Egypt is embroiled in a host of open-ended scenarios, writes Dina Ezzat "We are working on it. We are hard at work on it. This is a crucial national security issue but nobody knows exactly how things will turn out. It will take time before the resolution of this problem starts to take shape." This was the reply of a senior Egyptian official to a question about the prospects of a deal to end current disagreements between Egypt and Sudan, the Nile's two downstream countries, and the rest of the Nile Basin states -- Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya. Upstream states are demanding a reworking of Nile water quotas in a way that would undermine Egypt's annual 55 billion cubic metre share. "We are not out there to antagonise anybody, but we really cannot do without our share. We are already suffering shortages and if our share was to be touched we would really run into problems," said the official. Ethiopia is the source of 80 per cent of Egypt's share of Nile water, and Addis Ababa has been unfriendly to Cairo for some time. The recent visit of a high-level delegation, including Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Minister of State for International Cooperation Fayza Abul-Naga, to the Ethiopian capital last week, signalled Cairo's willingness to try and find a way out of the dilemma. But according to a source who took part in the delegation, Ethiopian officials are being tactful but in the end seem determined to work against Egypt preserving its quota. An Egyptian proposal presented to Addis Ababa to prioritise cooperation, with third parties, to improve the efficiency of water management and minimise water loss, was well received but not accepted as a substitute for a re-working of existing quotas. The already knotty problem may soon get even more complicated. In anticipation of what many concerned diplomats -- Egyptians and others -- suggest is the inevitable division of Sudan, on Monday Egypt announced the establishment of a South Sudan Support Unit. Affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the new unit will work closely with the Egyptian diplomatic mission in Juba to provide technical and financial support for the government of south Sudan should the people of the south vote for secession. "It is not clear how things will go. We would have preferred Sudan to remain united but it looks as if this is not the wish of the people. The separation of south Sudan means that our immediate backyard will be divided and that there will be yet another Nile Basin country with demands of its own on water share," commented a concerned Egyptian diplomat. "We don't want to get into a confrontation with the Khartoum regime but we also want to have the best relations possible with the south. This is a national security issue." Egyptian officials are equally perplexed over yet another crucial national security file: the situation in Gaza. Speaking on background, officials admit the situation in Gaza is becoming very difficult to manage, in terms of relations between Cairo and Hamas, and in view of the humanitarian crisis caused by the siege imposed by Israel. Egypt has yet to agree on a mechanism to allow easier access of goods into Gaza with Israel, the Palestinian Authority and other concerned international partners. "Whatever happens we insist that anything that passes through Egypt -- beyond basic humanitarian aid -- should be screened in the presence of international monitors; this is crucial to avoid Israeli allegations that we turn a blind eye to the smuggling of weapons into Gaza." Egypt has turned down a French proposal of direct sea access to Gaza under the supervision of European monitors on the basis it could allow for the smuggling of weapons into Egypt through Gaza. Egypt has also turned down a European proposal for the processing of commodities and construction material across its borders with Gaza in the absence of representatives of the Palestinian Authority on the other side, arguing this would amount to recognising Hamas as the authority in Gaza. "This is something that we will never do," said one Egyptian diplomat. What will happen then? Again: no clear answer. Nor is the preponderance of questions over answers confined to the foreign front. "It might happen before the parliamentary elections and it might happen after. And it is not clear whether it will be a major reshuffle that includes a change of prime minister or a minor reshuffle to change unpopular ministers ahead of the elections," said a source from the Policies Committee at the ruling National Democratic Party. There are "different views" within the NDP, he says, as to when the reshuffle should take place and to what extent. Some favour a reshuffle ahead of the parliamentary elections to give the public "an impression" that the government will be changed if it fails to serve the interests of the people. "Those who favour an early reshuffle think it would make the NDP more popular in the eyes of the public ahead of the coming elections," argues the same source. Those who are opposed to the early reshuffle "are convinced that the composition of the cabinet will not directly affect the elections and as such it would be better to keep any reshuffle for after the election, as traditionally happens." "They feel that, following the medical trip the president made to Germany last March, enough questions have been asked about the stability of the regime. They do not want to provoke further concern for the public." Nor is it clear whether President Hosni Mubarak plans to run in the presidential elections scheduled next year. "The word is that he will but he has announced nothing himself and the party leaders are uncomfortable about raising the issue right now," said the same NDP source.
