Turkish model won't work in Egypt: Amr Adly

Author of 'Political Foundation for Development' says Turkish model should be placed in political context, not imported wholesale

Diplomat and researcher Amr Adly discussed his book among scholars and members of the public at the new branch of Kotob Khan bookstore in Maadi on Monday.
The Political Foundations of Development, published by Sefsafa, is based on Adly's PhD thesis completed at the European University in 2010.
Introduced by publisher Mohamed El-Baali, the book compares the political economic paths of Egypt and Turkey. Although Adly says he is not left-wing, his views on wealth distribution place this study within the leftist tradition.
Journalist Wael Gamal, the guest speaker, explained how the book is the first to describe the Turkish model, held up as a model of governance by Islamists. However, as Gamal said, it's important to put this experience in its specific historical context.
"While trying to use the same model, namely produce growth via building exports, Egypt depended heavily on borrowing and opened the market very quickly, while Turkey reduced its borrowing and opened the market gradually, going 'by the book' and thus succeeding," Gamal said.
The 'expert state', as Adly described Turkey, allowed the private sector to play a partnership role in the economy, while harnessing all its negotiating power and support to development the economy, and not just for the benefit of a small segment of society, as happened in Egypt, Gamal explained.
The Turkish model, however, cannot be taken for granted, Gamal concluded, because the profile of Turkish exports changed, starting in 2008, and now includes more raw materials and less industrial or manufactured value-added goods.
"The Egyptian historical model depended on paying for political stability, using corruption and clientalism," Gamal concluded.
Adly, who spent almost a year translating and changing the thesis into a book, was inspired by Samer Soliman'sThe Strong Regime and Weak State(2005).
"Turkey came into fashion nearly 10 years ago, and many compared it to Egypt on various levels. This wasn't a coincidence, because there were some commonalities – both countries depended on exports of raw material and thus were states based on rent rather than production. A third of Egypt's state budget is from rents, and half of the exports. Turkey, although similar to Egypt from 1960 until 1980, took a leap such that by 1990 that had changed and some 80 percent of exports were from industrial production while in Egypt it was only 40 percent," Adly stated.
"Romanticising the Turkish model is a political game to sell an oppressive regime that offers a level of economic development, but it is far from sustainable, because it's now once again heavily dependent on imports of basic foods,” he stressed.
"There's no way to repeat such a model with its specifics. Not only because of the global financial crisis and globalisation, but also because the markets that bought the exports are no longer there. Tunisia is a great example of this because it was able to export high added value goods, but still suffered from corruption and poverty, leading to a revolution and ending up in a similar position to Egypt.”
History is revealing, Adly explained. The 1980 coup in Tunisia brought enormous oppression and chaos, completely closing the political space for years. The government eventually signed a deal with the IMF and transformed the economy, much like Egypt is going through today.
"Today's crisis in Egypt is double the challenge they faced back then in Turkey: there's no longer the money to fund oppression or to correct the economy," Adly concluded.
As for Egypt's future, Adly said, "It's important to represent the interests of both workers and businesses, for its wrong to oppress any segment of society."
The key to reform is to look at its key resource, and that is the demographic advantage of the young generation that ought to get into both production and political action, hence the importance of investing in education, health and infrastructure. This is where the battle for the coming years will be," Adly concluded.
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