CAIRO: As 15 or so captives sit somewhere likely south of the Sudanese-Egyptian border, the health of the tourism industry rests in their captors' hands. Experts across the board agree that it's too early to accurately assess the impact that the kidnapping may have on tourism, but many suggest that a quick resolution to the conflict might allow the industry to escape relatively unscathed. Indeed, the Ministry of Tourism's actions over the past few years indicate that attacks on tourists are not a death knell. With ambitious plans to dramatically grow the industry over the next several years, the ministry is banking on the idea that the slew of attacks on tourists between 2004 and 2006 will bear little on tourism numbers. "It could have repercussions, Tourism Minister Zoheir Garrana told Daily News Egypt, "but I don't think what happening at the borders is going to have a big impact. The minister noted that in today's day and age, rare is the country that has escaped attacks from terrorists. "There isn't a single country that hasn't had a terrorist attack, said the minister hyperbolically. In that vein, people around the world have become accustomed enough to the odd attack and therefore might not see the problems in Egypt as prohibitive to travel. Reham ElDesoki, economist at Beltone Financial, tends to agree. She argued that the impact on the industry might be minimal but depends on the outcome of the kidnapping and original motive for it. "Regarding the impact of the incident on the tourism sector and its revenues, she wrote, "we believe the magnitude will depend on whether the kidnapping is politically motivated or not. We expect there will a slight impact in the short term, should the incident prove to be not politically driven, with the focus being on general tourist safety issues. She also noted that the impact on the industry could be more protracted should it be determined that politics motivated the abduction. One source at the Foreign Ministry said that Egypt's tourism industry may be spared too much harm from the kidnapping because, ironically, the bombing in Pakistan was steeling the spotlight. The tourism industry has continued to grow year by year, despite occasional terror-related setbacks. In fiscal year 2007-2008, the industry brought in an estimated $10.6 billion. Analysts had forecasted that revenue this year might reach upward of $12 billion. "Despite the last incidents, said Garanah referring to previous attacks on foreigners, "we had growth in the tourism industry. Signs indicate that foreign ministries internationally have not lost confidence in Egypt because of the incident. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Monday that it would not issue a warning aimed at deterring Russians from traveling to Egypt, citing that this kidnapping was a first-of-its-kind event in Egypt. The unprecedented nature of the kidnapping may just be what saves the industry further harm. Previous attacks, in Sharm El-Sheikh or in Upper Egypt, had targeted tourists and made a political statement. This kidnapping-as-business routine, that was likely carried out by Sudanese or Chadians, is not part of a pattern of related incidents. Because the incident may be viewed as financially motivated, rather than politically driven, experts suggest it may not do lasting harm to the industry.
