To do nothing rash appears the order of the day among Arab states, though crises abound, Dina Ezzat reports Arab foreign ministers are expected to end their regular autumn council meeting Thursday afternoon at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League passing close to 30 resolutions aimed to say something about the chronic and new problems facing the Arab world. But the draft resolutions, handed over to ministers by their permanent representatives, appear void of action-oriented language. According to the assessment of some Arab diplomats, the ministerial meeting was not set to go far beyond familiar political posturing, though it comes against a backdrop of negative developments. Management of the chronic Arab-Israeli conflict seemed set to enter a new phase of disillusionment as Arab capitals become more aware of the difficulties facing US President Barack Obama in getting the Israeli government to suspend its illegal settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territories as a necessary condition to relaunching bilateral peace talks between the Palestinians and Israel. Speaking to the press Monday evening, Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa seemed sombre over the chances of resuming peace talks any time soon. "It seems that words [those said on the resumption of peace talks] were only words designed to [coat] demands made to Arab countries to make acts of normalisation towards Israel," he said. Speaking in the wake of an Israeli declaration to step up plans for the expansion of new illegal settlements on occupied Palestinian territories, Moussa argued -- in all but an appeal to Arab capitals -- that normalisation steps, large or small, should not come for free. And despite the upbeat statement of Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Mauratinos, standing next to Moussa at the League following consultations on peace, Moussa was still advising caution. Mauratinos said that US Middle East Envoy George Mitchell is nearing an agreement with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on a moratorium on settlement construction. But for Moussa, "there has to be clear and manifest commitment" that the freeze on construction "be comprehensive and include East Jerusalem". Yet, despite Moussa's grandstanding, Arab diplomats from several Gulf and North African countries confirmed to Al-Ahram Weekly reports suggesting their inclination "to support Obama in his efforts to sell a peace deal to the Israelis" by considering some forms of trade and aviation normalisation with Israel. And judging by the statements Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit made Tuesday morning following talks between President Hosni Mubarak and Mauratinos, the mood seems in favour of dangling carrots, not wielding sticks. "We don't want to take too tough a stance now, so as not to prejudge the American efforts that Obama will personally conduct during the UN General Assembly meeting next week in New York," an Egyptian diplomat told the Weekly. As such the request made by Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal for Moussa to get foreign ministers to articulate their opposition to premature acts of normalisation is unlikely to be met. Arab foreign ministers, however, will condemn Israeli intransigence on settlement construction, in language that might not be too different from that adopted Tuesday by the European Union. They will reiterate their basic positions on Arab rights: an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital; the right of return for Palestinian refugees; the need for a full Israeli withdrawal from Syrian and Lebanese territories occupied in 1967. According to Hesham Youssef, Moussa's chief of cabinet, a follow-up meeting on developments in peace process is scheduled to take place, days after today's ministerial meeting. The Arab Peace Initiative Committee is planning to meet at the ministerial level in Cairo with the participation of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. "It will be just before Arab delegations go to the UN General Assembly and it will go far beyond addressing an Arab reaction to the continued construction of illegal settlements; it will address the Arab political position should Israeli intransigence continue to block the resumption of peace talks," Youssef said on the eve of the meeting. The lack of resolve in language appears to go beyond the Arab-Israeli file. The recent fallout between Syria and Iraq over alleged Syrian involvement in recent bombings is unlikely to be addressed or resolved. Iraqi diplomats said Baghdad is not in favour of a resolution on this matter, especially that Iraq has asked the UN to order an international inspection in alleged Syrian involvement in explosions. Syrian diplomats also are nonchalant, though they want the Arab League to get Iraq off the idea of an international investigation. "We believe it is only disastrous to internationalise Arab affairs and problems," said Ahmed Youssef, Syria's permanent representative to the Arab League. On Tuesday evening Moussa met with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari on the matter. On Wednesday evening Moussa was planning a meeting with Zebari, his Syrian counterpart Walid Al-Muallim and Ahmet Davutoglu, foreign minister of Turkey who has been mediating to contain the Iraq-Syria tension. Youssef told the Weekly that a number of Arab foreign ministers will join the meeting. Meanwhile, Arab foreign ministers are also pressured by Yemen and Saudi Arabia to avoid adopting a resolution on the recent civil war in southern Yemen. The appeal made by the Yemeni Shia opposition for Arab interference for peace in the south of the country is unlikely to be reflected, at least not in clear words, in resolutions Arab foreign ministers will adopt Thursday evening. A senior Yemeni diplomat told the Weekly that his government "told the Arab League that this is a strictly internal matter on which Yemen will accept no interference". Following extensive talks with Moussa at the Arab League Tuesday, Yemeni Foreign Minister Abu Bakr Al-Kerabi told reporters that Sanaa is calling on the southern opposition to come to terms with a government peace plan. However, a source in the opposition told the Weekly that the proposed plan is too unfair. No humanitarian assistance to southern Yemen appears to be welcomed by the Yemeni government. Other Arab dilemmas, including the continued tragedy in Darfur and the recent wave of inter-tribal violence in Southern Sudan are also unlikely to be addressed with urgency. Typical calls for peaceful settlements and hardly kept promises of development plans are expected. The same goes for chronically dysfunctional Somalia. (see pp.2&6)
