Does Egypt face a demographic time bomb? Yes and No. Yes, if policymakers remain stuck on the same narrow path followed in the last 60 years or so. No, if policymakers realise that the world has changed and they have to invent new policies in order to balance and streamline the relationship between man and nature and to employ science and technology in creating new life for all Egyptians. According to official statistics, and if all given facts don't change, Egypt's population will increase by over 60 million between now and the year 2050. This is seen by many economists and policy specialists as a serious threat to development. Egyptians who have a country of one million square kilometres exploit less than one- tenth of their land and much less of their water fronts. Average population density in Cairo is close to 50,000 per square kilometre. In some parts of the capital the rate is twice that. Ironically, in Aswan, the density rate is second only to Cairo (about 14,000 per square kilometre), as inhabitants live on 0.2 per cent of the land there. Don't blame nature; blame policy. Policymakers are responsible for this distorted relationship between man and nature in Egypt. For example, in Aswan policymakers and governments (central and local) failed to invest in new resources, such as Lake Nasser, and in old ones, such as minerals and roads that are playing a vital role as southern commercial gates to Egypt's African neighbours. Let alone tourism and its great potential there. Natural resources, including underground water and minerals, can support life in no less than 50 per cent of the country's land at a much higher standard of living. Egyptians, who historically provided the Arab world with expertise in almost all areas of knowledge, from education to medical care and engineering, have now fallen to the level of providing the region with unskilled labour. Egypt imports more than half of its food. Cultivated land is lost to housing at a rate of 70,000 feddans a year. The misuse or underuse of natural resources is clearly a man-made mistake. DECENTRALISATION: The relationship between man and natural resources has long been distorted by bad policies and should be corrected. First, by providing for a significant move from the narrow Nile Valley to the open and liveable lands beyond. A population of 160 million in 2050 will not be able to live in the same area where we live now. Such a move is also a necessity for national security. Second, by departing from centralisation. Historically, centralisation breeds corruption, inefficiency and stagnation. The present situation is weighing heavily on Egypt's ability to move up the civilisational ladder and compete successfully with other countries. Cairo, the capital city in its greater boundaries, hosts almost half of all state employees, finance, investment, higher education and almost all media institutions and cultural life. There is no capital city in the world that enjoys such a favourable position. Moreover, Cairo has an unstoppable ability to grow beyond its boundaries. The latest proposal to build a new “capital” will mean that the boundaries of Cairo will stretch to three more governorates Suez, Ismailia, Sharqiya in addition to the two old ones, Giza and Qalyoubiya. A capital city of such a size will house one quarter (perhaps more) of the expected Egyptian population by 2050. In that context, any talk about democratisation and decentralisation makes no sense at all. COPING WITH POPULATION: It is not population growth that complicates the relationship with resources and nature; it is policy. In a domestic demand-driven economy such as the Egyptian one, the growth of population should be seen as a blessing. It results in rising demand for social and physical goods and also provides manpower with fresh blood. Aging societies, like Japan, are in a dilemma because new demand falls short of what the growing economy needs. Public works is not a substitute. One great factor for the economic strength in the US is its immigration policy. This policy aims at topping up the population with new and fresh blood from abroad. DEFEATING SCARCITY: The main question in regard to population policy is not to limit population growth through administrative means, but to let economic forces work efficiently to produce the right balance between man and nature. We know that in poor communities people tend to breed more. The cure is to fight poverty, not ordering the poor to cut down on the number of their children. One obvious feature of population control policies is the introduction of financial and social subsidies disincentives in order to force people to breed less. Sadly, we still have a lot of “Malthusianism” deeply rooted in Egypt's population policy. Governments and policymakers want others to pay for their failure to introduce policies able to help the economy deliver growth rates matching people's desire for better life. Overtime, growth should have no limits or constraints. Of course, this is not the situation in the short term, when limits and constraints should have their impact. When I was a young student in Cairo University I was taught that the economic problem is the question of “scarcity”: limited resources facing unlimited needs. Now, scarcity is