A few weeks ago, the Israeli newspaper Maariv republished an article originally written by Jeffrey Goldberg for The Atlantic, which focuses on relations between Barack Obama and Binyamin Netanyahu. Obama, Goldberg says, is convinced that Netanyahu has aligned himself so much with the settlers that he is unable to make any real move towards peace. According to Goldberg, Obama is of the opinion that unless Israel changes its policies, it will turn into an apartheid state. Obama's displeasure with Netanyahu is no secret, says another Israeli newspaper. According to an editorial in Yediot Aharonot, the US president is “holding a mirror to Israel's face” — that Obama is clearly arguing that Netanyahu is going to make Israel a pariah state. Obama may not be distancing himself from Israel, but he is distancing himself from its prime minister, who made no secret of his preference for Obama's Republican opponent in the last US presidential elections. Netanyahu, for his part, keeps portraying Obama as a weakling and a man lacking in resolve when it comes to Iran. The Israeli prime minister claims that Obama's pressure is what kept Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. Netanyahu is particularly critical of Obama's refusal to issue an ultimatum to the Iranians. Obama's visit to Israel is scheduled for 20 March and may involve a trip to Ramallah or Jericho in the West Bank. There is also a possibility of Obama attending a meeting with Netanyahu, Mahmoud Abbas, and King Abdullah in Jordan. What does the visit mean? Is this an attempt on Obama's part to put Netanyahu in his place, or is the US president still hoping to revive the peace process? Obama is known to be in favour of a two-state solution. But so far there has been no progress in this direction, partly because of the settlements Israel keeps building in East Jerusalem, the very settlements that Obama knows are a major hurdle to peace and yet cannot find a way to force Israel to quit building. One wonders, is Obama truly interested in pressuring Israel to halt settlement building? Is he really willing to push Israel to accept the creation of a Palestinian state along the borders of 4 June 1967? To answer this question, let's consider the fact that the Israeli Ministry of Defence, on 10 February, announced plans to build 346 housing units in the occupied West Bank. Even more disturbing is the news, coming from Palestinian religious and political figures, that Israel has actually begun rebuilding the Second Temple. Zionist authorities, we are told, have pulled down Islamic government buildings dated to the Ayoubid era and situated only 50 metres away from Al-Aqsa Mosque to make room for a multi-purpose Jewish structure. The recent comments of Avigdor Lieberman, former Israeli foreign minister, also have a bearing on this issue. Israel, he stated, is not in a position to conclude a lasting peace deal with the Palestinians and must seek instead to sign a long-term interim agreement. His statements were apparently timed to dampen any expectations arising from Obama's upcoming visit to Israel. Let's also keep in mind that Obama will be going to Israel at a delicate time in his presidency, as the Republicans are fighting him in Congress every step of the way, and not just over fiscal issues. Times such as this are not conducive for pressures on the Israelis, as Chuck Hagel, Obama's nominee for defence secretary, found out during a recent hearing in Congress. Hagel, who is originally a Republican, came under blistering attack by fellow Republicans just because he referred to pro-Israel pressure groups as the “Jewish Lobby”. Let's also consider the fact that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the next Israeli government is unlikely to be weak. The coalition of Netanyahu's Likud and Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our Home) may have seen its Knesset majority slip from 42 to 31 seats, but Netanyahu can still strike a bargain with Yair Lapid's rightwing party, Yesh Atid (There is a Future), which has come second with 19 seats. Obama, says Yediot Aharonot, is eager to stop Israel from waging a war on Iran. If this were true, Israel would expect a quid pro quo. For example, that Obama would stop talking about the two-state solution or urging a fair deal with the Palestinians. As for the rebuilding of the Second Temple, one cannot expect it to come up in Obama's talks. It didn't even make it into the agenda of the recent summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Cairo.
