Suez Canal signs $2bn first-phase deal to build petrochemical complex in Ain Sokhna    ICJ holds Israel responsible for worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza    Omar Hisham announces launch of Egyptian junior and ladies' golf with 100 players from 15 nations    Egypt, Sudan discuss boosting health cooperation, supporting Sudan's medical system    Cairo Metro's Line 4 project with Japan gets cabinet green light    Defying US tariffs, China's industrial heartland shows resilience    Pakistan, Afghanistan ceasefire holds as focus shifts to Istanbul talks    Beit Logistics invests EGP 500m to develop Safaga Integrated Logistics Center    Egypt's Social Housing Fund, United Bank sign deal to expand mortgage finance cooperation    Survivors of Nothingness – Part Three: Politics ... Chaos as a Tool of Governance    EU's Kallas says ready to deepen partnership with Egypt ahead of first summit    Egypt's Sisi hails Japan's first female PM, vows to strengthen Cairo-Tokyo ties    Egypt's exports to EU surge 7.4% to $8.7b in 8 months — CAPMAS    Egypt makes news oil, gas discoveries in Nile Delta    Egypt, France agree to boost humanitarian aid, rebuild Gaza's health sector    Egyptian junior and ladies' golf open to be held in New Giza, offers EGP 1m in prizes    The Survivors of Nothingness — Part Two    Egypt's PM reviews efforts to remove Nile River encroachments    Health Minister reviews readiness of Minya for rollout of universal health insurance    Egypt screens 13.3m under presidential cancer detection initiative since mid-2023    Egypt launches official website for Grand Egyptian Museum ahead of November opening    The Survivors of Nothingness — Episode (I)    Al-Sisi: Cairo to host Gaza reconstruction conference in November    Egypt successfully hosts Egyptian Amateur Open golf championship with 19-nation turnout    Egypt, WHO sign 2024-2028 country cooperation strategy    Egypt: Guardian of Heritage, Waiting for the World's Conscience    Egypt will never relinquish historical Nile water rights, PM says    Al Ismaelia launches award-winning 'TamaraHaus' in Downtown Cairo revival    Al-Sisi, Burhan discuss efforts to end Sudan war, address Nile Dam dispute in Cairo talks    Egypt's Sisi warns against unilateral Nile actions, calls for global water cooperation    Egypt unearths New Kingdom military fortress on Horus's Way in Sinai    Syria releases preliminary results of first post-Assad parliament vote    Karnak's hidden origins: Study reveals Egypt's great temple rose from ancient Nile island    Egypt resolves dispute between top African sports bodies ahead of 2027 African Games    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Egypt's Ceasefire Proposal – Will it Gain Traction?
Published in Amwal Al Ghad on 21 - 07 - 2014

The Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian territory under Israeli occupation, has not abated. Rather, it has intensified. Initial signals from the Israeli prime minister that this would be a surgical, limited incursion were doubted from the moment the invasion began – and those reservations have proven to be well placed. At the best of times, any sort of invasion runs the risk of spilling dramatically out of control fairly quickly – such is the nature of war. And this is not the best of times. It is the Palestinian people of Gaza, this small strip of land under siege, that are paying the largest price for that disastrous decision. But the effects of it go beyond Gaza – including to its neighbor to the west, Egypt.
Egypt, traditionally, is the Arab power-broker in the Arab-Israeli conflict. On this occasion, it has not been successful in ceasing the bombardment of Gaza or the missile strikes from Hamas. Hamas and other Palestinian forces continue to fire rockets at Israeli targets, with little success partially owing to Israel's defenses but mainly due to the poor capacity of the rockets. Israel's bombardments and attacks from the sea, ground and air, continue undiminished, with human rights organizations, the United Nations, and various media outlets confirming that around 400 Palestinians are dead, most of whom are civilians.
Nowhere to run
The Palestinians of Gaza are being advised to flee but the operative question, of course, is to where? The Gaza Strip is one of the most congested places on the face of the planet and it is unclear where within it there is an established safe zone. Gaza is also under lockdown. The Israeli checkpoints are obviously closed to Palestinians and the other border with Egypt is closed, despite a number of Egyptian political parties and movements expressing solidarity with the people of Gaza, demanding that the Rafah border crossing be opened.
What is happening in Gaza today is, if we put it extremely cynically, a rather magnificent recruitment tool for those types of extremists
Gaza is, essentially, being held hostage by the conflicts between different parties in Palestine/Israel and the tensions within the region. Egypt has a ceasefire proposal that is essentially the same one that was negotiated successfully under the Mohammad Morsi government in 2012 - but that proposal has failed this time. There are reasons for that, not least with regards to the terms which return the Palestinians of Gaza to the status quo of pre-July 2014, which was hardly an enviable position given the difficulties that Gaza faced. Even before this latest round of hostilities, as the United Nations pointed out, Gaza was suffering under a crippling blockade that constituted "illegal collective punishment." But foremost among the reasons for its lack of success is the inability, thus far, to engage directly and openly with one of the two key parties on the ground: Hamas.
