For now, internal Israeli politics appear to be dictating the possibilities of movement on the Arab-Israeli peace front, writes Dina Ezzat Beleaguered Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is scheduled to visit Amman next week for talks with Jordan's King Abdullah on the Palestinian issue. Arab diplomatic sources say Olmert, still weathering calls to resign over his mismanagement of the war on Lebanon last summer, is buying time and unlikely to commit to anything more than rethinking his plan to suspend the twice-monthly meetings he agreed with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to hold with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Abdullah, they add, is simply maintaining Jordan's traditional stance as the foremost mediator between Palestinians and Israelis. Meanwhile, today in Cairo, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Jordan and Israel are meeting to examine the possible horizons of a negotiations mechanism between Palestinians and Israelis inspired by the text and spirit of the Arab peace initiative. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdul-Ilah Al-Khatib were assigned the task last month by a limited committee of Arab foreign ministers of pursuing contact with Israel to "promote" the Arab peace initiative. The Saudi-proposed Arab peace initiative, adopted by Arab leaders in 2002 and re-launched in March during the Arab summit in Riyadh, is an invitation for full Arab normalisation with Israel in return for an end to the Israeli military occupation of land seized by force in 1967 and a fair and legal settlement to the plight of Palestinian refugees. Israel for five years shrugged off the initiative, but recently, amid internal political turmoil, has expressed interest in the initiative while turning down any talks on the return of refugees or full withdrawal to the 1967 borders. "We thought that this is not the time to go to Israel in view of the current internal political crisis, but at the same time we did not want to lose the momentum created by the [re-launch of the] Arab peace initiative; hence the idea to invite the Israeli foreign minister to Cairo," Abul-Gheit told reporters this week. While the agenda of today's meeting was drawn up by Cairo and Amman, Arab diplomats acknowledge that the results will largely depend on the complicated political calculations of Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who is currently fighting her own political game to position herself as a potential successor to Olmert. Livni's star appears in the ascendant, while Rice herself made the unusual move of calling Livni Tuesday to convey her decision to cancel a planned trip to Israel in view of the current internal political crisis there. Prior to her arrival in Cairo, Livni said that Arabs needed to be more flexible in their approach towards the Arab peace initiative. "The linkage between the relations of the Arab world with Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is something we can understand," she said, "but I do believe that to put to Israel... a plan saying, 'these are the parameters for a final status agreement'... that is wrong." Arab, including Egyptian and Jordanian, officials say they are aware of the difficulties of their task. They add that they are not particularly concerned that by receiving Livni in the midst of intense Israeli political furore they may appear to be giving her a vote of confidence as a successor to Olmert. Better Livni than Likud hawk Benyamin Netanyahu, they say. During today's talks, sources reveal, Abul-Gheit and Al-Khatib will tell Livni that she could soon be meeting a few more Arab foreign ministers (those of Qatar, Morocco and Bahrain) if she is able to convince her government to live up to some of the demands tabled last month by the Arab ministerial committee, especially in relation to the termination of the economic siege imposed on the Palestinians and a suspension of the construction of the separation wall. "The economic file is a priority," said Sallam Fayad, Palestinian minister of finance in Cairo Tuesday following talks with Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa prior to a scheduled meeting of the latter with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon in New York Thursday. The Moussa-Moon talks will focus primarily on the Palestinian question. The depressed Palestinian economy in the West Bank cannot rebound unless Israel lifts restrictions on movement that have stymied growth and investment, the World Bank reported yesterday. "The policy of closure... has resulted in a highly fragmented Palestinian economy," the bank stressed. Most recently, Israel turned down American-proposed benchmarks for future action based on enhancing security measures in return for a higher degree of freedom of movement for Palestinians. Benchmarks for progress are likely to be discussed today in Cairo and in Amman Tuesday when Olmert and Abdullah are likely to meet. Also to be discussed in both sets of talks are growing Palestinian fears of a possible Israeli reinvasion of Gaza. In statements made earlier this week, Olmert -- keen to improve his leadership image -- threatened reinvasion if the Palestinian Authority failed to curb the occasional firing of Qassam rockets on Israeli settlements. For their part, the Ezzeddin Al-Qassam Brigade threatened to kill captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit if a reinvasion took place. Cairo and Amman are concerned about a potential re-escalation and are likely to entreat Israeli interlocutors to exercise wisdom. They know, however, that with Olmert challenged by Labour's Ehud Barak, an advocate of aggressive Israeli military action, the troubled prime minister might find in theatrics the only way to secure his grip on power.
