South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has found his voice on oil and Nile water. He urged both Egypt and Sudan to drop their opposition to the 2010 Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), also known as the Entebbe Agreement (in reference to the Ugandan city where the NBI was officially inaugurated). Kiir called on Cairo and Khartoum to join the NBI. The ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) headed by Kiir is often accused by its detractors of trading in the cultural despair of the South Sudanese people in conjunction with politically and economically marginalised people of the remote backwaters of Sudan, such as Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile. The SPLM is a staunch supporter of the SPLM-North, its sister organisation in Sudan. Such moral and logistical support has long been a bone of contention between Juba and Khartoum. Khartoum, in sharp contrast to what it views as Juba's gushing gruff, gives a sense of a nation under siege. Khartoum is determined to devise effective resistance to what it regards as the malign intrusion of Juba and its ally, the SPLM-N, in its domestic affairs, fearing that the sprawling country would disintegrate further with the potentially oil-rich provinces of Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile eventually joining South Sudan or becoming independent political entities. It is against this dismal backdrop that Kiir warned that he would refer oil arguments with Khartoum to African Union (AU) mediators. Khartoum, in turn, is conniving with Cairo to address the Nile water dispute after neighbouring Ethiopia announced the construction and near completion of the Renaissance Dam, virtually diverting the course of the Blue Nile and by implication reducing the share of Nile water for Egypt and Sudan. South Sudan explicitly stated that it is not threatened by Ethiopia's latest move. Ethiopia has been a key mediator in the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. Khartoum is hesitant, therefore, in antagonising Addis Ababa. If Ethiopia's latest ambitious hydroelectric project is a targeted act of provocation as some pundits in Cairo and Khartoum claim, and is designed to have a random and multiplying impact, then Cairo and Khartoum are not prepared to stand idly by. South Sudan cautioned both Egypt and Sudan against making any rash aggressive move. Juba also exhorted Cairo and Khartoum to drop their opposition to the NBI and collaborate more closely with the upstream countries that have signed the NBI. It is against this tense atmosphere that South Sudan's Ambassador to Egypt Anthony Kon stressed that his country has no obligation to join or recognise past Nile water agreements, such as the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan, since it was not an independent nation at the time. Other upstream Nile Basin countries, signatories of the NBI, concur. Upstream countries dismiss Egypt and Sudan's fears as merely febrile and unsubstantiated claims, and they have in turn tabled a framework agreement stripping Egypt of its right of veto over all upstream projects, including those designed for irrigation and hydropower. This was signed by six nations so far. Sudan has stood firmly in opposition to amending the 1929 and 1959 Nile water treaties. South Sudan, which became an independent state in July 2011, signed the NBI. Speaking on Monday, Kiir warned that Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir was mobilising for war with South Sudan. “The people of South Sudan should remain calm and patient as we work with the African Union to resolve this impasse with Sudan,” Kiir told reporters, while condemning in a strongly worded statement what he described as the “aggressive attitude” of Khartoum. However, a despondent Kiir on Monday also questioned the credibility of the African Union, charging the continental body with failure to take the lead in resolving its current oil row with Khartoum. Kiir specifically cited the 54-member body's failure to impose its own recommendations as per its communiqué concerning the oil dispute between Juba and Khartoum, which stipulated that both countries must resolve their differences according a designated timeframe before any unilateral decision can be made. Juba considers this AU pussyfooting over the petroleum problem as unacceptable and would like to see the body take a more confrontational stand towards Khartoum, whose President Al-Bashir is wanted for alleged crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. Moreover, Juba accused Sudan of launching military incursions into its territory and threatening oil installations, a charge Khartoum vigorously denies. The spokesman of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), Colonel Al-Sawarmi Saad, dismissed the accusations made by Juba, describing them as “baseless”. Sudan's information minister, Ahmed Othman, however, noted that Sudan intended to close the oil pipelines from South Sudan within 60 days. In turn, South Sudan army spokesman Philip Aguer maintains that SAF troops invaded Kuek, an area located about 10 kilometres northwest of Renk county in oil-rich Upper Nile State, forcing the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), the armed wing of the SPLM, to retreat. “The Sudan Armed Forces violated the security arrangement and crossed into Kuek. They have remained there. They are still in the area until this moment. They are in control,” Aguer told reporters in Juba on Monday. Accusations and counter-accusations are akin to a sordid soundtrack of ritual anathemas. But SAF spokesman Colonel Al-Sawarmi Saad retorted that Juba's allegations were made in response to the announcement by the director of Sudan's National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) about the SPLA's occupation at a time when Khartoum has completed its withdrawal according to signed agreements between the two countries. The conflict threatens to metamorphose into a blood-splattered tableau vivant spilling over into neighbouring countries and dragging the entire region into incessant conflict. In retaliation for Juba's protestations and alleged interference in Khartoum's domestic affairs, Sudan on Sunday put on hold nine security and economic pacts with South Sudan, including vital oil shipments, but conceded that Khartoum remained committed to good relations if Juba ended support for armed opposition groups in Darfur and Sudan at large, including the SPLM-N. Khartoum's controversial move commenced soon after an order from Sudanese President Al-Bashir to temporarily halt oil shipments through the vital pipeline carrying South Sudanese crude for export through Sudan's Red Sea port. “This latest turn of events brings into question the credibility [of the AU mediators],” Kiir angrily retorted in exasperation, but quickly added: “We remain optimistic that the AU will intervene accordingly. We urge both regional and international governments to diplomatically engage with Sudan in order to protect the lives of the citizens of both nations, and to encourage Sudan to engage in peaceful dialogue with their internal rebellion.” “President Al-Bashir has declared jihad. However, I maintain my pledge to you and the world that I will not take the people of South Sudan unnecessarily back to a state of war,” he promised. South Sudan, is reliant on 98 per cent of its revenues from oil, has massive petroleum deposits but the impoverished country is landlocked and reliant on Sudan's ports for export. South Sudan Information Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin concurred with Kiir that Juba is “essentially interested in peace”. He told Al-Ahram Weekly that Khartoum is aiding and abetting terrorist South Sudanese groups that are causing chaos in rural areas. Khartoum, on the other hand, claims that South Sudan is backing armed opposition groups in Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile. A group called the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) has launched attacks on several towns, briefly occupying the major city of Umm Rawaba in Kordofan, central Sudan, in April. South Sudan's Petroleum Minister said Monday the country would continue to pump oil to Sudan despite Khartoum's threats. South Sudan has piped around seven million barrels of crude to Sudan since resuming production in April. “This is increasing every day,” South Sudan's information minister told the Weekly. South Sudan pumps around 200,000 barrels a day from its main Palouge Field in the war-torn Upper Nile State, an area Juba claims Khartoum is fomenting trouble in. South Sudan has emerged as a major African oil producer. However, the irony is that its oil export infrastructure continues to be firmly under Khartoum's control. Meanwhile, Khartoum and Juba have not been able to agree on how much South Sudan should pay Sudan to use the pipeline. There are already plans underway to export South Sudanese oil through the Indian Ocean ports of neighbouring Kenya. Khartoum, its critics in Juba claim, is deliberately spitting in the bowl of South Sudan's “soup” to make its oil riches its own. Clearly, too, Juba has planted its flag in the camp of the upstream, non-Arab nations of the Great Lakes region of Africa and Ethiopia.
