DUBAI – Iraq's Arab neighbors fear a split Iraqi election could further marginalize minority Sunnis and hope any coalition government formed by the Shi'ite frontrunner will resist Iran's sway. Many Sunni Arabs had wanted a stronger showing by secularists, who they now hope will bring cross-sectarian balance to any coalition government that could be formed by Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. "These election results show that there is a Shi'ite wave in the region which threatens Arab security in the region. Iran has a hidden role in the Arab region and it supports Shi'ite elements in the area, particularly in Iraq," said Magid Mazloum from the Center for Gulf Studies in Cairo. "Sunnis in Iraq are a scattered minority stuck between Shi'ites on the one hand and Kurds on the other. This is bound to create instability in the country." Early election results showed Maliki pulling ahead on Sunday in an election Iraqis hoped would end years of sectarian strife, but a divided vote suggested long and fraught talks to form a government are ahead. But the overall picture, reflecting a nation fragmented by decades of sectarian and ethnic conflict, was still incomplete a week after the vote. Results released so far represent just over a quarter of 12 million votes cast, and may change. Sunni-led Arab countries, particularly in the Gulf where there are significant and marginalized Shi'ite minorities, worry about the repercussions of Iranian influence in Iraq. They are concerned that the Shi'ite majority is trying to deprive Iraq's once dominant Sunnis of their fair share of power. They fear meddling by Shi'ite non-Arab Iran in Iraq, an Arab country with a Shi'ite Muslim majority, could incite their own Shi'ite populations and that sectarian instability in Iraq could spill over. "The big worry for us is that such a divided and sectarian Iraq is easily penetrated by regional powers and here of course Iran comes as the biggest and meddling regional power," said Emirati analyst Abdul-Khaleq Abdullah. "That really does not settle very nicely with the GCC, the smaller Gulf countries," he added, referring to a bloc of six Gulf Arab states, including top oil exporter Saudi Arabia. The outcome of Iraq's first parliamentary poll since 2005 will shape its future as its stability is tested by an upcoming U.S. troop withdrawal and political struggles undermining Iraq's efforts to re-establish itself on the world stage.
