Tensions between the Turkish government and the army have driven the country into a dilemma that needs calculated movement on the part of both sides to reach a solution. The government has accused top military personnel of plotting a coup. Some of them are in service, and most of them are retired. A meeting between Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Army chief of staff General Ilker Basbug did not resolve the crisis. The government has accused the officers of planning ‘Operation Sledgehammer' to topple the government since 2003. One of the top generals said, while the police were taking him in for questioning, that the real battle has started. The Turkish army has toppled four governments since 1960. The ruling Islamic-leaning AK (Justice and Development) Party chose in February to uncover the plot in a power show to revenge former Islamic-leaning premier Necmettin Erbakan and his Welfare Party, which was dissolved. The presidential office declared that the political tension would be resolved through the constitution. However, the Turkish constitution may be the cause for dissolving the ruling party if Prosecutor General Abdurrahman Yalçinkaya files a suit in the constitutional court accusing the AK Party of threatening the secular basis of the state. Erdogan planned for constitutional reform firstly to give power to civilian courts to try military personnel and secondly to remove obstacles against forming political parties. The court released some military top personnel making some observers wonder why they had been arrested in the first place. If the premier wants to reform the constitution, then the government has violated the present constitution by referring to civilian courts. The government used an article of the constitution to dissolve a Kurdish party but, when its own party became threatened by the same article, it declared plans to reform the constitution. Therefore, any constitutional reform may bring about legal Kurdish parties that are not tolerated at present. The government counts on its economic success although this crisis has drastically affected the bourse and its consequences will affect direct foreign investment. The military counts on its constitutional role to protect secularism, but any coup would be against the parameters of the European Union and would diminish Turkey's chances of joining the EU. This is more important for a secular than an Islamic-leaning party. One of the opposition MPs stated frankly that the US does not want a military coup now. What are the scenarios to end this crisis? Both the government and the military have strategic aims that will force players to play a win-win game. The first of these aims is keeping the homeland integrated and diminishing the chances for a Kurdish state. The second is keeping the possibility of joining the EU even if this hope is far from reachable at present. The third is maintaining economic growth. The fourth is consolidating the Turkish model as a Middle East democracy. Most probably, the government wanted to make a deal over the Prosecutor General's intention of going to the constitutional court to dissolve the ruling party. For this reason, Erdogan said that he planned for the constitutional reforms to be discussed in parliament by the end of March in order to give time to strike a deal with the secularists and the military. He knows that the military can risk incurring EU and US rage after a coup as NATO needs Turkey as a vital ally. (Turkey has the second most significant military force in Afghanistan.) The US bases in Turkey are vital for US plans in the Middle East and Central Asia. However, a military coup might cause chaos and instability with drastic economic effects. Only a win-win deal can end this current crisis. [email protected] Hany is an Egyptian writer, who regularly contributes to the Mail.
