The National Alliance to Support Legitimacy (NASL) has begun to crumble. Late last week the Islamist-affiliated Centre (Wasat) Party announced its withdrawal from the coalition. NASL was founded on 26 June 2013, days before president Mohamed Morsi was removed. It had hoped to undermine the post-30 June political process by organising demonstrations, but these attempts all ended in failure. Is the Centre Party's withdrawal a prelude to defections by other NASL members? And might these withdrawals, happening just as some Muslim Brother leaders are being released from jail, signal the beginning of a national reconciliation process? The Centre Party's departure from the alliance, say observers, was inevitable. The party has undergone many changes since the Muslim Brotherhood came to power in 2012. Initially it supported Morsi, but turned against the Muslim Brotherhood when Centre Party Chairman Abul-Ela Madi was not appointed to head the new cabinet. After 30 June, however, the party realigned itself with the Muslim Brotherhood. During the Rabaa Al-Adawiya sit-in, Centre Party official Essam Sultan made regular appearances on the podium. He and Madi were later arrested. Another party official, Mohamed Mahsoub, who served as a minister in the Hisham Qandil cabinet, fled the country. The reconciliation initiative announced late last month by a group of dissident Muslim Brothers may provide a clue to why the Centre Party broke away from NASL. Amr Amara, one of the dissidents, said that the party was supportive of the initiative, which includes the possibility of understandings — “beneath the table” — that could lead to the release of party Chairman Abul-Ela Madi. It also holds out a possibility that the party will be allowed to re-enter the political process in forthcoming parliamentary elections. “Whether or not the party participates in the forthcoming parliamentary elections is contingent on the extent to which the regime agrees to preconditions for national reconciliation: the release of all prisoners and political detainees, a solution to the issue of the martyrs and a halt to constant media attacks against Islamists,” a senior Centre Party official said. He denied any connection between his party's withdrawal from NASL and the party's hopes of fielding candidates in parliamentary elections. “The party will strive to work with opposition forces to unite against the regime,” he said. Ali Bakr, a researcher on Islamist movements, says that the Centre Party's withdrawal from the pro-Morsi alliance is part of a scheme to shift the spotlight from the Muslim Brotherhood, at which point it will be possible to abandon the demand for Morsi to be reinstated. He believes that the party's decision to leave the alliance was only taken after consultations in Tora prison with leading Brotherhood officials. Bakr says that a deal has probably been struck, backed by the International Muslim Brotherhood, that would see the Centre Party run in parliamentary elections with Muslim Brotherhood members added to the party's electoral lists. The same strategy could be used by other parties that withdraw from NASL and then announce their intention to contest the parliamentary polls, he explained. Tarek Al-Malt, a member of the Centre Party's political bureau before he resigned from the party, describes the decision to withdraw from NASL as “a position that came late. He added, “But better late than never.” Al-Malt said he first urged the party to leave the alliance on 19 August 2013, when violent demonstrations on Ramsis Street erupted and attempts were made to occupy Al-Fatah Mosque. The party's refusal to listen to his advice was one of the reasons he resigned. According to Al-Malt, both Madi and Essam Sultan welcome the reconciliation moves. He claims that when he told them he had contacted Ziad Bahaeddin and General Mohamed Al-Assar in March of this year they greeted the move warmly. Ahmed Maher, Centre Party youth secretary, says the party's decision to withdraw from NASL had been discussed by party officials, including those in prison (Madi and Sultan) and abroad (Mahsoub and Hatem Azzam). A majority of senior leaders were in favour, Maher said. According to one source, former minister of local development Mohamed Ali Bishr, a Muslim Brotherhood official and member of the group's Guidance Bureau, has received an offer from a senior political figure close to the government that involves forming a new political party. “The government wants the new party to emerge in a way that suggests that there is a rift in the Muslim Brotherhood ranks,” the source said. He did not say what Bishr's response to the offer was. Other Brotherhood sources say that the Centre Party's break with NASL came after it received assurances its leaders would be released from prison. They predict that Abul-Ela Madi will soon be free to join other NASL leaders, including Mohamed Ali Bishr, Helmi Al-Gazzar and Hassan Malek, the business magnate who remains in Egypt and has never faced any charges, who are considered politically acceptable by the regime. The recent release of former MP Mohamed Al-Omda could be part of the same reconciliation plan. Al-Omda has produced a seven-point initiative that calls for recognition of the Muslim Brotherhood in exchange for the group's recognition of the presidency of Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi, release of former president Mohamed Morsi and creation of an impartial committee to investigate the events that followed 30 June 2013. Al-Omda believes his initiative will help heal the rifts between the authorities and the Muslim Brothers and its supporters. He stresses that his proposal is being made without prompting from, or prior agreement with, Muslim Brotherhood officials, and will be presented to the presidency, the Muslim Brotherhood and all active political parties within days. He rejected claims that he was released to negotiate on behalf of the Muslim Brothers. The initiative, he says, is a personal one. Al-Omda says the authorities did not speak with him before his release, and he did not discuss his plans with Muslim Brotherhood leaders inside prison. The Council of Guardians of the Revolution, recently formed and headquartered outside Egypt, continues to insist Egypt has been subjected to “a coup that is contemptuous of the Egyptian people and opposed to democracy and justice.” The council “rejects all initiatives and reconciliations.” Despite denials by Brotherhood leaders, and in the face of the public's rejection of the idea of any reconciliation with the group, the stage does appear to be being set for some form of national reconciliation. The Centre Party's withdrawal from NASL and the release of some Brotherhood leaders both point in this direction. Is the Muslim Brotherhood really willing to conclude a new pact with the government? In the past, loyal members would swallow the losses. It remains to be seen if, after so much bloodshed, they are still willing to do so once more. If Brotherhood leaders are pursuing a deal, the unavoidable question is: Why now and not sooner, when so much blood could have been spared?
