Five questions posed to five of Egypt's prominent intellectuals. Their answers to Al-Ahram Weekly's Editor-in-Chief Assem El-Kersh provide telling insights into what they believe is next for Egypt and the region How optimistic are you? Hossam Badrawi, Member of the Shura Council A new year always brings a sense of optimism, and my reasons for optimism for 2011 are: - The election of a new president -- even if it is the same person -- should trigger new aspirations and usher in an era of renewed hope. - I sense that the coming year will bring radical political reform that addresses much of the aspirations of the Egyptian people and leads to a consolidation of democracy in Egypt. The signs of reform include the resolve to introduce decentralisation and thus invite broader larger societal participation and introduce oversight by the local authorities on executive work. - Young Egyptians are getting better at expressing themselves, their thoughts and their aspirations. This is good, for Egypt is considered, demographically speaking, a young country. And the future, once in the hands of youths, will get better. - I see a change in the government's policies and strategies and also in the way the public constantly demands proof for things that are presented as fact. This is a sign of heightened public awareness. Mounir Fakhri Abdel-Nour, Secretary-general of the Wafd I am very concerned, even a bit pessimistic, about what the new year may bring. Social tensions are rising in Egypt due to the unprecedented gap between rich and poor, coupled with the rise in unemployment and the increase in numbers of poor people, disadvantaged people, and people who live in informal areas. - Sectarian tensions and mistrust pose a threat to the national fabric. - The recent political crisis, resulting from the ruling party monopolising authority and excluding the opposition from the parliament is also worrisome. - There are other accumulated problems facing society, including the problem of water and the collapse of public amenities and services including education, health and justice. All of the above makes me more pessimistic than optimistic. In the Arab world: - South Sudan is going to secede from the north and things will get worse in Darfur. Bahgat Korani, Professor of International Relations at the American University in Cairo Rather than pessimistic or optimistic, I am mostly concerned. The reason for my concern is our inability to face up to inevitable change in different walks of life: from politics to the evolution of society. For instance, despite the increasing number of youth, we do not yet have a coherent policy that could channel their strong energies in a positive way. Only this year, I had the chance to be in two international meetings to "social engineer" the future in Europe and Asia. Why can't we have such meetings for Egypt and also the Arab world? Amr Hamzawy, Research director and senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut Domestically as well as regionally there are more reasons for pessimism than optimism. Egypt just went through a parliamentary election which left the political arena highly polarised, between the government and the organised opposition, and created an anti-dialogue preference in addition to a drive towards exclusion on the two sides. Clearly, such an environment challenges both government and opposition and demands swift action by the two sides to avoid Egyptian politics slipping into a legitimacy crisis, to put in place the needed ingredients for fair and free transparent presidential elections in 2011, and to restore for Egyptian citizens their hope in politics. Domestically, as well, our social and economic challenges, especially the increase in sectarian tension and the persistent crises of poverty and unemployment, continue to threaten stability and hinder progress. Sustaining the current level of annual economic growth (around seven per cent) and acting swiftly to ease sectarian tension by addressing its legal and social root causes, should be high on the government's agenda in 2011 and deserves attention from the opposition and civil society. Hussein Abdel-Ghani, Journalist and former Al-Jazeera Cairo bureau chief I am rather pessimistic about 2011 because in Egypt and the Arab world (the problems are the same everywhere) the forces of reform that seek to reverse the deteriorating conditions are too weak to introduce change. Meanwhile, the Arab regimes lack the political will to introduce reforms voluntarily. Therefore, the situation will keep deteriorating. Next big thing Hossam Badrawi, Member of the Shura Council Definitely the presidential elections and its outcome. I would like to see elections that are conducted in earnest and are transparent and in which various candidates from Egypt's political parties would compete. Personally -- and I am not speaking for everyone in my party -- I would like to see effective international monitoring of the elections. In Sudan, after the referendum, will the south secede or remain part of the country? The situation in Sudan may reflect badly on Egypt, especially when President Al-Bashir says that if the south secedes, he will establish an Islamic state in north Sudan. This is bad news for Egypt, which believes in a secular state and equality among all citizens. Sudan is a natural continuum of Egypt and to turn parts of it into religious states is against all our constitutional principles. The situation in Sudan is just one aspect of the sad state of