Amid continuing violence and uncertainty, Libya will go to the polls -- or at least some Libyans, notes Gamal Nkrumah Alas the fast changing power balance in Libya will make it harder to alter the perilous route the ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) has charted for the country's political future. Libyans began registering last Tuesday to vote in June elections -- the first free polls following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. There are 1,500 registration centres around the country. "We can see that a lot of people have come from the first hour and this can be seen as a positive beginning and everyone is very happy," Nouri Al-Abbar, head of Libya's elections commission, told reporters in Tripoli. Many local businesspersons, as well as foreign investors, hope that a new government can dispel the prevailing gloom. Some 80 of 200 parliamentary seats will be reserved for political parties, the rest left for independent candidates. "We don't understand this law," a Muslim Brotherhood statement read. "It could mean nothing or it could mean that none of us could participate in the elections." The group may well be right. The Muslim Brotherhood in Libya is by no means a shoo-in at the polls. Many Libyans are fed up with the NTC and would in all probability vote for the Muslim Brothers. Yet the political opposition is divided and has failed to agree on a single inspiring national political platform. The most familiar figures in the post-Gaddafi political scene are former Gaddafi henchmen who have scented blood. Emigrés have returned to Libya and are playing a key role in the economic, social and political development of the country. However, they do not have political clout and are unfamiliar with the tribal politics that has come to dominate the Libyan political scene. The country's political establishment also appears to be turning against the NTC and rejects the notion that the ruling body is the new political establishment in the country. In a seeming shot across the bows of the NTC, the Muslim Brotherhood in particular demands a greater say in the decision-making process in post-Gaddafi Libya. The NTC itself includes many sympathisers of the Muslim Brotherhood and they are determined that even if there are further violent protests in the run-up to the Libyan parliamentary poll, the nascent Libyan democracy should survive. The forthcoming elections might appear a turning point against the NTC. The crux of the matter is that, as Gaddafi's horrendous end hints, those who reign by terror -- no matter whether or not it is termed "benign dictatorship" -- will perish by terror. The last elections in Libya were held in March 2010 with the population voting for members of the now defunct General People's Congress under the leadership of Gaddafi's Libyan Arab Socialist Jamahiriya. With plenty to argue about there are two reasons why the arguments are becoming more strident. First, is the threat of fragmentation of the Libyan nation into rival tribal confederacies and militias based on urban areas that were seen as either anti- or pro-Gaddafi, and the latest emergence of militants in eastern Libya, Cyrenaica who want an autonomous region perhaps leading eventually to independence. But as an attention grabbing regional issue, Libya's political stability and the technicalities of enforcing democratic Western-style multi-party pluralism have created tribal disputes of an almost apocalyptic nature. Disputes over the political future of Libya are no nearer resolution than ever. Of all the claimants to Libya's oil wealth, the one that Tripoli is in active dispute with is Cyrenaica, the region with the largest reserves of oil and natural gas but that has fewer people than Tripoli and other parts of Western Libya. The poor state of government machinery in Libya is a further reason for mounting disgruntlement. In many areas of the country, the NTC has either ground to a halt or been overwhelmed by local militias who have become the dominant powers. During the election registration period violence erupted around several schools where voters were registering. Militias in pickup trucks were seen attacking queues of civilians holding national identity cards and several people were injured in the ensuing fracas. Beaten but unbowed, the Green Resistance, the armed militia that upholds the ideals of the late slain Libyan leader Gaddafi, has shied away from the pitfalls of theological debate engulfing Libya at the moment. The Libyan political impasse and the myriad disputes it generates have begged political questions on a nationwide and regional scale. The NTC also pays a political price at home for security ties with the United States and with NATO. The stakes are high, because of the enormous economic significance of tremendous oil reserves in Libya. Libyan websites are agog with debate on the new constitution and the future of Cyrenaica. Meanwhile, NTC Chairman Mustafa Abdel-Jalil has reportedly undergone hernia surgery. His state of health is said to be satisfactory. It is certainly no coincidence that Abdel-Jalil is making a point of widening his circle of friends. Abdel-Jalil's main headache is oil-rich Cyrenaica. "We don't want to be part of the National Congress. It is just another form of marginalisation by the West (Tripolitania)," Ahmed Al-Zubeir, a self-styled spokesman for Cyrenaica told reporters in Benghazi, the largest city in eastern Libya and the bastion of the Libyan anti-Gaddafi revolution. With a population of six million, Libya has 3.5 million eligible voters. "The number of voters registered on Saturday was 330,000," Nouri Al-Abbar told reporters in Tripoli. As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press it was estimated that around half a million Libyan voters had registered. Cause for concern? The poll, it appears, is not for some. With the Cyrenaica issue yet unresolved, choppy waters remain ahead for the Libyan people.
