“It is unacceptable for Lebanon's destiny to depend on one person.” This is what Mohamed Qabbani, a parliamentarian from the country's Future Current, has said about the current crisis in Lebanon, where the formation of a new government has been deadlocked due to the insistence of Michel Aoun that his son-in-law stay on as minister of energy and water. The crisis shows that Lebanon's future production of oil is likely to fuel divisions in the country, rather than smooth its rough ride to reconciliation. The various Lebanese political parties, seeking an end to a ten-month stalemate over the new government, had come close to a solution that would have given the major parties equal shares in government. Even the daunting problem of the Shia group Hizbullah's involvement in Syria was being shoved under the carpet to bridge this crisis when all of a sudden Aoun, who leads the Free Patriotic Current (FPC), insisted that Jebran Bassil, currently minister of energy and water, should stay in his post. Aoun and his FPC supporters objected to the rotation of portfolios that the other parties, including his ally the parliamentary speaker and head of the Amal Movement Nabih Birri, had agreed to. According to this rotation, ministerial portfolios are supposed to rotate among various parties, giving everyone an equal shot at power and hopefully also reducing the possibility of corruption. It can be assumed that Hizbullah had initially agreed to the rotation, as Nabih Birri was negotiating on its behalf and on behalf of the 8 March Alliance in general, to which Hizbullah belonged, when the method was proposed. However, once Aoun had voiced his opposition, Hizbullah changed tack as its officials are reluctant to alienate the FCP, which commands the largest Christian bloc in the parliament. Aoun has given Hizbullah crucial political backing for years, starting from the 2006 war with Israel to the current strife in Syria. Hizbullah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is also on record as saying that “the resistance is heavily indebted to General Aoun.” As a result, instead of Hizbullah and Amal talking some sense into Aoun, Lebanon's two largest Shia organisations are now repeating his arguments verbatim. They have been accusing Aoun's opponents of trying to exclude the Christians from power by depriving them of the Energy Ministry. This latest setback has returned the country back to square one, with all sides ratcheting up their rhetoric. The Future Current has leaked reports that it intends to nominate Ashraf Rifi, the former internal security director known for his hostility to Hizbullah and Syria during his stint at the Interior Ministry, to this important post. The Hizbullah-led 8 March Current is now portraying the squabble over the Energy Ministry as an international plot to undermine Hizbullah and the FCP. The Lebanese newspaper Al-Safir recently argued that a local and foreign “mafia” was getting ready to siphon off Lebanon's future oil wealth. The newspaper also suggested that Washington, which is currently mending its fences with Tehran, was becoming less hostile to Hizbullah than it used to be. Meanwhile, the Saudis and the French are said to be taking a tougher stand on Hizbullah's domination of Lebanese politics. Thus, the current bickering in Lebanon, some commentators suggest, is in fact mostly due to divergent regional and international views on Hizbullah. As a way out of the crisis, Al-Safir has suggested that the Energy Ministry go neither to the 8 March nor the 14 March currents, but instead go to a Maronite Christian minister to be nominated by the country's Maronite Patriarch. But for the time being Lebanon seems to be stuck in a system inherited from its sectarian past, which allocates top posts on a quota system to various factions in the country. This quota system, relaxed after the end of the Lebanese civil war, is paradoxically now making a comeback because of the prospect of oil wealth. This oil, instead of offering Lebanon relief from its strife, seems now to be fuelling it, even as it still lies dormant at the bottom of the sea off the country's shores.
