The footage of the United States' top diplomat promising hope, renewal and good government in South Sudan seems strangely surreal. The problem is that Washington has not identified precisely which of the two political rivals in South Sudan poses the greatest danger in the political death throes of the nascent nation. US Secretary of State John Kerry warned South Sudan President Salva Kiir of the risk of genocide in South Sudan if four months of deadly fighting there is not stopped. Kerry on Thursday discussed the violence with regional foreign ministers and African Union officials in Addis Ababa. He then flew to Juba, the South Sudanese capital. Kerry spoke of “unspeakable violence”. Restoring South Sudan to peace and prosperity will be a long and hard process. On the face of it, Kerry seeks to bring some sobriety to South Sudan politics. However, his host seems to give him grudging support. “There are very disturbing leading indicators of the kind of ethnic, tribal, targeted, nationalistic killings taking place that raise serious questions, and were they to continue in the way that they have been going could really present a very serious challenge to the international community with respect to the question of genocide,” Kerry said just before his daylong visit to South Sudan. It is not clear whether Kiir is firmly in charge. What is abundantly clear is that Kerry is keenly interested in salvaging South Sudan as was highlighted by his participation in the meeting of regional foreign ministers and African Union officials in Addis Ababa this week. Washington might well be the magic ingredient that will save South Sudan from descent into chaos. Kerry had secured a commitment from Kiir who promised to take “forceful steps” to implement a ceasefire agreement and form a transitional government. But the fact is that South Sudan is badly governed and beset by internal strife within the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). Moreover, the internal power struggles within the SPLM continue to be a drag on the economic wellbeing of neighbouring states. The real magic of South Sudan is oil, and potentially, perhaps, water. Peace talks between the protagonists in South Sudan are scheduled to take place in Addis Ababa under the auspices of Ethiopian Prime Minister Haile Mariam Desalegn. Energy poor Ethiopia, like Kenya and Uganda, is keen to develop closer economic links with a prosperous South Sudan. The Ethiopian prime minister paid a visit to Ethiopia's southwest region of Gambella that borders South Sudan, to inspect the security situation there. Addis Ababa fears a spill over of tribal rivalries in South Sudan into Gambella, one of the country's least developed regions. Gambella is inhabited by ethnic Nuer and Anuak peoples, akin to their Nilotic kith and kin in South Sudan. The deplorable security situation in South Sudan also concerns Washington. East Africa is among the fastest growing regions economically of the African continent. Countries like Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda are experiencing unprecedented economic growth rates. And until recently South Sudan was, according to the World Bank, the fastest growing economy in the entire world. East Africa still has formidable social and economic problems, even without the complications South Sudan creates. “The current president of South Sudan is the elected, constitutional president of a country. And Machar is a rebel who is trying to unconstitutionally take power by force. There is a clear distinction. There is no equivalency between the two,” Kerry was quoted as saying. The devil we know? In the South Sudan political arena many a Machar makes a muddle. Kerry publicly stated that he prefers Kiir to Machar, but most observers detect a hidden hesitancy. “The single best way for leaders and people in positions of responsibility to avoid the worst consequences is to take steps now,” Kerry was quoted as saying. Washington is impatient with the South Sudan predicament that impacts other key neighbouring allies of America. “We are not going to wait. There will be accountability in the days ahead, where it is appropriate,” he said. Yet, despite the political circus in South Sudan, Washington is not about to deploy troops in South Sudan. It would rather rely on its East African allies. Kerry was quoted as saying that he expected 2,500 African troops to be deployed in the near future, but stressed that a new United Nations Security Council resolution must first approve the move. Meanwhile, South Sudan and the World Bank's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) have signed important legal agreements that will facilitate the agency's ability to insure profitable development projects in South Sudan. But, economic prosperity is impossible without permanent peace. US Congressman Frank Wolf warned that South Sudan could become the “next Rwanda”. Wolf has called on US President Barack Obama to dispatch former presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush to South Sudan to diffuse political tensions. The Obama administration obviously views the travails of South Sudan as greed robed in egocentric political intrigue. “And also to begin the process of national dialogue — a process by which there is a beginning of discussion, real discussion about a transition government that can bring peace to the country,” Kerry urged the protagonists. The woes of South Sudan cannot be shrugged off. South Sudan's army (SPLA) cannot contain the insurgency. The SPLA stated that it regrets the defection of senior military officers from its third division, which covers the area of Warrap and Northern Bahr Al-Ghazal, as well as extending administrative command support to Unity state, describing the incident as “an unfortunate development”. The contagion of discontent is indeed infectious. In insurrection, the rank and file of the ragtag South Sudan army now find an outlet for their outrage and frustration with the corruption of politicians, which has soured many South Sudanese. The war in the country is often depicted as a tribal conflict between ethnic Dinka, Kiir's people, and ethnic Nuer, Machar's men. Yet, most Dinka and Nuer have lived together in peace for centuries and cattle rustling occurred regularly among these two Nilotic peoples, but not necessarily between Dinka and Nuer tribesmen: more often it took place between tribes and clans of the same ethnic group. The Dinka, in particular are subdivided into many tribal and clan divisions. A vast majority of the junior insurrectionist troops do not understand or speak either Arabic or English, and so most communication is in the Nuer language, the mother tongue of most supporters of Reik Machar. Juba Arabic is the lingua franca of South Sudan, and is widely considered the unofficial “official” language of South Sudan. Juba Arabic has been the most important umbilical chord with Khartoum, and there are many in the south that now yearn to re-join the north. Perhaps in aspiration more than in expectation the South Sudanese have rallied around the SPLA, and that gives the ruling party in Juba a chance to make a difference. The SPLA, with all its competing rival factions, must not throw this chance for renewal away. So when will the South Sudanese protagonists seal a deal? Everyone active in the region is hoping for a newfound amity and that includes regional powers such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, as well as Western powers and above all Washington. Also hopeful for reconciliation between rivals are humanitarian organisations and human rights groups. All players hope that Kiir and Machar will rise to the occasion.