seen as relative issue, relevant to short-term policies but not decisive in the long run. One can increase agricultural production and escape land and water constraints through scientific methods for instance, by applying genetic engineering technologies. Water scarcity is challenged by methods of water desalination or water treatment technologies and recycling. Unlimited sources of clean renewable energy, sun and wind for example, are becoming increasingly viable substitutes to traditional coal, oil and gas resources. Egypt has vast areas that can be developed as wind-turbine and/or solar energy farms. It can easily become a world energy hub, providing endless electricity supplies to its region and beyond. Perhaps some obvious constraints, mainly technological and financial, are limiting the progress of mankind in resolving the “scarcity” question. But these constraints are gradually loosing their impact. Egypt should make use of that. If we understand the term “knowledge-based economy” we should realise that defeating scarcity is one important pillar of such an economy. ENVIRONMENTAL BALANCE: On our way to rebuilding the relationship between man and nature, there is one additional and important issue that should be revised, which is the balance between growth and environment. For many centuries, growth has exhausted natural resources and polluted the air, water and soil. Pollution is now considered a serious threat to both the environment and to people's health. Currently, the emerging wisdom is to weigh any potential economic gains against any environmental damage. The pollution of water in some rivers and lakes has reached levels that killed almost all the marine life. Air pollution, CFCs and greenhouse effects are not limited to countries producing them, but travel freely with no border controls or national regulations. The issue of environmental balance in Egypt is far more serious. Egypt is perhaps the greatest oasis on earth created by the Nile River. For a long time, Egyptian civilisation has been established on the banks of the Nile, making it its structural backbone. Sadly, the river does not receive the respect it has always deserved. Since the completion of the High Dam, south of Aswan, complementary works have not been carried out properly or not carried out at all. Public works to clean up the waterway of the river were necessary in order to make up for the stoppage of the natural clean up operation of the flood season. After years of neglect, the river became ill. Moreover, people use the river waterway as a substitute for an absent adequate public sewage system. Some factories pump their untreated or poorly treated industrial waste into it. One of the most serious sources of pollution is Al-Rahawy sewage passageway in Giza. This wastewater passage dumps huge amounts of seriously polluted agricultural and domestic wastewater into Egypt's main source of life. Corruption, inefficiency and conflicts of interest between official institutions and governmental organs (governorates, the ministries of environment, interior, transportation, irrigation and agriculture) are adding up to the woe of the Nile waterway. If the Nile waterway is being heavily used as an industrial and commercial waterway, one should really feel worried. Movements of vessels or tugboats carrying coal, grain, raw materials and other industrial or agriculture products will also carry with them the higher risk of pollution. Add to that the likely danger of potential accidents. In my view, to build a good, efficient and modern railway system is a better, practical and more environmentally safe answer to rising demand for transportation. The present railway network in Egypt supports less than 25 per cent of passenger travel and about seven per cent of goods. Using the Nile waterway to move goods around the country is a dangerous environmental option. DESTROYING LAKES: Not only the river, but also the lakes are a strong environmental worry. Egypt's policymakers have long ignored the environmental factor in their plans to develop these lakes. In the 1960s, some experts held the view that part of Egypt's economic problem was the lack of appropriate fertile land. In order to become capable of producing enough food for the increasing number of Egyptians, they presented a plan to dry up parts of Egypt's lakes in the north of the country (Maryout, Edko, Borullous, Manzala and the Bardaweel in Sinai and Qaroon in Fayoum) and use the land resulting from that for agriculture. Governments, one after the other seemed more interested in destroying the marine life in these lakes than making use of their valuable resources. Moreover, some of these lakes have been turned into sewage and waste dumps. Smell the bad air of Maryout Lake when approaching Alexandria from the Desert Highway and you know what I mean! One can easily conclude that population and environment were two of the main victims of Egypt's development strategies since the beginning of the second half of the 20th century. In order to correct the wrongdoing, Egypt's economic policymakers will have to re-examine all issues related to population and environment. Egypt can't afford to reproduce failures. The writer is chairman of the Arab Organisation for Freedom of the Press.