There's not much good to say about Hamas. Its strategies, tactics and actions are unbefitting of the Palestinian cause. That, however, is somewhat irrelevant when it comes to involving the movement in discussions that pertain to ending this current escalation of violence. Egypt knew this under Mubarak – even while it opposed Hamas on many levels. On this occasion, Hamas is not part of that discussion. It's an object of discussion – not a full-fledged participant. That's not simply problematic politically, but it is strategically nonsensical even if a unity government via a reconciliation deal, which actually strengthened non-Islamist forces in the Palestinian camp, had not actually been on the table (a reconciliation deal that Israel opposed). Regardless of all of that – there can be no ceasefire agreement implemented without Hamas, whether one likes it or not.
Egypt's cease-fire proposal is gaining ground internationally; the momentum in that regard is certainly building. But where it matters the most, on the ground, there is little evidence of much change. The terms remain the same terms Hamas rejected – and it seems there is no direct discussion ensuing between Cairo and Hamas on how to get around it. Instead, there appear to be mediators between mediators – parties that are not simply sending messages between Israel and Hamas, but also between Hamas and Cairo. In the meantime, the bombardments in Gaza continue and the death toll rises approaching half a thousand Palestinians, most of whom are civilians.
Eventually, there is going to be a cessation of those bombardments. Everyone knows that. There cannot be an indefinite escalation of this conflict, and at some point, the firing will stop. But at that point, what is going to be the situation for Gaza – and what role will Egypt and others play in that regard?
Looking forward
Huge parts of Gaza will be in ruins. That will require massive reconstruction. Even if the funds are made available, as one might hope, from the international community, how will the materials arrive if Gaza remains under siege? It is unlikely Israel will be the entry point in that regard – will Egypt open not only Rafah, but the other checkpoints to Gaza in order to facilitate the flow of goods? Is that not in Egypt's interest? Or is it in Egypt's interest that there be a Palestinian population that resents Egypt for failing to provide a legal, secure alternative to the illegal tunnels, at a time when Palestinians will need all the humanitarian support they can get?
There will be not only death to account for – but trauma as well. As a United Nations official put it – if you are a Palestinian in Gaza, and at least six years old, you've just lived through your third war. Speaking on a personal note, I'm concerned tremendously about the trauma that friends of mine who are journalists reporting from Gaza are going to have to reckon with when the dust settles. They're doing a tremendously important job, under fire, and they all deserve all of our support. But they, after all, get to leave – and it is not their families and homes that have been so deeply affected around them. What, then, of the Palestinian people of Gaza? What happens to a society that is so immensely brutalized through such catastrophes?
Knock-on effects and radical ideologies
That has an affect that goes far beyond Gaza's borders. Concerns abound about the extremism of groups like Hamas – and groups far worse than Hamas, both within Gaza and elsewhere in the Arab region, including the likes of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and others. It would be a mistake to ignore the very real threat of radical ideology – ideology is real, and a critical component of this scourge of extremism. But it thrives on political grievances – and what is happening in Gaza today is, if we put it extremely cynically, a rather magnificent recruitment tool for those types of extremists.
If the idea of this barrage is to cripple Hamas, as Israeli officials have promoted it, then it's hard to see how in the medium to long term, that's remotely likely. On the contrary – it's far more probable that Hamas will swell its ranks, or increase appeal for even more radical groups in Gaza and elsewhere, including Egypt and further afield. That's an effect that has to be measured not in months, but years.
Different analysts and commentators will argue about who is to blame in this crisis. They will try to apportion responsibility, allocate liability and assign culpability. There are certainly discussions to be had in that regard, and there should be many hard questions asked about this latest episode. But at least on one point, there ought to be consensus. That is that the situation that the Palestinian people of the Gaza Strip find themselves in is outrageous. It must be rectified – for their sakes, and for the region at large. We underestimate the need for that at our own peril.
About the Writer:
Heyllyer is a British expert on the politics of the modern Middle East, religion and politics, majority-minority relations, security issues and the Muslim world - West relations. A nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy section, and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, he is also a research associate at Harvard University's Kennedy School.
Dr Hellyer was previously Senior Practice Consultant at the Gallup Organisation, and Senior Research Fellow at the University of Warwick. Dr. Hellyer was appointed to the British government's Taskforce on Tackling Radicalisation and Extremism. Dr. Hellyer was appointed as deputy convener of the United Kingdom taskforce on tackling radicalization and extremism after the 7/7 bombings in London in 2005. He also served as the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office's (FCO) first economic and social research council fellow, within its Islam team and counter-terrorism team.
Source:Al Arabiya


Clic here to read the story from its source.