Africa – A future for itself

In a small village in western Zambia, the Lozi king—the Litunga—will call on his people to leave the lowlands and join him in a spectacular ceremony, celebrating the seasonal flooding that will fertilize their farmlands. But in the past two years there have been no celebrations. Rains arrived earlier than usual, leading to devastating floods. The Lozi blame climate change. “The seasons have changed. This is a very big disaster”, says Bennet Imutongo Sondo, the seventy-four-year-old induna or chief advisor of Liyoyelo village in Zambia’s Mongu district.
Scientists knit their brows when they ponder the impact of global climate change on Africa. The outcomes are depressing: Africa is likely to be hit hardest by the droughts, floods and other catastrophic effects of climate change, despite contributing the least greenhouse gases—less than 4 per cent of the world’s total emissions. According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Africa is in for a tough time. Continued increase in the amount of greenhouse gases may put almost 1.8 billion more in Africa at risk of water stress by 2050. Arid and semi-arid lands are likely to increase by up to 8 per cent, threatening food security. The IPCC also cautioned that sea-level rise, especially along the East African coast, may increase chances of flooding. Africa’s adaptation bill can shoot up by 10 per cent of the combined gross domestic product of all its nations.
The most vulnerable continent
Apart from the authoritative IPCC, many studies warn about the dire consequences for Africa. At a conference in Cape Town in September 2009 in Cape Town, Oli Brown of the International Institute for Sustainable Development, while discussing security and climate change, said, “Africa is the first continent to fully feel the effect of climate change on political and economic stability because of its history of ethnic, resource and political conflict, and its reliance on climate sensitive sectors like rain-fed agriculture.”
The international aid agency Oxfam estimates that rising temperatures may mean that sub-Saharan Africa could lose $2 billion a year as the viability of just one crop—maize—declines. A study by the Geneva-based Global Humanitarian Forum shows that 15 of the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change are in Africa.
The “World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change,” warns that just a 2˚C warming above pre-industrial levels can permanently reduce Africa’s annual per capita consumption by 4 to 5 per cent. Water will be a major concern for African countries and several commentators have issued warnings that water wars might break out as people compete for resources. Some have already suggested that the conflict in Darfur might partly be blamed on the lack of water in the region.
In July 2009, the economist, Jeffrey Sachs, has written on the Scientific American website that “recent years have shown that shifts in rainfall can bring down Governments and even set off wars. The African Sahel, just south of the Sahara, provides a dramatic and poignant demonstration. The deadly carnage in Darfur, Sudan, for example, which is almost always discussed in political and military terms, has roots in an ecological crisis directly arising from climate shocks.”
In August 2009, Ban Ki-moon, United Nations Secretary-General, in an op-ed titled Climate Culprit in Darfur, said, “Amid the diverse social and political causes, the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change.”
Climate change has been directly linked to the drying up of Lake Chad by 80 per cent since the 1980s. This may affect 
Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger that share the lake, and several non-governmental organizations have issued warnings that there are fears of conflict over the remaining water resources.
Currently 20 countries in Africa are suffering from water scarcity, and the World Development Report 2010 notes that another 12 are likely to be added in the next 25 years.
Africa’s 63 transboundary river basins together account for over 90 per cent of its surface water, and no existing treaties instruct African countries how the water can be shared. Water in Africa’s economic powerhouse, South Africa, may also come under huge strain by 2025.
Researchers at the Southern African Development Community (SADC), said that Southern Africa lacked more than 4 million metric tonnes of maize in 2007/08 to feed its people. Already, rain patterns have changed in Africa, and droughts are more common, which can potentially ruin about three quarters of the continent’s population engaged in farming.
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BM