A Gaza-Israel truce is on the horizon, though Israel is still sabre rattling and seeking more Palestinian concessions, writes Saleh Al-Naami Ali sleeps for 28 hours when he returns home every weekend from a Palestinian resistance training camp. This young man, 19, who lives in the central Gaza Strip's Al-Nuseirat Refugee Camp, belongs to a military arm of the resistance. Like many Palestinian youth in Gaza, he receives military training in preparation to confront the major campaign that Israel may wage against the Gaza Strip soon. Abu Obeida, spokesperson of Hamas's military wing, the Ezzeddin Al-Qassam Brigades, says that resistance factions are acting on the assumption that a major Israeli military campaign against Gaza is about to begin. They are therefore taking all appropriate steps to confront it. Abu Obeida told Al-Ahram Weekly that increased recruitment to the ranks of the Palestinian resistance followed statements made by numerous Israeli leaders about Tel Aviv's intentions to wage a military campaign against the Strip. Yet he added, "our military measures and precautions do not mean that a military campaign against the Strip is a done deal. We are taking the worst possibilities into consideration and acting on their basis." Statements recently issued by many Israeli officials have indicated that Israel is preparing to conduct major military operations in Gaza. This was particularly the case prior to, during, and following Egyptian General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman's visit in which he put forward the Egyptian truce proposal. During the last Israeli government meeting Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned that the "hour of reckoning" had arrived and that Israel would halt the firing of missiles on settlements near the Gaza Strip at "any price". Acting Israeli President Haim Ramon went even further when he stressed the necessity of commencing a string of operations aimed at toppling Hamas. Meanwhile, and following reservations, the Israeli army's leadership changed its position on waging a wide-scale military campaign on Gaza. Maariv, Israel's second largest newspaper, reported a military source as saying that Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi opposes waging a wide-scale military campaign in the Strip for fear that it wouldn't halt the firing of missiles on Israel. Hamas leader Ayman Taha says that Israeli threats did not make much of an impression on him or his colleagues, who considered them an attempt at 11th hour pressure to force Hamas to accept Israel's new conditions relative to the Egyptian truce proposal. These conditions are tying the truce to the release of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and obtaining guarantees that arms smuggling into the Gaza Strip will halt. Taha told the Weekly Israel in fact agreed to not tie the truce to the Shalit case. Taha notes that Israel has moved past threats and attacked Hamas in the past, but that this did not put an end to its resistance activities "but rather made [Hamas] more intent on securing the national interests of the Palestinian people." Despite Israeli threats and Palestinian responses, numerous indicators suggest that Tel Aviv is in fact leaning towards accepting the truce. Hariel holds that despite the uproar over the Israeli officials' statements, Tel Aviv does not consider the firing of missiles from the Gaza Strip "the most serious threat to its security at the present time". What took place recently in Lebanon, with Hizbullah taking control in much of Beirut, switched on red lights in decision-making circles and left "the heads of the Israeli intelligence agencies unable to sleep". In an analysis published last Tuesday, Hariel underlines that the "victory" Hizbullah won over its foes in the Lebanese arena indicates that Hizbullah leaders enjoy a great deal of self-confidence, meaning that Hizbullah won't hesitate to attack Israel if Iran were attacked, or even if Israel wages a military campaign against the Gaza Strip. Hariel believes that Israel will agree to a truce for several months, knowing that it will have a decisive military confrontation with Hamas in the future. Israeli journalist Avi Sekarov holds that Israel's hesitancy to wage a military campaign against the Strip, and its preference for a truce, stems from its failure to obtain international cover for the campaign. Sekarov says that despite US President George W Bush's authorisation during his recent visit for Israel to do whatever it sees appropriate for "self-defence", other regional and international powers remain unconvinced of Israel's justifications for waging a campaign against the Strip. Meanwhile, Israeli voices have risen to demand that a campaign not be waged, and that dialogue with Hamas be commenced instead. The most important development in this regard has been the letter sent by dozens of retired Israeli generals, intellectuals and writers to Olmert and Minister of Defence Ehud Barak. In this letter, they demanded that urgent discussions be held with Hamas for reaching a ceasefire agreement and that any military campaigns planned for the Strip not be implemented. This letter gained significance by way of the high- ranking individuals who signed it, including General Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, former chief of staff, former head of Mossad Efraim Halevy, General Shlomo Zakai, who was an occupation army commander in the Gaza Strip prior to "disengagement", and Yossi Beilin, former head of the Meretz movement and former Israeli minister of justice. Signatories stressed that any major operation conducted in Gaza would end the ceasefire and bring in international parties, and that thus it would be better to reach an immediate agreement without paying the price of those killed and wounded on both sides. In contrast, Iyad Al-Barghouti expects that Israel will escalate its military operations against the Strip. Al-Barghouti, professor of political science at Birzeit University, told the Weekly that, "according to Israeli strategic logic, military escalation serves opportunities to reach a truce on Israeli conditions. Israeli leaders believe that if Hamas and the other factions are struck, they will yield and accept Israeli stipulations." Al-Barghouti added that Israel won't wage a military campaign with the goal of reoccupying Gaza and toppling Hamas's rule, for it is in Israel's interest for there to be two competing Palestinian governments in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Although the Palestinian wish for a truce and lifting of the siege is great, Al-Barghouti warns that lifting the siege in particular will make solving domestic conflict more difficult since some parties have viewed solving the Palestinian rift as a step towards having the siege lifted. Ahmed Youssef, policy adviser to dismissed premier Ismail Haniyeh, disagrees with Al-Barghouti and underlines that lifting the siege would strengthen opportunities for settling domestic Palestinian conflict. In statements to the Weekly, Youssef said that should Israel reject the Egyptian truce proposal, Hamas and the rest of the Palestinian resistant factions would demand that the Egyptian government reopen the Rafah crossing immediately, and that Cairo and all Arab capitals work to lift the siege of the Palestinian people. "The Palestinian factions received a clear promise from Egypt to reopen the Rafah crossing should Israel reject the Egyptian truce initiative, since opening the crossing is a sovereign right of Egypt," he said. It is clear that Israel is interested in a truce with Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip, mainly due to regional developments. Yet it is trying to exploit the Palestinians' desire for a truce and the lifting of the siege to gain concessions regarding the Shalit case and the military strength of Hamas. Israel's success or failure depends on how rigid is the position that Palestinian factions will take in Cairo in the future.
