Lebanon will suffer from the wounds of the massive Beirut explosion for decades to come, and so will its immediate neighbour Syria. But in the short term, the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad looks set to garner benefits from it. Syria and Lebanon share a 375 km border, most of which is controlled by the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah, a political and military supporter of the Syrian regime and one of the reasons the regime has been able to resist the 2011 Revolution that has sought to topple it. Beirut's ports are in theory managed by the Lebanese, but in practice many believe they are under the control of Hizbullah, and imports directed to the group routinely enter Lebanon through ports not run by the Lebanese administration. Over the past nine years of war, the Syrian regime has benefited from the Beirut port thanks to Hizbullah, as it has been able to dodge the economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU. Hizbullah has facilitated the entry of goods to Syria via Lebanese companies, and they are smuggled into Syria through crossings the group supervises. The embargo against Syria has recently tightened with the implementation of the US Caesar Act on 17 June, meaning that the Syrian regime cannot trade with countries able to supply it with weapons to boost its military power. As a result, in the medium term the Syrian regime will suffer as a result of the Beirut blast. Imports through the port have been brought to a halt until Hizbullah can prepare another away from the eyes of the Lebanese administration. The reconstruction of Syria will likely be shelved as well, as Russian plans to rebuild Syria depended on the Beirut port as Syria's own are small and need maintenance and expansion. Hizbullah has also suffered owing to the explosion, with many Lebanese pointing accusing fingers at the group due to the fact that there are arms warehouses located near the ammonium nitrate that exploded at the port. Any decrease in Hizbullah's popularity will automatically mean a decline in popularity for the Syrian regime. But in the short run, the explosion will benefit the Syrian regime because it will be able to urge speedy international help for Lebanon. Beirut has been denied aid in the past because of Hizbullah, and now there will be calls to lift the embargo on Lebanon. Another benefit for Syria is that the explosion has drawn attention away from war crimes in Syria and international efforts aiming to impose a political solution on the Syrian conflict, something the regime in Damascus vehemently rejects. International calls to help Lebanon and lift the sanctions will probably benefit Lebanese political circles supporting Syria, such as Hizbullah and the forces of Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri. It is also expected that Hizbullah and Syria via their Lebanese supporters will be able to open land routes to connect Lebanon with the rest of the world, also stimulating trade between the two countries, increasing foreign currency inflows and raising the exchange rate of the Syrian pound. According to analyst Abdel-Rahman Al-Hag, “the Beirut port explosion will allow a portion of the aid allocated for Lebanon to flow to Syria, alleviating the repercussions of the Caesar Act on the Syrian currency, which should appreciate in a matter of days.” Many observers fear the Syrian regime and Hizbullah will use any positive international moves for Lebanon to alleviate the pressure on them or even bring it to a temporary halt, something which will probably be the case. The Syrian regime also stands to benefit from the Beirut blast concerning the displaced and refugees in Lebanon. These will likely be used as a negotiating card with the West through threats to allow them into Europe should Lebanon further collapse. Although the Lebanese explosion left more than 40 Syrians dead, Hizbullah and supporters of the Syrian regime in Lebanon will not hesitate to use it to their benefit regardless of the suffering involved. Syrian analyst Monsef Salama said there were direct and indirect repercussions of the Beirut blast on Syria. The direct consequences are that imports through Beirut will not flow smoothly, and the indirect ones are that Lebanon may now carry out economic and political reforms. This could require ceding to the demands of the major powers, including taking Hizbullah's hands off Lebanon's key resources and its ports, Salama said, something that could be a major blow for the Syrian regime. If the reforms go ahead, Lebanon will no longer be the Syrian regime's backyard. Perhaps the time has finally come for the two countries to walk separate paths 20 years after the expulsion of Syrian forces from Lebanon and nine years of Hizbullah's fighting on the Syrian side. *A version of this article appears in print in the 13 August, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
