Discussion of 34 draft amendments to the constitution this week by the People's Assembly has reignited speculation over the succession of power in Egypt, reports Gamal Essam El-Din The People's Assembly last Monday discussed draft amendments to three articles of the constitution, 82, 84 and 76, top of a list of 34 amendments that President Hosni Mubarak had proposed on 26 December, some of which raise the sensitive issue of the succession of power in Egypt. While the amendments to articles 82 and 84 deal with the president's responsibilities and functions and the possible delegation of his powers to a vice-president, the amendment to Article 76 tackles presidential elections. Following a three-month debate on the amendments, the Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee of the People's Assembly on Monday finalised the draft of the three articles on Monday, raising protests from opposition MPs. Before Mubarak's request for the amendment of Article 82 of the constitution was submitted to the People's Assembly, it said that, "if on account of any temporary obstacle the president of the republic is unable to carry out his functions, he shall delegate his powers to the vice-president." However, the new text, discussed by the assembly on Monday, read that, "if on account of any temporary obstacle the president of the republic is unable to carry out his functions, he shall delegate his powers to the vice-president or prime minister in case the post of the vice-president is vacant. Whoever deputies for the president on a temporary basis cannot, however, be allowed to exercise three of the president's major supreme functions: amending the constitution, dissolving the People's Assembly or Shura Council and firing the government." MPs from the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) heaped praise on the new draft on its first reading. Mohamed Kiwita, NDP MP for the Delta governorate of Damietta, said that the new text names in clear-cut terms the persons who would replace the president if on account of any temporary obstacle he is unable to carry out his functions. "This saves the country from falling into a political or a constitutional vacuum in case the president is temporarily unable to fulfil his functions," Kiwita said. However, the new amendment was vehemently rejected by opposition and independent MPs. Ragab Hilal Hemeida, an MP for the Al-Ghad Party, argued that the article fails to mention what kind of "temporary obstacles" might prevent the president from carrying out his functions, and the text once again fuelled speculation about the succession of power in Egypt. "I am afraid that the new article has been drafted to serve one particular person, who could be appointed prime minister in the future in order to inherit power from the president," Hemeida said, alluding to Gamal Mubarak, 44-year-old son of President Mubarak. For his part, Mustafa Bakri, an independent MP with Nasserist leanings, asked, "why for more than a quarter of a century President Mubarak has refused to appoint a vice-president?" "I agree with Hemeida that enabling the prime minister to replace the president in the case of any temporary obstacles aims to serve the interests of a particular person in future," Bakri said, adding that the article reignited speculation about "secret intentions" designed to groom a "certain person" to be the next president, clearly alluding to Gamal Mubarak. Bakri suggested that the speaker of the People's Assembly, rather than the prime minister, replace the president in case of any temporary obstacle for as long as President Mubarak does not appoint a vice- president. "This will secure the political stability of the country and not let people favoured by the Americans be the next president of Egypt," Bakri said. Joining the fray, Mohamed Abdel-Aziz Shaaban, the sole representative of the leftist Tagammu Party, said that the new text of article 82 shows that the ruling NDP, and President Mubarak in person, was still determined to leave "the question of succession of power in Egypt ambiguous," raising "suspicions that they seek to select a certain person as president in the future." Instead, Shabaan proposed that the president and vice-president be elected on a single-ticket system. "This is the system followed by democratic countries and stable regimes like the United States and we should emulate it in order to secure the political stability of Egypt and base the succession of power on transparency and integrity," Shabaan said. In response, speaker of the People's Assembly Fathi Sorour insisted that, "Egypt is a republican country, and under this system the country is immune to any attempts to 'constitutionalise' the inheritance of power." While Article 82 of the constitution deals with temporary obstacles standing in the way of the president carrying out his functions, Article 84 relates to possible permanent obstacles. The new text of this article reads that, "in case of the vacancy of the presidential office or the permanent disability of the president of the republic, the speaker of the People's Assembly shall temporarily assume the presidency post; and, if at that time, the People's Assembly is dissolved, the chairman of the Supreme Constitutional Court [SCC] shall take over the presidency post. Neither the assembly's speaker nor the SCC's chairman, however, will be allowed to nominate themselves for the presidency while they are assuming this post on a temporary basis." According to NDP MPs, this text closes the door on any attempt to ensure that power is inherited. Gamal El-Zeiny, an NDP MP for Damietta, said that this article sends a clear-cut message to the opposition that "allegations about the inheritance of power are entirely unfounded." Bakri, however, responded by arguing that the article "gives just a short answer to the question of succession of power in Egypt." "Following the temporary period [60 days] in which the assembly's speaker or the SCC's chairman will assume the presidency, the door for presidential elections will be opened in accordance with Article 76," he said. Bakri added that although the amendment to Article 76 was at the top of Mubarak's 26 December initiative, and its new draft gave more possibilities to legal political parties to field candidates for the presidency, it still ensured that only the NDP would be able to win future presidential elections. "The new draft of Article 76 still makes it completely impossible for independents to run in any presidential elections, though these are supported by more than 95 per cent of the Egyptian people," Bakri said. Worse, he said, the existing legal parties competing against the NDP are so weak that none of their candidates can hope to win the presidency. President Mubarak proposed the amendment to Article 76 of the constitution in February 2006 in order to open the door to the first multi-candidate presidential elections to be held in Egypt. However, the drafting of the article in that year angered opposition and independent forces because it made it very difficult for them to run in future presidential elections. This fuelled speculation that the article was drafted in such a way as to open the door for Gamal Mubarak to be the next president. Gamal Mubarak has strongly denied that he has any presidential ambitions. After President Mubarak decided last December that Article 76 should be at the top of the list of the proposed constitutional amendments, it was re-drafted to stipulate that legal parties should have at least three per cent -- rather than the five per cent in 2005 -- of the seats in both the People's Assembly and the Shura Council before their candidates could run for election. The article, however, kept silent about any new privileges for independents, leading to allegations from the Muslim Brotherhood that the new draft article was aimed at obliterating them from political life, and alleging that intentions to groom Gamal Mubarak for the presidency were under way. As a result, the debate on the amendments was boycotted by the Brotherhood's 88 MPs in the People's Assembly this week.
