A new research paper by the African Narratives think tank suggests that US-Africa relations could significantly cool during Donald Trump's second term as president, contrasting sharply with the approach taken by the Biden administration. African Narratives is a Pan-African non-profit research organisation dedicated to reshaping global perceptions of Africa while tackling its most critical challenges. With offices in Cairo and N'Djamena, and a diverse team of researchers spanning the continent, the think tank conducts rigorous, evidence-based research, policy analysis, and advocacy to amplify authentic African voices and perspectives. The report, titled "US-African relations: transformations from the era of Biden to Trump," examines the trajectory of US foreign policy toward Africa under both administrations, highlighting potential shifts in engagement and priorities. Donald Trump Under President Joe Biden, the United States sought to strengthen its influence across the continent through initiatives focused on security and development. African Narratives notes that Biden's administration outlined its American strategy toward sub-Saharan Africa in August 2022. This strategy aimed to confront challenges such as democratic transitions, military coups, terrorist operations, and armed movements, while also addressing escalating international competition within the continent. "The American administration worked to restore its relations with the African continent, after that the continent witnessed a significant decline in its priorities during the reign of the American president "Donald Trump," the report states. It adds that this decline was "exploited by some other countries, which greatly strengthened their relations and presence with the countries of the African continent, especially China and Russia." However, the report also acknowledges that tensions arose between Washington and some African nations, particularly in the Sahel region, towards the end of Biden's term. A key point of contention has been the presence of American forces, with some countries echoing the sentiment previously directed at France and calling for their withdrawal, especially after changes in ruling regimes. "Washington has also become 'undesirable' within many countries of the continent; where the calls of many countries of the African continent to withdraw the American forces from their country have recently escalated, which is similar to the attitude of the Sahel countries towards France, especially after these African countries witnessed a change in the ruling regimes loyal to the Western countries," the report says. The African Narratives analysis anticipates a different approach as Trump returns to the White House. A second Trump administration, is expected to deprioritise Africa in its foreign policy agenda, according to the report. This shift is attributed to Trump's "America First" policies, which could strain relations between Washington and the continent. The report raises specific concerns about the potential consequences of Trump reverting to policies reminiscent of his first term. These include the possible repeal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change, and increased reliance on fossil fuels. "Africa will occupy a late position in American foreign policy under the Trump administration, and of course relations between Washington and Africa will be affected by Trump's victory in the American presidential elections, to form Thus, one of the most important determinants of the relationship between the United States and the countries of the African continent," the report states. The think tank outlines several key motivations driving the American presence in Africa, including: * Strengthening military and security dominance: The U.S. seeks to counter the growing influence of international and regional forces by maintaining a military presence and forging military cooperation agreements. * Promoting economic relations and sustainable development: The U.S. aims to foster economic growth in Africa through trade deals, loans, and grants, with a focus on countering Chinese economic influence. According to the U.S. Department of State, there have been over 800 bilateral trade and investment deals between Washington and African countries since 2021, valued at over $18 billion. * Securing sea lanes: Protecting vital trade routes in the Horn of Africa and combating piracy are key priorities. * Supporting democracy and good governance: The U.S. aims to promote democratic principles, although the report notes inconsistencies in Washington's approach to military coups and human rights records. However, the report also identifies obstacles faced by the Biden administration in maintaining its influence. Niger's cancellation of a military agreement with Washington in March 2024 and Chad's suspension of American military activities in April 2024 underscore the challenges to the U.S. presence in the Sahel region. The report cites "American arrogance towards Niger," the rapprochement between Niger and Russia, Niger's quest for revenge against Washington, the military council's involvement in relations with Iran for uranium exports, and the suspension of American military aid as reasons for Niger's escalation against Washington. The rise of Russian influence in Chad, a lack of trust in Western systems, growing internal pressures, and the efforts of the Chadian authorities to obtain new gains are also cited as the main reasons for Chad's escalation against Washington. The African Narratives report warns of several potential consequences stemming from these shifts, including: * Escalating tensions between Washington and Sahel countries. * Efforts to tarnish Washington's image in Africa. * The growing influence of terrorist groups in the African Sahel region. * A "domino effect" of African nations rejecting Western influence. Looking ahead, the report expresses concern about the potential ramifications of a second Trump administration. It suggests that Trump's policies could negatively affect Africa in several key areas: * Repealing the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA): This trade agreement, which provides duty-free access to US markets for many African countries, could be at risk. * Climate issues: Trump's skepticism about climate change and potential withdrawal from international agreements could have a significant negative impact on Africa, which is highly vulnerable to climate change. * Immigration: Trump's strict immigration policies could limit the flow of African immigrants to the United States. * Humanitarian and development aid: Restrictions on American aid could harm African countries that rely on this support for health, education, and humanitarian relief. * Counter-terrorism: Reduced American military support could lead to a resurgence of terrorist groups in Africa. The report concludes that a second Trump administration is likely to adopt a more hard-line approach to U.S.-Africa relations, potentially undoing some of the progress made under President Biden. This shift could have significant consequences for the African continent and its relationship with the United States.
