Hassan Nasrallah raises hopes that the long-awaited prisoner swap between Hizbullah and Israel is imminent, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut "Very soon Samir and Samir's brothers will be among you," Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah told crowds gathered in the southern suburbs of Beirut this week, sparking speculation that Samir Qantar, and other prisoners in Israeli jails, would soon walk free. Israeli military reservists Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser would be handed over in return, though Hizbullah has never revealed whether they are dead or alive. Israel has said they were critically wounded in the cross-border raid on July 2006 which sparked Israel's ferocious bombardment of southern Lebanon. Israeli sources and media fanned the rumours, saying a prisoner swap might occur as early as Sunday, though it was unclear at the time of writing if this will involve a full exchange. German-brokered negotiations began in late 2006. Timur Goksel, a security analyst and former spokesman of the UNIFIL border peacekeeping force, said Hizbullah appeared to have dropped its demand for Palestinian and other Arab prisoners to be included in the deal. "It appears that once they eased up on that demand things started to move," he said. Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, author of a book on Hizbullah, says the movement is unlikely to have altered its position and a more likely reason for the sudden progress is to be found in Israel's domestic politics, where Prime Minister Ehud Olmert faces a corruption scandal. Hizbullah has negotiated the release of many in exchange for a few before. In 2004, Israel released more than 400 Lebanese and other Arab prisoners in exchange for an Israeli businessman and the remains of three soldiers, boosting Nasrallah's reputation for playing hard-ball. Qantar, jailed following a 1979 raid that killed two Israeli men and a four-year-old girl, is the longest-serving of the prisoners. According to Goksel they also include an Arab Israeli accused by Israel of spying for Hizbullah, four fighters captured in 2006 and several bodies. The swap comes at a critical juncture for Lebanon, following clashes that killed at least 65 people and during which Hizbullah briefly seized West Beirut. A national dialogue is expected soon, chaired by new President Michel Suleiman, with the group's weapons at the top of the agenda. The prisoners are a priority for Hizbullah, which may use such a victory to support its argument that "resistance weapons" achieve national goals and are a source of strength. Qantar, a Druze, was jailed before the group was established in the early 1980s. Whatever the arguments, few analysts believe disarmament is on the table. Saad- Ghorayeb points out that the next cabinet, the national unity government demanded by Hizbullah and its allies, will have to issue a policy declaration that includes support for the resistance. Suleiman is unlikely to campaign for the disarmament demanded by Washington and the United Nations. Lebanon's army fought, within its limits, alongside Hizbullah against Israel while under his command and he has good relations with Syria. As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, Sueliman assigned Fouad Al-Siniora to head the next government. Al-Siniora's attempt to dismantle Hizbullah's telecommunications network and remove the airport security chief, seen as close to the group, sparked Hizbullah's fierce retaliation this month. The use of force by Hizbullah and Shia group Amal during the fighting stirred widespread fears in Lebanon of a new civil war and provoked increased internal calls for disarmament. In a fiery speech by video-link on Monday to mark the anniversary of Israel's withdrawal from the south in 2000, Nasrallah said Lebanon should establish "a liberation strategy in addition to a defence strategy". "In Lebanon we talk about defence; what we need now is a liberation strategy for the occupied Shebaa Farms, Kfar Shuba Hills and the detainees in Israeli jails," he said. Shebaa Farms is an Israeli-occupied, strategic pocket of land where the borders of Israel, Lebanon and Syria meet. Pro-government media saw Nasrallah's speech as a challenge to Suleiman, who spoke of the need for a national defence strategy in his inaugural address on Sunday. "He was clearly carving out a strategy for a new era," Saad-Ghorayeb said. "In doing so, he contradicted Suleiman and government policy since 2005, which has focussed on the diplomatic track to liberate Shebaa. He was laying the grounds for dialogue and raising the roof." Goksel said Nasrallah was pre-positioning himself, expecting pressure. "He's saying, until there's peace in the region we'll keep our guns," he said. Talks are unlikely to achieve a breakthrough on the arms. Goksel expects "the issue to be deferred to a follow-up committee". Many analysts expect the future national defence strategy to establish liaisons between the army and the guerrillas, and perhaps even incorporate them as an elite unit. But that lies in the future. "The national defence strategy has always focussed on the phase after Shebaa Farms is liberated, which is no simple matter," says Saad- Ghorayeb. Nasrallah also gave his clearest backing yet to the Iraqi resistance, both Sunni and Shia, apparently in response to internal and external allegations that he had been quiet on the issue because Shias dominate the US-backed Iraqi government, and pledged a response to the killing of its military commander, Imad Mughniyah. Nasrallah had made clear following Mughniyah's assassination in Damascus in February that retaliation was not an "if" but a "when". But there was good news in Nasrallah's speech for his critics. "The Lebanese dream is about a quiet summer while the American one speaks of a hot summer," Nasrallah said. "Let us make our dream come true rather than theirs." Saad-Ghorayeb said this sounded like a promise of calm. "I think that was his way of saying Hizbullah was not going to disrupt the summer tourism season, a tacit pledge not to provoke Israel this summer," she said. (see p.7)
