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Final warning
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 11 - 08 - 2011

Turkey has lost patience with the Syrian regime, with the "strategic" relationship between the two countries facing complete collapse, reports Bassel Oudat in Damascus
Turkey is once again digging in its heels towards Syria. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said bluntly, "We have lost patience and therefore on Tuesday I will send Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Syria." Erdogan added: "He will hold talks there to firmly convey our message." Turkey would formulate a final position according to the outcome of the meeting.
Bothayna Shaaban, political and media adviser to the Syrian president, was quick to respond to Erdogan, noting: "If the Turkish foreign minister is coming to Syria to convey a firm message, then he will hear even firmer words regarding Turkey's position, which has so far not condemned the vicious killings by armed terrorist groups."
Shaaban said that Syria rejects outright any attempts to interfere in its domestic affairs by any regional or international power. The Syrian opposition mocked Shaaban's response to Erdogan's statements and described her criticism as "an underestimation of the situation and danger surrounding the Syrian regime".
The Local Coordination Committees (LCC) in Damascus took the opportunity of Erdogan's visit to invite him to perform taraweeh (late night) prayers at Al-Hassan Mosque in Al-Midan district, "to hear directly hear about the demands of the Syrian people" and "witness the suppression and violence security forces are exercising against worshippers". Five demonstrators have been killed so far in Al-Midan since the beginning of Ramadan.
Erdogan statement's came one day ahead of his meeting with the new military leadership and the National Security Committee to discuss conditions in Syria. The meetings were attended by the ministers of foreign affairs and defence, as well as the leaders of the army and security agencies.
On the eve of Davutoglu's visit to Syria, US State Department Spokesman Mark Toner announced that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton telephoned her Turkish counterpart to inform him of Washington's position that Syria must immediately send back its soldiers to their barracks and release all detainees. Clinton reiterated the US's stance of support for democratic transformation in Syria.
The war of words between Turkey and Syria at the end of last week started when Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc described the attack by Syrian forces on the city of Hama as "a ruthless act... and anyone capable of this could never be a friend. They are committing a grave mistake." This was the strongest criticism by a Turkish leader of the manner by which the Syrian regime is facing down protests that began in March demanding democracy.
In response, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallim said a few days ago that he rejects "lectures" from Turkey and its interference in Syria's domestic affairs. "As much as Turkey has influence beyond its borders, so does Syria," Al-Muallim said. Al-Watan newspaper, which is close to the regime, attacked the Turkish position regarding protests in Syria and described Ankara's posture as "hasty and improvised".
With this "final warning", Turkey indicated that it is ready to take action regarding ties with Syria, but it did not state the nature of such action were the Syrian regime to ignore the warning. Western diplomatic sources predicted that Ankara could create a buffer zone that prevents any instability from spreading into Turkey, or encourage the formation of any Kurdish pockets inside Syria. Also, imposing a no-fly zone on parts of Syria is a possibility, but accountability "will be international not to Turkey", according to these sources.
Turkish-Syrian relations derailed after Ankara chose one camp over another in the domestic conflict within Syria, organising and hosting meetings of the Syrian opposition in Turkey. From multi-faceted comprehensive strategic relations to direct and open animosity, ties unravelled surprisingly fast.
Before 2000, the relationship between Syria and Turkey was hostile after Iskandarun Province was annexed to Turkey in 1938, as well as Ankara's refusal to recognise that the Euphrates River is an international waterway. Turkey also ignored the problem of Syrian property on the Turkish side of the border, joined NATO and embarked on relations with Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, Damascus was allied with the liberation movement and then with the group of socialist states. Tensions almost triggered two wars between the states: first, in 1957 during the Baghdad Alliance and again in 1998 when Syria was cooperating with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Turkey's arch enemy.
When the Justice and Development Party reached to power in Turkey, relations improved quickly to become strategic ties and a partnership, manifested in 55 bilateral agreements in an array of sectors. These included eliminating entry visas between the two neighbours, removing mines from the border region, and implementing the Adana Agreement of 1998, which reportedly allows the Turkish army to pursue "terrorists" into Syria for a depth of five kilometres, but does not give the same right to the Syrian army. Also, signing a free trade agreement, raising trade to more than $1 billion, as well as opening Syrian markets to Turkish products and giving them preferred status. Everyone believed that such strong ties could not be undone, and each side believed they were winners.
Conditions erupted in Syria in mid-March, however, as protests grew into an all-out uprising. Contrary to the expectations of Syrian politicians, and even the people of Syria, from the onset Ankara supported the popular movement. Erdogan revealed that he advised Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad more than once to carry out democratic reforms, but to no avail; he also sent his chief of intelligence to Syria for talks with Syrian officials.
As the Syrian regime was unresponsive, Ankara took a harder line and Erdogan stated he is concerned that "sectarian fighting will erupt in Syria that could divide the country". Alongside these statements, he began supporting the Syrian opposition.
Turkey's positions have raised the hopes of protesters and demonstrators in Syria, making them believe that foreign assistance is at hand -- albeit not from the US, but a friendly Muslim neighbour that has no colonial ambitions. They also gave the Islamist movement in the uprising a prominent role and much needed moral support.
Turkey adopted the Syrian opposition and provided them with political support, allowing it to hold conferences across Turkey. In reality, Turkey became the solid ground for Syria's opposition to take action, and also received Syrian refugees who fled border cities after the invasion of military and security forces there. It has also invited official delegations and the media to visit refugee camps.
Protesters are relieved to find an ally, and if Ankara had not changed its position later there would have been tens of thousands of Syrian refugees. Turkey also played a critical role in convincing the EU and the US administration to take a firmer stand on events in Syria.
Turkey's enthusiasm in supporting the Syrian uprising waned, however, as revealed in a number of statements by senior Turkish officials who described ties with Syria as "strong, solid and unaffected by unexpected events". Also, that Turkey "does not dictate to them what to do" and other such proclamations. These statements were accompanied by restricting the flow of Syrian refugees and putting them under siege; but it did not limit the activities of the Syrian Islamist opposition that views Turkey as the base and launching pad of its action. In fact, Ankara continues to encourage and support it.
Turkey maintained this posture until the military campaign on the Syrian city of Hama, followed by Deir Al-Zur. Ankara was concerned that a massacre similar to the one in 1982 would take place in Hama that killed more than 20,000 city residents. There is also regional, international and Arab consensus to increase pressure on the Syrian regime to stop the violence and comply with the demands of the Syrian people.
The Syrian opposition believes it is unlikely that the regime will listen to Turkey's calls for caution and moderation, because "using force" is the only option left for it. They believe it will continue its current policy irrespective of the cost.


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