Prudence is essential to the high politics of state, but so too, once in a while, is proactive action against perils ahead, writes Amin Howeidi* On Police Day President Hosni Mubarak made a speech in which he pledged to protect Egypt's safety and keep the nation's head high. I take this as a sign of the president's interest in national security both within and beyond our borders. For decades, Egypt has worked tirelessly for the pan-Arab cause, making immense and unforgettable sacrifices, and it still does. Our nation is beset by an array of external and internal threats. I will not go into the internal threats because you know them as well as I do. We all have to deal with the economic doldrums, each according to their means and needs. The rich, the not so rich, and the really poor all experience the pressure, albeit in variant forms. The president said that our strong army is prepared to act if our land, sovereignty and interests are compromised in any way. I find this reassuring, for friend and foe alike must be put on notice on such matters. It is important that we show others that we are strong and gutsy enough to act when needed. No nation can live without using or threatening to use force. Perhaps you don't have to use the army, or what people call hard power, each time. But you will need to use soft power or pressure, be it political or economic, every now and then. The sum total of a country's hard and soft power is what determines its place in the sun. Some countries rely solely on hard power, as the US did under George W Bush, and as Israel has done for years. But this is counter- productive in the long run. As President Nixon explained in his book Victory Without War, countries should learn how to coexist despite their differences. They should learn how to live with part-fulfilled agendas and part-achieved objectives. This is what politics is all about. Unfortunately, we have a rogue of a neighbour that doesn't believe in any of the above. Israel acknowledges nothing but the language of blood and tears, and that's why it remains to this day a menace to our national security. I have said elsewhere, and allow me to quote myself, "we need the eyes of hawks, the cunning of foxes, and the strengths of lions to break the legs and cut the heads of those who entertain violating our borders." I said that in an article I published in Al-Ahali by way of comment on the events on our eastern border. Israel wants the situation to remain tense in Gaza and the occupied territories. Israel wants to hold on to Palestine in its entirety, and to get rid of the Palestinians. And unfortunately some Palestinians, for all their bombastic rhetoric, are helping it along. I doubt the value of any peace agreements signed with Israel, for it has not at any point in its history showed a genuine inclination for peace. Nothing will stop Israel except a good deterrent. Piracy south of the Red Sea is another threat that needs to be addressed. The number of ships passing through the Suez Canal and their cargo has dropped as a result of this new threat. But there might be another reason for the decrease of trade going through Suez: countries such as the US and Canada may be importing less from Asia as a result of the current economic crisis. The drop in oil prices and the slackening of Egyptian exports may have exacerbated this situation. I wish to remind you also of other perils, which I shall call dormant threats. One of these threats has to do with the Nile waters. Right now we have a quota system that has held, thanks to the wisdom of the governments now in power. But what will happen if the demand on water keeps going up and the governments involved change their minds? As populations grow, the land needing irrigation increases and political tensions may arise as a result. Another dormant threat is brewing right on our eastern borders. As the population in both Palestine and Israel grows, putting land at a premium, some people may start thinking that nearby land is the solution. Another threat still is that Israel may ponder digging a canal between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. It's an old idea and rather expensive, but you never know. Furthermore, the distant parts of our country, especially Nubia and Sinai, need to be cared after in a better way. We need to make development plans for these areas and keep their populations busy and involved. The list runs long: financial and economic crises, population growth, the ballooning of debt, corruption -- but I will stop here. Some people think we should leave some of these problems to future, but that's rather irresponsible. We have always paid our dues. Egypt has picked its way safely through the rubble of regional turbulence for years. With a bit of luck and a considerable deal of prudence, we have managed to make it somehow. Being naturally cautious has helped us so far. But sometimes we're too cautious to be assertive. So allow me to say this: there is nothing wrong with taking a calculated risk on occasion. * The writer is former defence minister and chief of General Intelligence.
