The politics of Syria's opposition is an epic story of warring factions in a strange and changing ideological milieu. Abdel-Rahman Al-Rashed in Asharq Al-Awsat depicts the internal divisions of the Syrian opposition as a tale of intrigue, sinister plots and betrayals. Al-Rashed, general manager of Al-Arabiya television and the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, looks at the dynamics of the leadership elections of the Syrian opposition, zooming in on the person of Ghassan Hitto, the Syrian Kurdish leader. “All eyes are on the Syrian people who are set to choose a leader for the Syrian National Coalition next week. The process began approximately two months ago when members of the opposition disagreed over Ghassan Hitto's appointment. A prospective choice who was not popular among Syrians, Hitto failed to establish a satisfactory government during the period following his ‘election'. The most likely new candidate for this post is Ahmed Tohme. Contrary to Hitto, Tohme is a well known face among the Syrians, an Islamist, and is based in Syria. Hitto is well known among the opposition since he participated in the ‘Damascus Declaration', a statement of unity issued in October 2005,” Al-Rashed wrote. Indeed, he dwells on the symbolism of having Tohme, a Sunni Islamist, as leader of the Syrian opposition and examines the implications. “If Tohme succeeds, he will have to visit the world's major cities to persuade the international community of the integrity and unity of the opposition, as well as the fact that it represents all the Syrian people,” Al-Rashed explains. “The real danger facing the success of the Syrian revolution is on behalf of the revolutionaries themselves, their leaders, and their internal division. The Syrian peoples, first and foremost, and then the rest of the world, must be convinced that an alternative option to the Syrian regime exists, and that it is active, responsible and popular,” he goes on to say. “The question is whether Tohme will be able to handle the situation at a time when internal and external forces are conspiring against the Syrian people and their revolution,” Al-Rashed concludes in Asharq Al-Awsat. In ‘The Iraqisation of Syria' Youssef Al-Dayni compares the Syrian political scenario with that of neighbouring Iraq. He is especially critical of the Machiavellian role played by the United States. “The disregard shown by the international community towards Syria, particularly by ‘mastermind' the US, continues to cast its shadow over the developments in the region. Unfortunately, not only is the Obama administration floundering in its attempts to establish a mechanism and limiting foreign intervention, there is also what might be called a ‘campaign' being launched by some US politicians to fuel fear of repeating the Iraqi scenario in Syria. The campaign is not limited to bashful statements by US foreign policy officials; rather, in the last few weeks many articles have appeared in the US press expressing fears of Syria sinking in the Iraqi swamp. Despite the many ideal ‘models' provided for post-Saddam Iraq, they were disrupted by the prejudiced performance of the Al-Maliki government, rekindling the sectarian ball of flame which has yet to die down. Perhaps, the recent events that took place during Sunni protests in Kirkuk — in which more than 50 people were killed — are a good example of what has been going on over the last 10 years,” Al-Dayni notes in Asharq Al-Awsat. So a lost decade for Iraq, and what is in store for Syria? “The ‘Iraqisation' of Syria is not out of the question, not because of Al-Qaeda — which is an effect rather than a cause — but because of the continuing survival of the Al-Assad regime which, through repression and oppression, managed to deviate the Syrian uprising from its course, turning it into a sectarian and regional conflict,” Al-Dayni observes. In an article by Hussein Shobokshi entitled ‘Waiting for the final scene' the writer contemplates the Syrian endgame. “The amount of concern, fear, blood, damage and destruction in Syria seem to be commensurate with the gravity of the problem as well as with the price Syrians have paid over the last 40 years. Syrians have suffered badly from injustice, corruption, tyranny and the deceit of Al-Assad's regime, which ruled the country for more than four decades with an iron fist. Therefore, it is not surprising at all that several heterogeneous parties rush to the rescue of this regime; although they seemingly contradict each other, Al-Assad's international supporters agree that the dictator remaining in power is vital to achieving their major and dynamic interests in the region,” Al-Shobokshi reasons in Asharq Al-Awsat. “Russia finds in the Syrian regime a chance to secure a last foothold for its weaponry and intelligence operations. As for Iran, it sees the Syrian regime as an infant it has nurtured over the past years,” he notes. From his critique of the Russian discourse, and his disdain of Iranian policy towards Syria, Shobokshi moves on to the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah. “Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah, overtly admits his military support, in both weapons and soldiers, to the Al-Assad regime, dispatching a large number of Hizbullah's militias to Syria to support Al-Assad's regime in crushing the rebels. By doing so, Nasrallah is executing the orders of the Iranian government and the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, whom Nasrallah has admitted he considers an authority on several occasions,” he summed up. Similar sentiments are expressed by other commentators. Raghida Dergham wrote in the London-based pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat on the “priorities of Russia's stance on the Syrian crisis”. “However high-ranking an individual might be, or however ‘full' the powers they might be entrusted with in the process of political transition in Syria, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad will remain in Russia's opinion president with full powers, a ‘wartime president'. This could be an issue of disagreement or one of understanding in the relationship between the United States and Russia, which is being managed by both US State Secretary John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in the hope of paving the way for a successful summit between their two presidents, Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin, next month,” Dergham notes. “Their focus now is on holding an international conference that has become a priority of the utmost importance primarily for Russia. Moscow wishes very much, and adamantly so, for Iran to have a seat at the table of Geneva Two, an international conference that will include Saudi Arabia and other regional powers alongside the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council,” Dergham stresses. “There is talk of Russian diplomacy having succeeded at convincing American diplomacy to agree to exclude Qatar's leadership on the Syrian issue,” Dergham warns tongue-in-cheek. “Russian diplomacy is behaving at this stage with the utmost confidence, and on the basis that the Syrian president will remain in power until the presidential elections one year from now. Russia is confident that the opposition in Syria will grow increasingly fragmented, that the rift within it will deepen, and that it is the opposition itself that will bring about its own defeat,” she insists. “Geneva Two, as the conference has been dubbed, may represent an opportunity for Russia to lead on the region's issues, if the US administration were to continue to suggest to Moscow that it is in need of Russian leadership, and if it were to continue to backtrack on its stances towards both the Syrian president and the Syrian opposition equally,” Dergham postulates. “The alliance of defiance, to which can be added China, bears confessional elements to the same extent as it has strategic bases: Muslims in Russia are Sunni and number about 20 million. The five Muslim republics neighbouring Russia, too, are Sunni. And Chechnya, where Russia continues to fight a war, is Sunni as well,” Dergham extrapolates. “This is why Russia's leadership considers it a national interest to require an alliance with Iran, which has resolved to lead the Shia in confronting the Sunnis. Both want a new world order that would not be based on the unipolar hegemony of the United States. And China agrees with them,” she concludes. Dergham's cynicism is echoed in the columns of other Arab commentators.