affairs in the Arab world. Iraq has split up in the north and Sudan is on its way to losing the south. This is happening at a time when the rest of the world is moving toward alliances and joint economies and forming unions. Mounir Fakhri Abdel-Nour, Secretary-general of the Wafd In Egypt, the biggest crisis is that of a political regime which seems to be divorced from everything people believe in these days. The world has seen numerous countries move on from autocracy to democracy in the past decade. This happened due to many factors, mainly the technological progress in communications. But in Egypt, the country is moving in the opposite direction, with more concentration of power and restriction of freedom. This is hardly reassuring. Regionally: The next crisis is going to break out after the secession of south Sudan, and it will be mainly about the division of the Nile waters between the upstream and downstream countries. Internationally: The hottest spots in the world will be Afghanistan and Pakistan. Bahgat Korani, Professor of International Relations at the American University in Cairo The next possible major world crisis will unfortunately be the secession in Sudan that is feared to lead to its disintegration. Israel will most likely try and provoke Hizbullah to an armed confrontation or a war of attrition while the US escalates its sanctions on Iran. An additional cause for worry is that Yemen and Sudan could soon join the list of failed nations although I don't expect foreign intervention in either. Amr Hamzawy, Research director and senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut The long list of unsolved regional conflicts and tension does not seem to be up for substantial cuts in 2011. On the contrary, the expected creation of an independent state in South Sudan and the growing dysfunctionality of the Yemeni state will add to the already existing conflicts in Israel-Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, and the threat of deterritorialised terrorism. The failure of global powers -- especially the United States -- and regional actors -- such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran -- to significantly push any of the existing conflicts to the point of successful negotiated solutions casts doubts over their ability to tackle the Sudan and Yemen conflicts that are expected to become more challenging in 2011. Hussein Abdel-Ghani, Journalist and former Al-Jazeera Cairo bureau chief Increased tension and social violence and more sectarian incidents will be accompanied by continued protests by workers and employees as prices keep rising and the standards of living dip for most Egyptians. Regionally, that the referendum in Sudan would turn into a civil war, thus threatening Egyptian national security and posing grave challenges with regard to Egypt's share in the Nile waters. Another concern is that Abu Mazen would accept a US deal that is unfair to the Palestinians, thus liquidating the cause celebre for all Arabs and increasing the threat of a militarily-superior Israel to Egyptian national security and the possibility of another military attack on Gaza to liquidate Hamas and Jihad once and for all. Most important news story in Egypt in 2011 Hossam Badrawi, Member of the Shura Council I believe that will be the Egyptian elections and what the candidates will offer to the Egyptian public in terms of programmes and policies. A consequent vitality will emerge from the elections, one that would enrich the Egyptian political arena. I believe that the elections are a good opportu nity for everyone to get used to deducing facts and examining programmes and comparing the tendencies, programmes and mechanisms of various parties. Mounir Fakhri Abdel-Nour, Secretary-general of the Wafd The presidential elections. Bahgat Korani, Professor of International Relations at the American University in Cairo "Politics" in the wide sense will continue to dominate Egyptian issues: from presidential elections to the continuation of protest movements. In other words, I do not agree with [writer] Hassanein Heikal and others that "politics is drying up in Egypt". That might be the case of formal politics, at the top of the pyramid between the governing party and opposition political parties. But "politics from below" will continue and intensify. It will be a hot year. At the global level, I expect more world discoveries especially in medicine and certainly communication technologies, increasing space invasion together with rising world poverty and even famine riots. Amr Hamzawy, Research director and senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut The legitimacy crisis of Egyptian politics after the parliamentary elections in 2010 and approaching the presidential elections in 2011 looms big in the background. Then it's the anticipated creation of the independent state in South Sudan and its impact. Internationally and with regard to how international dynamics impact our region, it's the continued failure of the United States in pushing the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks to the point of a real negotiated solution. Hussein Abdel-Ghani, Journalist and former Al-Jazeera Cairo bureau chief The presidential elections and the possibility that President Hosni Mubarak may in a sudden move refrain from running, giving way to another contestant, most likely his son Gamal. Challenges to watch for Hossam Badrawi, Member of the Shura Council - Human development. This challenge should also be