With the ouster of Al-Shabab forces from Kismayo, Somalia's political parties are preparing for a new era of prosperity in the country, writes Gamal Nkrumah According to Al-Shabab, the movement's banishment from its last urban stronghold in Somalia, Kismayo, is a "tactical" move. Movement forces still control the port city's hinterland, and the surrounding countryside is a no-go area for Somali government troops. Moreover, the political chaos in Somalia has drawn in the military intervention of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) with the full backing of the Western powers. The Kenyan troops that overran Kismayo are an integral part of AMISOM. However, newly-elected Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud has sounded alarm bells for Al-Shabab. "The so-called election maintains the status quo by allowing foreign companies to steal Somalia's resources and to destroy its economy. [Former president] Sharif's replacement is nothing more than a revised edition of traitors serving those interests," Al-Shabab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mahmoud Rage was quoted as saying. "They represent Western interests, and the interests of their agents in the region," he added. Despite the setbacks, Al-Shabab forces "will continue to fight these apostates, as we have been before," Rage said. Somalia has long been divided into three regions -- Somaliland in the northwest, Puntland in the northeast, and the rest of the country. Somaliland, a self-declared independent entity, has managed to run its own affairs since 1991, presumably with secret ties to Ethiopia. Kismayo then metamorphosed into a fiefdom for Al-Shabab. There have been many blueprints for the re-unification of Somalia, but despite some successes the political status of Puntland and Somaliland have remained as they were. In 2007, the late Ethiopian leader Meles Zenawi ordered Ethiopian troops to enter Somalia, eventually taking control of vast swathes of the southern and central parts of the country, especially the capital Mogadishu. African Union (AU) troops were deployed in the capital, and Al-Shabab militiamen fled. The later political process then became a template for possible reunification, but there are still pockets of resistance even inside Mogadishu and in the southern parts of the country. A year ago, AU troops controlled barely half of the capital. Today, they control most of the country. Power shifts are occurring in Somalia, and yet reminders of past atrocities remain. Last Thursday, a suicide bomber believed to be a woman killed at least 15 people and wounded scores more at an up-market eatery, the Village Restaurant, in the commercial heart of Mogadishu frequented by the city's expatriate community, aid workers, government employees and journalists. The restaurant, located opposite the National Theatre and not far from the presidential palace, was a favourite meeting place for Somali politicians. "We were behind the blasts. It was a well-planned mujahideen operation," said Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musaab, spokesman for Al-Shabab's military operations. The question uppermost in the minds of Somalis is whether these blasts will weaken the resolve of the Somali people to advance the democratisation process in the country. Somalia is a playground for former warlords, now MPs in the Somali parliament and many of them millionaires with private armies to boot. The warlords were supposed to be excluded from the political process and not to participate in the parliamentary elections, but such rules were not enforced. Al-Shabab has led a deadly insurgency fuelled by a sense of social injustice. Vote-buying is common, with tribal elders choosing most MPs in August's elections, even as the parliamentarians themselves chose a technocrat as president. Endemic corruption has also plagued the country. According to Al-Jazeera one elections candidate paid $10,000 to be on the ballot in order to support the presidential campaign. At the same time, most Somalis face hunger and destitution, with two million needing humanitarian assistance. A roadmap for Somalia's march to democracy and blueprint for social and political stability is in the making, and a constitution is being drawn up. In addition to nominally independent Somaliland, not recognised by any other country, Puntland has not declared its independence but did opt for autonomous status in 1998. Perched in the northeast portion of the country, it is an oasis of prosperity when compared to the rest of the country. Members of the Somali political establishment struggle to appreciate that the hard times for the vast majority of their compatriots mean greater scrutiny of the privileged few. The public mood in Somalia has changed, but it is doubtful whether the new Somali government will be able to seize the moment. What is happening in Somalia is a much-needed re-assessment of acceptable standards of political behaviour. It might seem an odd moment to discuss property development in the capital Mogadishu, but the city with its two million inhabitants is booming, at least the scenic seaside stretch. Nevertheless, the president narrowly escaped an assassination attempt on Tuesday, when Al-Shabab militiamen ambushed the presidential motorcade as it approached the Afogye Corridor, Africa and the world's largest concentration of displaced people. Expatriates, however, are trickling back to the Somali capital, notwithstanding the tense political situation. Turkish Airlines is now operating weekly flights to the newly refurbished Mogadishu International Airport, and Istanbul is emerging as the gateway for Somali émigrés returning from Europe and North America to invest in their capital's unprecedented property boom. Somalis returning from the Gulf Arab states also do not question too closely the nature of the Somali state in the making. Islamist investors are collaborating with Gulf financial institutions, and Somali property developers are transforming what was once a sleepy backwater and then dilapidated war zone into the Dubai of the East African Indian Ocean. Mogadishu airport is short of parking spaces for private jets, and at this rate of reconstruction the war-torn Somali capital will no longer be a hardship post for many. The Islamists are expected to defend their oligopolies in real estate, shopping malls and supermarkets, just like other less ideologically-inclined Somali capitalists. Intrepid investors are descending on Mogadishu with an avaricious eagerness, what the Somali president, with nine lives like a cat, would call a courageous decision. He is likely to gratify such fat cats in the months ahead, assuming that he survives the artillery fire and anti-aircraft guns of his adversaries Al-Shabab. Former Somali president Sharif Ahmed at least demonstrated that he was sensitive to the concerns of local and expatriate entrepreneurs, nearly all of whom supported him for their own selfish interests. To make matters worse for Mogadishu's poor and disadvantaged, berthing charges for the luxury yachts of the rich are ridiculously low, and yet Somali fishermen are hounded in Somalia's own territorial waters, some of them being dismissed as pirates. Nine EU warships from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Portugal patrol the Indian Ocean waters around Mogadishu. Over the past decade, some businessmen have done well out of the war, though now they will have to conclude that peace is better for business. Kenya's navy is patrolling the adjacent coastal areas of southern Somalia, and there has been heavy fighting in recent weeks between Kenyan troops stationed along the border with Somalia and Al-Shabab. The Kenyan authorities are collaborating closely with neighbouring Ethiopia and the AU, giving Kenya an entrée into Somalia. Like Ethiopia, Kenya has a sizeable ethnic Somali population, and these people are focused on the challenges ahead in Somalia, especially vis-�-vis Al-Shabab. Though Al-Shabab fighters recently fired anti-aircraft shots at two foreign warships, this was widely seen as their swansong. Indeed, the most important military event in Somalia this month was the joint AU and Somali government troops overrunning the Afgoye Corridor. Hailed as an unprecedented military breakthrough, the triumph of AMISOM spelled the beginning of the end for Al-Shabab. The movement's days as a military force to be reckoned with are numbered, the Somali political establishment insists, and it now appears to be losing its grip on Kismayo. With peace has come a new sense of nationalism and a harking back to the good old days. The Somali capital is fast becoming a plutocrat's paradise, and five-star hotels and skyscrapers are transforming the skyline, with income differentials fast widening.ss
