CAIRO - If a famous author of dramatic works were to write an imaginary story about a revolution about to happen in Egypt, critics would describe him as a writer with a wonderful imagination. But if he were going to write a non-fictional story, he would best start with the bombing of the Two Saints Church in Alexandria in the very first hours of 2011. The explosion was an allegory of what was awaiting the Egyptians last year. It was obvious that the country was going to erupt sooner or later. Last year was supposed to witness presidential elections. Speculation was rife that Mubarak, who appeared increasingly frail, might not run in the 2011 elections, rather seeking to install his son, Gamal, as his successor. Both options were unappealing to Egyptians. Another thing that added to their anger was the manner in which the then National Democratic Party (NDP) undeservedly swept the majority of seats in the 2010 parliamentary elections. The results of the elections prompted anger in the streets, but that was nothing new. The frustration had been smouldering beneath the surface for many years, exploding from time to time. In addition to political grievances, people continued to suffer from economic and social hardships. The Alexandria tragedy was, at the time, the latest in a series of crises and setbacks hitting the Egyptians. The sinking of a ferry left more than 1,000 Egyptians, most of them poor, lost at sea; an uncontrollable fire gutted the historic building of parliament; terrorists attacked Sinai resorts, labour strikes affected nearly every industrial sector; and there were sectarian incidents too. Alexandria was also the venue for the brutal killing of Khaled Said, a young man who died in disputed circumstances in the Sidi Gaber area of Alex on June 6, 2010, having been arrested by police. Photos of his disfigured corpse spread throughout online communities and incited outrage over allegations that he was beaten to death by security forces. A prominent Facebook group, ‘We are all Khaled Said', moderated by Wael Ghonim, brought attention to his death and contributed to growing discontent in the weeks leading up to the January 25 Revolution, as the people began to see the police as their enemy rather than their protector. For the people, the police had stopped protecting them and were only concerned about protecting the regime. No wonder that the young Egyptians chose Police Day – January 25 – to stream into the streets and express their anger at Mubarak and his police. The protesters' grievances focused on legal and political issues including police brutality, emergency laws, lack of free elections and freedom of speech, uncontrollable corruption, and economic issues including high unemployment, inflation and low wages. A nation erupts The primary demands from the protest organisers were an end to Hosni Mubarak's regime, lifting the Emergency Law, freedom, justice, a responsive non-military government and a say in the management of Egypt's resources. The massive protests continued in many cities, as Egyptians refused the concessions announced by Mubarak. Finally, Omar Suleiman, the then newly-appointed vice president, announced Mubarak's resignation, entrusting the Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces with the leadership of the country. Nationwide celebrations immediately followed. The 18-day revolution can be described as a political explosion. Deeply-rooted political powers vanished, to be replaced by many new and old players who have since been busy fashioning Egypt's new political scene.
The harder they fall One of the big gains of the revolution was to thwart Mubarak's scheme to let his son inherit power. More political gains soon followed. The SCAF dissolved the disputed parliament and suspended the Constitution in response to demonstrators' demands. On 16 April 2011, a court order dissolved the NDP, which had wielded uncontested power in State politics. It was usually considered a de facto single party with authoritarian powers inside an officially multi-party system, from its creation until the resignation of Mubarak. On March 28, 2011, the SCAF introduced Law on Political Parties which eased restrictions on the establishment of new political parties in Egypt. The issuance of the law was followed by the establishment of many parties of different persuasions, the most influential being the Freedom and Justice Party, formed by the Brotherhood, the Free Egyptians Party, the Salafist Al-Nour (Light) Party, the Justice Party and the Revolution Party. Some of these parties later formed alliances which ran in the recent elections with unified lists. They included the Democratic Alliance for Egypt, consisting of the Freedom and Justice Party, the Ghad el-Thawra Party, the Dignity Party, the Socialist Labour Party and the Liberal Party. The Egyptian Bloc consists of the Free Egyptians Party, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party and the National Progressive Unionist Party, while the Far Right Islamic alliance is made up of Al-Nour Party, Al-Asala Party, and the Building and Development Party. These three alliances were among the big winners in the elections, along with the secular, liberal Al-Wafd Party.