treated as an opportunity to achieve the much hoped for push for growth in Egypt. I believe that the upgrading of education and the support for creativity and innovation are the main clues to progress and to improving human resources in Egypt. - Economic development. The future of economic development in Egypt hinges on the ability of the economy to achieve annual growth rates of eight per cent to 10 per cent for 15 successive years, for that's the only way we may be able to boost our standards of living in a substantially way. To do this, we need huge investments in infrastructure such as roads, ports and logistics. This would create the climate needed to attract foreign investment. - Egypt is engaged competing for regional clout with Iran, Israel and Turkey. That's why we need to improve our competitiveness to stay ahead of the game. We have to have a strategy to deal with all those regional powers. And we cannot afford to leave a power vacuum through which other regional powers may elbow us out from our leading position. Mounir Fakhri Abdel-Nour, Secretary-general of the Wafd - How to address the problem of water and modernise Egyptian agriculture through upgrading irrigation systems or changing crop patterns. - How to reform the Egyptian budget and rethink the systems of subsidies, reduce the public debt, and adjust the priorities of public spending in a way that promotes development and social justice. - There is also the question of constitutional reform which I expect (hope?) will accompany the presidential elections. Amr Hamzawy, Research director and senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut We need to really face up to the problems of the present and carry out solutions rather than only adopt plans and marshal resources to solve them. The most pressing problems for Egypt are for me: unemployment, fighting corruption, independence of justice, and especially building social capital or trust in society, including between poor and rich and Muslims and Copts. face up to the problems of the present but with an eye on the future. Rather than just adopting plans, we need to emphasise applicable solutions and carry them out. In other words, we need to make sure resources are ready when we approve solutions. Otherwise, our efforts will be futile and we will not be taken seriously, nationally and internationally. For me, this way of practical-logical thinking and acting is the most needed in Egypt at present. Hussein Abdel-Ghani, Journalist and former Al-Jazeera Cairo bureau chief - The crisis of political legitimacy of the Egyptian political regime, which the recent parliamentary elections exacerbated. - Social and class tensions that are likely to increase with the continued rise in prices, especially in food prices that eat up a big chunk of the income of poor people. - Sectarian tension caused by the absence of a solution addressing the root of the problem rather than introducing sedatives and temporary measures. - The possibility that the remainder of the façade of pluralism that existed since 1976 will crumble because of the National Democratic Party's overwhelming control of the new parliament, which may lead to the disintegration of the main opposition parties such as the Wafd, Tagammu, and the Nasserist parties. - The spread of corruption, conflict of interests, and usurpation of public funds. Top priority on Egypt's agenda Hossam Badrawi, Member of the Shura Council Egypt must sustain its current rate of economic growth and boost this growth to 10 per cent per year. This, I believe, should be the top item on the country's agenda for 2011. Mounir Fakhri Abdel-Nour, Secretary-general of the Wafd Political reform, for it is the basis of stability and economic development. Bahgat Korani, Professor of International Relations at the American University in Cairo We need to really face up to the problems of the present and carry out solutions rather than only adopt plans and marshal resources to solve them. The most pressing problems for Egypt are for me: unemployment, fighting corruption, independence of justice, and especially building social capital or trust in society, including between poor and rich and Muslims and Copts. Amr Hamzawy, Research director and senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut Sustaining the current level of annual economic growth (around seven per cent) and acting swiftly to ease sectarian tension by addressing its legal and social root causes, should be high on the government's agenda in 2011 and deserves attention from the opposition and civil society. Hussein Abdel-Ghani, Journalist and former Al-Jazeera Cairo bureau chief The Egyptian state and the presidency may elect to use their weight to propose a project that would restore hope to Egyptians in possibly transcending the current political and historical dilemma that resulted from the loss of political legitimacy and the widening of the gap between rich and poor. A transitional, liberal phase could be launched, opening the door to the formulation of a new constitution of the country. The door can also be opened to the creation of new civilian parties under the supervision of those states' national institutions that are acceptable to all. The reason such an initiative should be the top item on the Egyptian agenda for 2011 is that the loss of hope for peaceful change and for reform coming from within the regime would ultimately lead to an explosion or to chaos in ways that no one would wish to see happen in this country.
