Each is a deputy prime minister and a minister holding a so-called sovereign post (the Ministry of Interior for Bin Nayef and the Ministry of Defence for Bin Salman). Each is supervising one of the two supreme councils: Bin Nayef is the head of the Supreme Council for Political and Security Affairs, and Bin Salman is head of the Supreme Council for Economic and Development Affairs. The two young rising stars in the House of Saud are holding the balance of power in the kingdom. In order to give Bin Salman political advantage, King Salman has made two important moves. The first came just one day after the appointment of Prince Mohamed bin Nayef as heir of the throne. The king stripped him of his “Diwan”. The Crown Prince Court was abolished and integrated into the Royal Court. It means that the crown prince has certainly lost his independent administration. This move may be followed by abolition of the courts of emirs. It will look odd to keep courts that provide princes of the royal family with leisure to set up independent administrations for their own official affairs. The principle move is clearly in favour of Prince Mohamed bin Salman, who is the special advisor to the king and the most prominent figure in the Royal Court. The second move was to separate Aramco, the world's biggest oil exporter, from the Ministry of Petroleum. Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman is now responsible for the Supreme Administration Council of Aramco. His half-brother, Prince Abdul-Aziz bin Salman, holds the post of deputy oil minister. He may soon become the Saudi minister of oil. But it all depends on the balance of power within King Salman's own house. His sons from his second wife, Princess Fahdah bint Falah Bin Sultan Al-Hithleen, are more closely connected to power more than others, including sons from the king's late wife, Princess Sultanah Al-Sudairi, who died in 2011. The king's son, Prince Mohamed, in particular has been at his side assisting him in political and defence affairs. Although we have not seen signs of rivalry between half-brothers, King Salman is keen to keep the peace within his own house and the House of Saud. THREATS TO PRINCE BIN SALMAN: Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman's path to power is not threat-free. On the contrary, Bin Salman faces three main threats that may change the balance of power in the Royal Court. The first threat is the eventual event of the death of his father King Salman. The absence of the king will distance his favourite son from power. The second threat is connected to the outcome of the war in Yemen. Operation Decisive Storm was one of the main driving forces that helped Bin Salman's political ascent. Now, with the operation officially ended without having achieved its goals, it could become his Achilles' heel. The failure of the Saudi war in Yemen will strongly discredit Bin Salman's political and strategic wisdom. The third threat is the strong relationship between the crown prince and US officials and security institutions. Such a relationship may not only protect Bin Nayef from Bin Salman's ambitions, but also provide Nayef with enough power to compete with Bin Salman. In the face of these three threats, King Salman may take a bold and unprecedented move by retiring, in months not years, after collecting enough support for his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, to become the next king. It is unlikely that the very ambitious, power hungry Bin Salman will wait until the death of his nephew, the present crown prince. It is also unlikely that Bin Salman can secure his position in the event of the death of his ailing father. A CONSTITUTIONAL MONARCHY?: Now, onto the third question: Will the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia become a modern constitutional monarchy? It is very difficult to see this happening, according to the basis of the Saudi political system right now. However, King Salman may be able to sow the seeds of a new modern political system in the kingdom. He is wise enough, politically strong enough and bold to the degree that may present him as the founder of a new political system in Saudi Arabia. Conditions to move from the present situation require the country to draft a constitution acceptable to the majority of tribal, religious and business leaders, together with prominent figures of the House of Saud. Saudi Arabia is facing the danger of being unstable, divided and weak. Instead of falling into the trap of instability or a civil war, the option of building a constitutional monarchy seems to be the right one. King Salman may succeed in convincing the royal family of this wisdom. He can also complement that with compensating the present crown prince in exchange for the promotion of Prince Mohamed bin Salman to become the king, keeping the throne exclusively within his heirs. The House of Saud is now facing a moment of truth. For all of its members, the question now is: “To be or not to be?” They have to choose. Looking ahead: To sum up, I would stress that changes introduced by King Salman of Saudi Arabia since he assumed power after the death of his half-brother, Abdullah, created a clear disconnect with the old political succession rules and a clear change in the balance of power within the Saudi royal family. Second, regardless of the fact that the king has brought the younger generation to the fore, the changes he introduced favour his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, thus creating potential political rivalry between the crown prince and his deputy. In the event of the death of the king, the deputy crown prince may loose his status. Even during the life of King Salman, his son will face many dangerous threats. Third, the best way for Saudi Arabia to escape falling into the trap of instability is for prominent leaders of the royal family, together with tribal, religious and business leaders, to agree to set up a constitutional monarchy. The war in Yemen is acting as an internal and external factor that will accelerate change in Saudi Arabia. The writer is chairman of the Arab Organisation for Freedom of the Press.
