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What to make of 30 June
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 02 - 07 - 2009

Doaa El-Bey reviews the start of American redeployment from Iraq and whether swine flu can affect the pilgrimage
Writers differed over the significance of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.
The Omani daily Oman regarded the start of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq as a very important occasion not only for the factions and political parties in Iraq but also for the region's countries that are looking forward to peace, security and stability.
US President Barack Obama repeatedly pledged to abide by the terms of the security agreement signed at the end of last year and confirmed that Washington does not intend to stay in Iraq for good or exploit its resources, especially oil. The coming days will show how serious he is in keeping his promises.
The newspaper's editorial pointed to the important fact that the US withdrawal cannot be carried out separately from the development in the security situation in Iraq on the one hand and the ability of Iraqi troops to preserve peace and security on the other.
It expected a surge in violence in the immediate future because there are various parties that want to cast doubt on the ability of the Iraqi forces to keep the peace. "But the Iraqis are definitely looking forward to the day and want to make it the start of a new phase of security and stability," the edit read.
However, the edit added that this could only be achieved if all Iraq parties worked to reach the highest levels of agreement.
Shabah Ali El-Shaer questioned whether 30 June should be a national holiday, a feast or simply another normal black day of occupation. El-Shaer said it was neither of the two. It is not a normal day since Iraqis will wake up to find American tanks and Hammers and heavily armed US soldiers had disappeared from inside Iraqi cities. However, they will still be very conspicuously present on the borders of the cities in bases that nobody dares declare their number.
Thus, the word "withdrawal" seems to be a procrastinating term, as it indicates something positive, whereas in reality it isn't. "According to military terminology, one cannot call this withdrawal but a redeployment of troops. US troops are simply leaving Iraqi cities and redeploying to the borders only in the interest of the US soldier who has become an easy target to those who resist or reject the US presence," El-Shaer wrote in the Iraqi independent political daily Azzaman.
He emphasised that the redeployment of US troops is a US unilateral decision that has nothing to do with the Iraqi ability to preserve security because the security of the Iraqi citizen does not concern US troops. No wonder the occupation is called liberation and redeployment is called withdrawal, he concluded.
Wafiq Al-Sammarai wrote that many people are worried about the future of Iraq after the withdrawal of US troops as that could allow an escalation of attacks against the Iraqi authority. But while he ruled out total disarray, he said it was premature to expect an end to violence and a cessation of all anti-government activities.
He wrote that any unbiased military assessment would state that there is noticeable progress in building the army and the police whose forces have never reached the present size throughout Iraqi history while the army has exceeded 300,000. Thus, Al-Sammarai anticipated that the greatest future dangers are in Al-Qaeda, the Iranian role and political differences. Up till now there is no genuine breakthrough towards settling the differences between the political blocs. Mutual distrust governs the relationship between the parties.
In addition, there is no noticeable development in resolving pending issues between the central authority and Kurdistan or reaching a clear resolution on the complex problem of Kirkuk.
Al-Sammarai concluded in the London-based political daily Asharq Al-Awsat that the coming days will be a real test for the army, police and security forces.
Mustafa Zein hailed the Iraqi efforts to reach the security pact with the US which led to the US troop withdrawal. He regarded it as a cause for celebration and considered the withdrawal a "day of sovereignty" that would pave the way for full withdrawal by the end of 2011 as Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki said.
However, Zein added that US occupation was not the only thing that had encroached on Iraqi sovereignty. Factional and ethnic conflicts in addition to dividing Iraq among Sunnis, Shia and Kurds had also played a part.
"Each faction in Iraq declared independence and practised a right to veto the central government whenever it wanted. As a result, up till now the government has failed to issue oil or gas laws. The veto of the factions encroaches on the sovereignty of Iraq. The Lebanese experience that has lasted for 60 years is clear proof of that," Zein wrote in the London-based political daily Al-Hayat.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's proposal to halt the building of settlements for three months was regarded as another manoeuvre to buy time. The United Arab Emirates daily Al-Bayan described it as an absurd attempt to appear as if Netanyahu was responding to two US demands: stop building settlements and resume negotiations with the Palestinians. But linking that proposal to a short period of time shows that it is not genuine because a halt to building settlements is conditional upon returning to the negotiating table. And the success of the negotiations depends on removing settlements, or at least a halt on building more settlements, during the negotiations.
According to the Israeli press, Defence Minister Ehud Barak will try to sell that proposition to Obama in response to Washington's stated demand.
The editorial regarded that fact -- that work will continue in some 2,000 settlements because work has already started -- as even more absurd. The Israeli adherence to building more settlements reflects a crystal clear fact: that it is buying time to usurp more Palestinian land in order to impose a de facto situation on the ground and shatter all possibilities for a Palestinian state.
"The Israeli proposal shows that Netanyahu's government is trying to escape from its commitments by procrastinating. And it is up to Washington to put an end to the game," the edit concluded.


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