ALEXANDRIA: Egypt could be heading for disaster. Although numerous scenarios are being espoused, two things are certain in all of them: Alexandria, Egypt’s second largest city will disappear and the North African is in for some troublesome years ahead “Many of the towns and urban areas in the north of the Delta will suffer from the rise in the level of the Mediterranean with effect from 2020 and about 15 percent of Delta land is under threat from the rising sea level and the seepage into the ground water,†Environment Minister George Maged told a parliamentary committee earlier this year. He said joint studies by his ministry and the United Nations have assessed the situation to be urgent, adding that Egypt is planning to start an international campaign for solutions. Is he being too hasty with predictions that in less than 15 years portions of the Delta region in northern Egypt will be submerged? Analysts tend to think just that. “Of course this is exaggerated. I think it’s a gross misunderstanding,†Mostapha Saleh, head of Environment Quality International in Egypt, said. He says the minister was over stating the realities in order to create international awareness of the situation facing the country, which he says could become “critical.†Saleh believes the situation facing Egypt is in need of attention, but according to the data he has seen “if sea levels rise by one meter that would bring water inland 60 to 70 kilometers (35 miles), so it is not necessarily a large portion of the Delta.†According to Mohamed Al Raey of Alexandria University, the threat to the Delta region – an alluvial plain that sits only a few meters (about 8 feet) above sea level – needs to be watched. He says in an article in Al Ahram Weekly that climate change could lead “to an increase in the frequency and severity of sandstorms, and longer periods of drought followed by more intense flooding. This is expected to lead to public health problems, including the spread of epidemics, especially in poorer regions.†A 2004 report issued by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) corroborates Al Raey’s assertions. In the study, they argue that only one degree centigrade could lead to large evaporation losses and significantly reduce Nile flows if the assumption that a four percent increase in evaporation per degree is taken into account. Al Raey says the Mediterranean is already on the path toward flooding Northern Egypt, raising an average of .08 inches annually for the past decade. “It has already flooded parts of Egypt’s shoreline,†he says. Generally, scientists predict the Mediterranean will rise by as little as 30 centimeters (one foot) to one meter (3.3 feet) by the end of the century. Even a one-meter rise in the water will submerge Alexandria. Cairo is beginning to discuss the impacts of global warming and have sought a “national strategy study†in order to combat the coming floods. In Alexandria, the local government is spending $300 million building concrete walls to protect the city’s beaches, and in some areas sand is being dumped to help replenish deteriorating beaches. An official at Egypt’s Water Resources and Irrigation says the government is currently examining a “vulnerability index and attempting to determine the country’s areas under the largest threat.†Hussein Al Atfy, the deputy director to the minister, says Egypt is first attempting to protect its shores as a first barrier. But that won’t be enough. “We are currently doing this on the beaches in the north, but after this the government will need to ask the world for help. It costs too much for Egypt to take on all this on our own so the international community needs to assist us,†he adds. Egypt, like the entire Middle East region, needs to be prepared for what is to come, Munqeth Mehyar, the director of Friends of the Earth Middle East (FoEME) said ahead of his organizations presentation of a security risk assessment of climate change in the Middle East for the annual UN conference on climate change in Bali, Indonesia. “Being left unprepared will affect not only economic, physical and environmental security, but national, regional and global security, if actions are not taken now to mitigate and adapt to, the projected impacts of climate change,†Mehyar said earlier this month. His organization believes Alexandria is not the only major population center that will be affected by rising sea levels. The coastal groundwater in Gaza, FoEME reports, will make the small Mediterranean strip of land nearly uninhabitable for the 1.5 million Palestinians living there. “It will be essential for the most developed countries to provide developing countries with technical and financial assistance in adapting to climate change,†he added. BM