The rise of the Islamists One of the biggest winners since the revolution are the Muslim Brotherhood, the opposition group banned under the Mubarak regime, which repressed them for decades. In the early days of the revolution, many experts thought that the size and power of the Brotherhood had been exaggerated by the ex-regime and that they would be unable to seize a majority in parliament. Meanwhile, the Brotherhood themselves announced that they would contest nearly 30 per cent of the parliamentary seats, but would not have a presidential candidate. Their two greatest gains are that they are no longer banned and that they have established the Freedom and Justice Party as their political arm. Many people were surprised when nearly 10 million votes in the recent parliamentary elections went to the Brotherhood's party that landed nearly 47 per cent of the seats. Founded by Hassan al-Banna in the late 1920s, the group have influenced Islamist movements around the world with their model of political activism combined with Islamic charity work. Though officially banned and subject to frequent repression, the Ikhwan led public opposition to the ruling NDP of Mubarak, who had been in power since 1981. This is why so many people voted for them. According to experts, the sweeping victory of the Brotherhood can be put down to the fact that they were well organised and ready for the elections. They were closer to the people than any other party because of their social and charitable work. But what was really astonishing was that Al-Nour Party that has managed to snatch 27 per cent of the vote. The party, dominated by the ultraconservative Salafists, did not exist until a few months ago. They seek to impose strict Islamic law similar to Saudi Arabia, where women must be fully veiled and alcohol is banned. The religious orientation and the popularity of some Salafist Sheikhs, especially in rural areas, may be the reasons underlying this victory, as well as the tendency of the people to give the Islamists a chance. As for the liberal parties, they were able to secure nearly one-third of the parliamentary seats. Military in power Another major change in the political scene has been a military council ruling Egypt. Although hailed at first by the revolutionaries for protecting the revolution, the military council has also been criticised from time to time, mainly on the grounds of slow decision-making process and the reversal of some decisions. Some critics argued that what happened in 1952, when the Free Officers who toppled monarchy in Egypt and seized power for themselves, might happen again. However the military council stresses that it is committed to delivering authority to an elected civil authority, chosen by the people, as soon as possible. The SCAF has been offering services and aid to the people, as well as helping to restore security and even offering financial aid to Egypt's Central Bank. It has maintained channels of communication with several Egyptian political forces, even establishing a Facebook page to communicate with Egyptians. The army will always be remembered for liberating the country from a corrupt monarchical regime in July 1952 and then restoring Egyptian honour and the Sinai, by defeating Israel in October 1973. But the surprise appearance of posters of the military's top officer, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, alongside the slogan ‘Egypt Above All', has fuelled widespread suspicions that the generals want him to be the fifth military president in a row since the armed forces seized Egypt's government in 1952. The SCAF soon refused the suggestion reiterating that the military would not field a candidate. Tension between the revolutionaries and the military council has been apparent on many occasions. One of these was the ‘Maspero events last October, when peaceful protesters, most of them Christians, were attacked by military police. At least 25 people were killed and more than 200 injured. That anger boiled over again in mid-November, as tens of thousands of protesters returned to Tahrir Square, the epicentre of the revolution, setting off days of street battles with the military, resulting in a heavy-handed crackdown on demonstrators that left at least 40 people dead. In the midst of all of this, the military council insists that the presidential elections will go ahead as planned in June.
Al-Azhar's emerging role With the rise of political Islam, with the Brotherhood and Salafists gaining the majority, many politicians and activists are looking to Al-Azhar, with its moderate brand of Islam, for religious advice and to resist fundamentalist, extremist tendencies. Al-Azhar recently proposed a bill of rights upholding freedom of expression and belief, ahead of the drafting of the new constitution. The Al-Azhar document is the latest in a series of moves by the institution to raise its profile as Islamists rise to political prominence – and to rehabilitate its own image after decades of being seen as a tool of the ruling regime. Secular Egyptians, liberals and Christians, in turn, have welcomed its role, hoping it will give religious support for preserving broader democratic rights that they fear conservatives will try to limit. A previous document proposed by Al-Azhar, also backed by intellectuals, supported the Arab revolutions and the right to democratic change. But some voices call for Al-Azhar to make some institutional reforms. They would like this institution to be freed from governmental influence and its top Imam to be elected, rather than appointed.
The key player In spite of these changes and emerging powers, the key player is still the Egyptian people themselves, who have finally decided to have their say in their country's politics. It was they who have since the revolution ousted an unpopular president and two prime ministers, while massive demonstrations also helped boost the transition to democracy. The unprecedented turnout for a constitutional referendum in March and the recent parliamentary elections prove that Egyptians will have their say on the country's future. Still we have to wait and see. Will the people give up on political participation for any reason? What role is awaiting the military in the future, and what might the Islamists bring to Egypt?
