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Collision course
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 02 - 04 - 2009

The coalition patched together by satisfies no one, writes Emad Gad
Likud leader Binyamin finally formed a government on Tuesday. The coalition will control 69 parliamentary seats -- 27 occupied by Likud, 15 by Yisrael Beiteinu, 13 by Labour, 11 by Shas and three by Jewish Home.
In an address to the Knesset shortly before he was sworn into office, promised to seek a "permanent arrangement with the Palestinians and full peace with the entire Arab and Muslim world".
said he had committed his government to a triple process with the Palestinians: economic, military and political. But he did not explicitly endorse a Palestinian state. He said he only accepts a national authority whose role agrees with his vision of a self-ruling entity that governs people, not their lands. However, 's vision is sure to collide with the Palestinian ambition and the Arab peace initiative as well as with peace overtures by the US administration.
was forced to ask for a two-week extension on top of the four weeks usually allocated to an incoming prime minister to form a government.
From the beginning was desperate to have either Labour or Kadima on board. He wanted to avoid the kind of narrow right-wing coalition that he formed in 1996 and which quickly collapsed.
In the end he did what he could. The pragmatist hesitated to bring in far right and racist parties, knowing how perilous this would be for a region already torn by fanaticism, and how annoying the new US administration would find such a move. Certainly events of 1992, when George Bush Sr stood firm against Israel's far right, must have been close to his mind. Even closer would have been the election of 1999, when the coalition he had patched together lost to Ehud Barak, the latter being Bill Clinton's favourite.
started by talking to Kadima and Labour. His talks with Kadima ended when Tzipi Livni insisted that he should endorse the two-state solution, commit to the principle of exchanging land-for- peace, and give her the premiership for two years out of the government's four-year life in a rotation arrangement similar to the one Likud and Labour had in 1984. refused.
then lured Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu. Lieberman exacted a high price for his support, demanding the Foreign Ministry for himself as well as the portfolios of internal security and infrastructure for other members of his party. Lieberman's request that the former government's justice minister, Daniel Friedmann, remain in office was also granted. In addition agreed that extra clauses be added to the citizenry laws, including one discontinuing the national insurance payments of anyone convicted of compromising national security.
On 22 March signed an agreement giving Shas the ministries of interior, housing, religion, a ministerial post in the prime minister's office, and oversight of education and heritage.
This was too much for some Likud leaders, who accused of selling out. Silvan Shalom, former foreign minister, was angry to see the post he had been hoping for go to Lieberman. Several Likud leaders threatened to stay outside the government.
's big coup was getting Barak on board. After talks between the two men on how to protect the country from the repercussions of the global economic crisis promised Barak a "substantial" overture to the Palestinians, pledging to "respect" previous agreements.
The deal split Labour, with many accusing Barak of tarnishing the party's moderate image. The matter was finally decided by Labour's congress, which voted 680 to 507 to join the government. Barak was given the Defence Ministry. then managed to convince the Jewish Home Party to join, promising them the Science Ministry.
He has ended up with a government that brings together the right and ultra right -- both secular, as in Yisrael Beiteinu, and religious, represented by Shas and the Jewish Home -- as well as Labour, a party that may cling to leftist credentials but which has drifted steadily to the centre right.
It is a government that cannot possibly seek political settlement. Lieberman, after all, quit the Olmert government when it decided to attend regional talks in Annapolis. must also remember the flak he caught when, on 23 October 1998 , he signed the Wye River agreement, giving the Palestinian Authority control over 13.1 per cent of the West Bank. Then the ultra right lashed out at , accusing him of treason. Four of his coalition members walked out, leading to the collapse of his government and subsequent loss to Barak in the 1999 elections.
will probably work hard in the coming phase to bring Kadima into the coalition in an attempt to placate regional partners and the US. Without Kadima on board the Israeli government will remain rickety.
With Lieberman at the Foreign Ministry more tensions are to be expected, not least with Egypt. Should Lieberman pull out, which he is likely to do at the first whiff of a possible peace deal, the government, with just 54 seats, would collapse. may seek to reinforce it by courting the ultra right United Torah and National Union, but that would be a temporary solution.
Lieberman's first speech did not disappoint sceptics. During the handover ceremony at the Foreign Ministry, Israel's new foreign minister said his country is not bound by any commitment it might have made at the 2007 Annapolis conference to pursue the creation of a Palestinian state. "That conference has no validity," he said. "The government never ratified Annapolis, nor did parliament."
Egypt must remain cool to 's government unless he commits publicly to the two-state solution and makes Lieberman apologise for the unpleasant things he has said about Egypt and its president.
The government appears to be heading down a collision course not just with its Arab neighbours but with the US administration and the EU. Only the prospect of Kadima joining its ranks will save it.


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