The uneasy truce between the Lebanese army and militants of Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State (IS) group may not last long. The recent slaying of three hostages, among a group of servicemen held by the militants, has all but ended the chances for a political deal. News from the turbulent Arsal mountain area tends to be sketchy, but as tensions rise, another round of fighting appears imminent. The Lebanese army, according to one report, has been shelling militant-held areas with artillery, airplanes, and Hellfire missiles. Al-Nusra Front is said to be threatening to occupy new areas, while IS threatens to execute more army personnel. Lebanon's public and officials, meanwhile, appear to be perplexed by the stalemate. Members of the 8 March Movement, which is led by Hizbullah, believe that a military solution is needed. Nabil Qawouk, a senior Hizbullah official, said that the country must give the army a full mandate to “liberate” the land held by Al-Nusra Front and IS. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has called for the speedy trial of Islamic prisoners, whose release has been a main demand of the militants. But Jumblatt's idea, which would lead to an exchange of prisoners between the army and the jihadists, doesn't appeal to everyone. If the central government allows itself to be swayed by the jihadists, this will be a further blow to its credibility, some say. As the stalemate continues, the families of the abducted army personnel are starting to take action. “There is no government in this country, every clan has its own government,” said a relative of one of the kidnapped men. But if such sentiments are allowed to spread, it may undermine the cohesion of the Lebanese army, which contains members of various ethnic and religious communities. In a recent development, the families of the kidnapped army personnel took hostage some residents of Arsal. These include some members of Al-Hojeiri clan, to which the town mayor Ali Al-Hojeiri belongs. Another influential member of this family is Sheikh Mosfata Al-Hojeiri, who is known to have close links with the jihadists. The army is trying to stay above the sectarian fray. And although it is keeping its distance from the mediation efforts, it is not discouraging it. But even the most disciplined of armies can feel the pressure when involved in a conflict of a sectarian nature. Also, the rough terrain of Arsal, with its steep cliffs and narrow paths, is hampering the army's ability to take decisive action. In recent weeks it appears that the dividing line that used to be clear between Al-Nusra Front and IS has all but disappeared. The brutal tactics of IS, having proved effective in gaining land and power, have earned the group a measure of admiration among certain jihadist groups, and Al-Nusra Front is no exception. In the case of Arsal, the two groups are working together, a not surprising development given that many of the IS fighters in the area are former members of Al-Nusra Front. This has posed problems for Qatari negotiators, who had hoped to play on differences between IS and Al-Nusra Front. As the two groups close ranks, negotiators are losing leverage over both. As the region hurtles towards confrontation between the maniacal energy of irregular jihadists and the slow tactics of overblown and bloated armies that hope to keep them at bay, the stalemate in Arsal may soon fall apart, with unpredictable implications for all involved.
