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Prisoner exchange in favor of Egypt, Israel, say experts
Published in Daily News Egypt on 28 - 10 - 2011

CAIRO: Experts say the release of a US-Israeli citizen by the Egyptian authorities as part of a prisoner exchange deal with Israel is a message to the United States that relations between Egypt and Israel will not falter post-Mubarak.
Local as well as international media gathered at the border with Israel on Thursday to monitor the handover that took place at 12:30 pm.
On Thursday afternoon, Israel officials announced that Ilan Grapel is en route to Tel Aviv from Cairo. As 25 Egyptian prisoners, including three under-18 years old, made their way to Sinai.
The ruling military swapped Grapel, who was arrested in Egypt in June on suspicion of espionage, with 25 out of 81 Egyptians held in Israeli prisons.
“This is a continuation to the exchange that took place between Hamas and Israel, but it is also a message to the US and the western countries that the Egyptian foreign policy has not changed and that it will remain the same,” Emad Gad, political analyst at the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Daily News Egypt.
Political analysts believe that the deal is in favor of Egypt, as well as the US and Israel.
“Egypt is definitely a winner in this deal because we do want those 25 people, but more importantly because this swap has strategic implications between the higher authorities of both countries,” said strategic expert Sameh Seif El-Yazal, chairman of Al-Gomhouria Center for Political and Security Studies.
Nabil Abdel Fattah, a strategic expert at Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies agreed with Sameh explaining further that not only does this deal benefit Egypt, but also is in favor of Israel and the US.
“Israel wants to send a message to the western media that they are peace lovers and are ready to sit at the negotiations table once more, while the US is trying to absorb the frustration the Arab world has felt towards its foreign policy with regards to Israel,” said Abdel Fattah, explaining that the prisoner swap is a gesture of spreading peace in their neighboring countries.
Relations between both Egypt and Israel have been frail, especially following the deaths of at least five Egyptian soldiers in cross-border shootings last August.
While Israel initially pointed the finger of blame towards Egypt, it later apologized for the incident.
Last September, hundreds of protesters gathered at the Israeli embassy, tearing down a large graffiti-covered security wall outside the 21-storey building where the embassy is located.
Protesters then stormed the embassy and tossed papers from balconies and tore down the Israeli flag.
“Israel wants to prove to whichever next government that will be elected in Egypt, that the Israelis are still keen on maintaining good ties with the Egyptians,” Abdel Fattah said.
Abdel Fattah added that as Israel tries to prove its good intentions towards Egypt, the Egyptian government is also working on its relations with the Bedouins as most of the captives were from Sinai.
“They are trying to build credibility with the people of Sinai,” he said.
On the other hand, Gad explained that not only is Israel keen on maintaining ties with Egypt, but the ruling military also wants to prove to the world that even if there are tensions between Egypt and Israel, they are working on resolving them.
Short end of the deal
The deal was not as welcome in Sinai, where some claim it's in favor of Israel as it does not include the Egyptian war fighters who have been in Israeli prisons.
Many questioned the fairness behind exchanging an Israeli prisoner with 25 Egyptian prisoners out of 81 in Israeli prisons.
“This spy [Grapel] is more dangerous than Gilad Shalit,” lawyer Ehab Mostafa El-Boulok told DNE. “He is of mutual interest to both the US and Israel, there shouldn't have been this urgency in swapping prisoners,” he concluded.
Meanwhile, families in Sinai whose kin remain in Israel's custody have threatened to stage demonstrations and escalate protests, and even kidnap other Israelis to exchange them for detained family members.
“This is an unfair exchange, it is also a delayed deal. They should have released all prisoners after they killed our soldiers on the borders rather than offer their apologies,” said Mohamed Abdel Zaher, whose family member is still in Israeli prison.
“Even if the Egyptian street hates Israel, the prisoner swap is a message from the rulers that they will maintain relations. It is just a continuation of Mubarak's policy … People hate Israel yet the rulers will maintain normal diplomatic relations,” Gad said.
Military deals
The swap comes a week after Egypt mediated the exchange of Gilad Shalit, who was held by Hamas, for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
On its part, western media has hailed Shalit's swap with Palestinians prisoners and boosted Egypt's stature as a regional power against competitors Iran and Syria who strived to overshadow Egypt's efforts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by supporting Hamas.
Later, media reports have explained that the Egyptian prisoners deal, however, comes after promises from the US of offering more political and economic support in return.
The Israel Ynet news website quoted the Palestinian Maan News Agency as saying that the US has agreed to sell Egypt several F-16 fighter jets in order to facilitate the release of Grapel, a deal which Israel has opposed during the past few years.
El-Yazal supports this claim, explaining that the Egyptian prisoner swap is nothing but military cooperation.
“I don't see this swap affecting diplomatic relations either positively or negatively, but rather a continuation to mutual benefits between both countries, there are definitely details hidden in this deal that we are not aware of,” he said.
On the other hand, Gad and Abdel Fattah ruled out any military deals. –Additional reporting by Hatem El Boulouk from Taba


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