According to opinion polls, the Islamist Al-Nahda Party will gain the most votes in the forthcoming Tunisian elections, writes Al-As'ad bin Ahmed from Tunis Campaigning for the elections to choose members of a National Constituent Assembly (NCA) that will write a new constitution began in Tunisia at the weekend, with the campaigning expected to continue until 21 October, two days before the historic multi-party elections. More than 100 political parties are contesting the elections, most of them created after the 14 January Revolution that saw the ousting of former Tunisian president Zein Al-Abidine Bin Ali, as well as substantive lists of independent candidates and alliances. The number of candidates at the launch of campaigning was nearly 11,000 distributed among over 1,400 separate lists, 787 of them party lists, 587 independent lists and 54 alliance lists. While there is optimism among the country's various social, political and economic actors about the holding of the country's first free elections after the fall of the Bin Ali regime earlier this year, many Tunisians have not been able to hide concerns about what the ballot boxes may hold in store in October. None of the parties know the extent of their popularity on the new political map, and the country has witnessed the return of a number of formerly exiled political activists from abroad in the wake of January's Revolution. Many new political parties have been formed, while the former ruling party, the Rassemblement constitutionnel démocratique (RCD), has been restructured after its dissolution in the wake of the revolution. Some 8,000 former members have been banned from participating in future political activities. Such concerns have manifested themselves in the comparatively little interest the public has so far shown in the election campaign and the lack of press coverage and campaign flyers. Distributing election materials has been slow, since a number of the political parties lack experience and funds, leaving the arena open for the dozen or so older parties that existed under the former regime. At the same time, many people have not registered to vote because they say they either do not know the candidates or do not understand the role of the NCA. People have not regained their confidence in politics or the media, most of which supported the former regime. According to opinion polls published at the launch of the campaigning, the Islamist Al-Nahda Party will gain the most votes, with 25 per cent of those questioned saying that they would vote for it in the forthcoming elections. Al-Nahda was followed by the Progressive Democratic Party at 16 per cent and the Work and Freedom Party with 14 per cent. These were trailed by the Congress for the Republic Party with eight per cent. The remaining parties, such as Al-Watan, Al-Badera, Afaq and others, share no more than three per cent of the vote, according to opinion polls. According to observers, the Islamist movement has a large following among the people as a whole, as was demonstrated by popular support at the launch of its campaign in the town of Sidi Bouzaid, where the first spark of the revolution took place. The Work and Freedom Party is popular among intellectuals, which has caused some observers to believe that the party's leader, Mustafa bin Gaafar, could be elected president through an alliance with the Islamists after the assembly elections. The forthcoming elections are a historic event in Tunisia, even though their mandate is only to elect an assembly to write a new constitution that will stay in power for no longer than one year. However, they are expected to crown the success of the Tunisian Revolution and place it on a legal footing. The present government was not formed on the basis of elections or the constitution, but rather as a result of a national consensus after the previous constitution was suspended after the ousting of the previous president. One of the first goals of the NCA will be to appoint a new government or reappoint the incumbent ministers. The Assembly could also appoint a temporary president until parliamentary and presidential elections are held, depending on what the new constitution stipulates. The elections are also important because they will gauge the popularity of each party or political trend in the country, something that otherwise has not been able to be measured. The previous political scene in the country was dominated by the now-dissolved RCD, which sidelined all other real opposition parties, leaving only pro-regime caricatures. Another important aspect of the elections pertains to economic actors and foreign partners who have been waiting for signs of improvements to the situation in the country before restarting work and investment. Once this happens, it will create job opportunities for Tunisian young people, who suffer from deteriorating living conditions across the country. There are many similarities among the electoral platforms of the political parties, in terms of their promises of freedom, dignity, improved living conditions and equal job opportunities. The parties do diverge, however, on the future constitutional structure of the country. While some parties prefer a parliamentary system that curtails the powers of the president, others favour a presidential republic, saying that this is the better option for Tunisia. Over recent weeks and months there has also been a heated debate in the country between the champions of secularism, who are calling for the separation of religion and state, and the Islamist trend that does not see a contradiction in combining religion and politics. This debate has notably discussed the first section of the former constitution, which states that Tunisia is an Arab republic and that Islam is its religion.
