Al-Ahram Weekly, which has been keeping track of security-related developments in the Sinai, has counted 36 terrorist incidents in the northern part of the peninsula during the past two weeks. In the clashes between armed groups and military and police forces that these incidents triggered, 42 gunmen and civilians and four security men have died. In addition, a Central Security soldier was killed by smugglers at one of the tunnels beneath the border with Gaza. Monday brought the highest level of violence directed against civilians, that accounted for most of the casualties in an attack against a bus transporting workers to the Arish Cement Company, which is operated by the Armed Forces. Five died in this incident, including a child, and 15 were wounded. Friday saw the most intense engagements with the army. The most salient points of confrontation were at Al-Masaaid, Al-Joura and the Central Security camp at Al-Ahrash. The frequency of attacks ranged from a minimum of two a day to a maximum of five in a single day, three of which were simultaneous. In addition, the range of targets has expanded from fixed military and police checkpoints and control posts to mobile patrols. In most of the operations, the gunmen used four-wheel drive vehicles and combinations of light and heavy weaponry. However, most recently there has been an appearance of RPG-7 launchers which were most likely smuggled in from Libya, and which were used in three major attacks. The G-7 grenade is capable of penetrating armoured vehicles, generally by being fired at the doors. The scope of the terrorist operations has been largely limited to the 40-kilometre area between Arish and Sheikh Zuweid and extending northward towards Rafah along the border with Israel up to the Karm Abu Salem crossing. People in northern Sinai have grown accustomed to the sounds of gunfire at night, when fighting intensifies between the gunmen and the joint army-police forces. Eyewitnesses tell the Weekly that while this phenomenon is not exactly new to them in a society in which the use of guns is normal, in the current crisis there are foreigners, alien in thought and ways, involved in the battles which most people in this area had anticipated. However, many are very alarmed. Mohamed Hamad who lives in Arish told the Weekly that he and his family felt compelled to leave and return to their native home in Beer Al-Abd, located 80 kilometres away from the city, because of the climate of terror and intimidation that the gunmen have been creating at night, even in areas where there are no security installations. Hamad added that there are frequent sorties of military aircraft which sometimes fly at very low altitudes near residential areas. This is an unfamiliar experience for the inhabitants of urban areas such as Arish. Sinai political forces confirm a link between the violence in northern Sinai and the events in the capital concerning the Muslim Brotherhood. They have said that even some who were opposed to this group or its president have begun to heed fatwas to act in the defence of what is portrayed as an assault against the Islamist project. Therefore, around 22 groups of different political outlooks have come together and are believed to have a combined force of around 12,000 fighters that are working in small units in order to perpetrate the operations. According to sources that have been monitoring the military performance in this area, the security threats are not as great as had been expected in such areas as Gabal Al-Halal, although there are special forces backed by Apache fighters who are equipped for missions in that rugged mountainous terrain. Rather, the problem is with the open fronts at Mazarie Al-Zeitoun near Arish and in Al-Sot with respect to Sheikh Zuweid and Rafah. This helps explain why the Risiya checkpoint has been targeted more than 40 times since the January Revolution. A Muslim Brotherhood source, who spoke to the Weekly, accused the army of fabricating those attacks in order to pin the charge of terrorism on the Brotherhood. The source, who had been responsible for one of the main issues related to Sinai under the former president, said, “the intelligence agencies are responsible for those operations. The attack against the bus was the result of a missile shot from a plane that was either Egyptian or Israeli. The army is preparing for an operation targeting Gaza and it is supporting Mohamed Dahlan who it plans to bring into Gaza along with his followers in the Rafah camp which is supervised by the army. But, the Brothers in Gaza were ready to confront this plan and this is what caused the decline in the army which is trying to fabricate an imaginary theatre of operations in the Sinai in order to shut down and control the tunnels, in spite of the fact that some of them [in the army] are partners in these tunnels.” The source, who had spoken on condition of anonymity, refused to comment when asked about the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and the jihadist and takfiri groups in Sinai. That a strong relationship exists between the two is taken for granted among people in the Sinai. As Sinai activist Musad Abu Fagr put it, “there is a high level of open coordination between the two sides. This is no longer a secret to anyone in Sinai.” The Weekly spoke to several tribal leaders in Sinai. Curiously, a number of them in the Sheikh Zuweid area are reluctant to declare a position with respect to recent developments there or to act to stop them. Nevertheless, a prominent elder there said he was on good terms with the jihadist group leaders and that, prior to 30 June, these had refused to take up arms against the army. He added that some jihadist leaders who had previously refrained from taking a political position or from involving themselves in politics, have now begun to issue fatwas in response to which there have emerged new groups with names such as “The Legitimacy Brigades” or “The Legitimacy and Victory Brigade.” He added that these groups are independent of any tribal position. At the same time, the source stressed that the situation there was worse than what was being presented in the media. People in Sinai are especially worried by those “alien elements” who hail from the “jihadist” fighting fronts in North Africa and the “Asian” Al-Qaeda and who are still coming into Sinai in spite of tightened security at the borders and around the tunnels. Hossam Al-Shorbagui, the son of a leading Muslim Brotherhood figure in Sinai, said, “those tribal leaders are worried by elements who they regard as a threat to themselves, especially now when even tribal authority has lost its prestige.” A source who formerly worked for intelligence framed the situation with respect to the tribal elders and added another perspective: “There is the additional problem that the relationship between the tribes and the police is still poor. Therefore, there is a lot of disinformation. Even with respect to those elements that claim to reject violence, everyone knows the official agencies to which they are allegiant.” Al-Shorbagui also remarked, “I believe that some party wants to generate a huge battle in Sinai in order to sap the strength of the army.” Commenting on this point, the intelligence source, who has long familiarity with the situation in Sinai, said, “We should not say that everything is under control. However, I am certain that we have a high combat efficacy among units of the army that are trained for such confrontations, let alone among the conventional forces. These new units will play a major role in the coming round. However, in view of the severe shortage of intelligence on the ground, it looks like the task will be longer and may evolve into an anti-terrorism programme.” At the time of writing, two army squadrons were crossing Salam Bridge over the Suez Canal on their way into Sinai. Army sources in Sinai report that the military operations will expand in the forthcoming days, in accordance with developments on the ground. A highly placed military source said that talk of seeking Israeli permission to bring in additional troops of other such movements is out of context. There is a security agreement and a level of coordination to which both sides are committed. Intelligence exchange is also possible with respect to the border areas. He pointed out that there is high-level security coordination at the international level in the field of anti-terrorism and that many countries of the Middle East are involved, together with the US, via the major anti-terrorist programme. Nevertheless, this source did suggest that Israel had been constantly complaining about the increase in troops in northern Sinai ever since the incident of the kidnapping of Egyptian soldiers a few months back. Cairo ignored those complaints because of the national security risks that dictated that those troops had to remain there. However, when gunmen on Sunday targeted a point at the international landmark 10, known as Kidsh Barnie, on the border with Israel, the reality of this need struck home. Another military observer remarked on a related development with respect to Israeli reaction towards the heightened Egyptian military presence in northern Sinai. Pointing to the downing by Israel of a pilotless aircraft (Hermes-450) inside Israeli borders, he said that this aircraft had been presumed to be on a mission in Egyptian airspace. He added, “I am very worried about [the reaction] from that direction. But we are confident and have the ability to handle such challenges.”
