The big picture so far in the US elections is simple and clear: Hillary Clinton is in trouble. The states to focus on are Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10). If Clinton loses either of the larger states, she is finished. She has a path to an 269-269 electoral tie if she loses Wisconsin – but she would have to win New Hampshire, which has not been called yet. An electoral tie, after passing through a thicket of constitutional logistics, likely represents a win for Trump, owing to a strong Republican majority in the House of Representatives and retained Republican control of the senate, which looks very likely. The three key states at this point all have gone reliably Democratic in presidential elections going back six elections. There are 31 such states – and none of them has yet broken the pattern tonight. But those states may be friendlier to Trump owing to his strength with the white, working-class voters that proliferate in the upper Midwest. In the last hour, both Florida and Ohio were called for Trump, huge wins for him, and North Carolina appears to be running his way. Tuesday's vote is the fifth presidential contest in a row in which the state voted for the Republican candidate. That includes the 2000 election, when native son Al Gore lost the state to Republican George W. Bush. It takes 270 votes to win the presidency. Source: The Guardian
