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Analysts pessimistic about swift resolution in Lebanon
Published in Daily News Egypt on 03 - 02 - 2008

CAIRO: Arab League Chief Amr Moussa held an emergency meeting on Sunday Jan.27 in Cairo with Arab foreign ministers to urgently push for progress in resolving Lebanon's current political vacuum.
For the thirteenth time, presidential elections were postponed to Feb.11 as the Arab League urged Lebanon to commit to the given date.
The meeting continued to stress on the adoption of a new electoral law and for all parties to work to stop the escalating tension in Lebanon.
Another outcome of the meeting was the rejection of Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem's proposal to present Hezbollah and the opposition with 10 seats in the 30-seat Cabinet, giving them equal power with the majority and the president.
The dismissal was backed by reasoning that it would cause problems for the majority when trying to pass laws. The foreign ministers pressed on the idea of forming a national unity government where no one party has the power to veto.
The meeting took place on the same day as riots broke out in a Shia-populated area in suburban Beirut in opposition to the Lebanese government's decision to ration electricity. Seven people were killed in the protests, further intensifying an already critical situation.
Political analyst Mahmoud Shoukry - also the former ambassador to Syria - believes the genuine efforts of Moussa and the rest of the Arab League are in danger of being overshadowed by the daily escalation in violence. Therefore, the penned February election will likely be affected as well.
The situation is much more complicated now due to resentment from the Shias, he said, and the latest developments may lead to the opposition gaining more power because of people's anger towards the government.
It s tricky for Moussa. On the one hand, he has to be there to pursue the matter and endorse the elections. On the other hand, it is very difficult for him to push for progress - the circumstances are too turbulent, he added.
Arab League spokesperson and press officer Abdel Alim El-Abyad voiced an equally pessimistic opinion, pointing out the parties acute differences.
The majority accepted the [Arab League's] initiative, he said, but the opposition hasn t, and is giving it a different interpretation.
The Arab League has been playing a very active role. The meeting on Sunday re-confirmed the Arab League s plan; it s the acute differences between the parties that need to be solved, he added.
Abyad said the parties have to meet and decided on the Arab League initiative before any progress can be made, stressing that the lack of trust between them is a destructive force.
Moussa was holding bilateral talks with several Arab diplomats ahead of the extraordinary meeting, including with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit who told reporters on Saturday the meeting would help shed light on a proposed Arab initiative to end the stalemate in Lebanon.
Moussa has held several rounds of talks with feuding political leaders in Lebanon to spur them to elect a new president and end the crisis which has left the country without a president since November 23.
On January 5 he proposed a three-point Arab initiative calling for army chief General Michel Suleiman to be elected president, the formation of a national unity government in which no one party has veto power, and the adoption of a new electoral law.


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