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Over a barrel
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 13 - 02 - 2003

Africa begs to differ with Washington over Iraq, Gamal Nkrumah writes
"Why is the United States behaving so arrogantly?" thundered former South African President Nelson last week. "If there is a country that has committed unspeakable atrocities in the world, it is the US. They don't care for human beings," said, warning that US President George W Bush was "trying to bring about carnage".
, who was speaking at the International Women's Forum meeting in South Africa, stated categorically that the impending strike against Iraq was aimed at securing a tighter control over the vast oil reserves of Iraq and the Middle East. "They just want the oil. We must expose this as much as possible," added.
The internationally-respected octogenarian did not mince his words when he referred to Bush's "muddled mind" and dismissed British Prime Minister Tony Blair as Bush's "lapdog", referring to him as the "US foreign minister".
The Nobel prize winner's widely-publicised remarks coincide with those made by the vast majority of policy-makers and opinion-makers throughout the African continent, judging from the comments of officials, diplomats and media commentators. There is a deep scepticism about a US strike against Iraq and few support a military campaign. Africans almost spontaneously express sympathy with Iraqis and African leaders, especially those of oil- importing countries, are more inclined to conjure up disaster scenarios when it comes to the ripple effects of a US strike against Iraq. Economic imperatives and an underlying sympathy for the plight of the long-suffering Iraqi people uncomfortably widen the differences in perception between Washington and African capitals over Iraq.
An economic factor is also strongly at work. There is a prevalent view that war will wreak havoc on African economies. African economies were thrown into chaos in the aftermath of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. South African President Thabo Mbeki stressed that the oil price hikes of the post- 1973 Arab-Israeli war were the "origin of [the present] African debt that cannot be paid now". He pointed to the current volatility of the global financial markets and oil prices as ill omens. "The [African Union's] Central Organ [for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution] is of the view that a military confrontation in Iraq would be a destabilising factor in the whole region and would have far-reaching economic and security consequences for all the countries of the world and particularly Africa," Mbeki warned.
's scathing criticisms of US foreign policy and his biting commentary on the subject of Iraq have been hitting the headlines and making waves in the continent and abroad. Overnight, has emerged as one of the chief leaders of the international anti-war campaign.
It is in this respect that South Africa, a leading member of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), is organising a special high-level official mission to Iraq to help explore ways to avert war and to persuade Iraqi officials to cooperate more closely with the United Nations weapons inspectors. The mission is headed by Aziz Pahad, South African deputy foreign minister and a leader of the country's one million-strong Muslim community.
The only criterion for the success of Pahad's mission is the "final destruction of all weapons of mass destruction in Iraq", Pahad told Al-Ahram Weekly prior to his departure to Baghdad. Above all, Pahad said, "We seek a peaceful solution, but it must go through the UN Security Council." He expressed the view that the Iraqis should be given a chance to dismantle their war machine. Simultaneously, he urged Iraq to follow the South African lead with respect to its total compliance and cooperation with the UN in destroying the apartheid state's weapons of mass destruction in the early 1990s.
African countries are inclined to believe that Iraq is holding to its obligations under UN resolutions in order to lift sanctions. They argue that ongoing UN inspections are effective and should continue in order to peacefully disarm Iraq.
South Africa is no exception, and Washington and Pretoria could not be further apart on Iraq policy. "All diplomatic means should be pursued by the international community to ensure that the Iraqi government complies fully with the provisions of UN Resolution 1441 and that in any case, any new decision on the matter should emanate from the UN Security Community after a consideration of the final report of the inspection team," Mbeki said.
Though he was speaking in a personal capacity, 's remarks also clearly reflect his country's position: "What I am condemning is that two countries [the US and Britain] should go out of the UN and have their own separate programme, which actually undermines the UN," explained. " [UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission chief] Hans Blix and [head of the International Atomic Energy Agency] Mohamed El- Baradei are men of integrity, and we want them to be respected," told reporters in Johannesburg over the weekend. "We are going to listen to them alone. We are not going to listen to the US."
According to a report in the Berliner Morgenpost, a German daily, is preparing to travel to Baghdad later in the month accompanied by fellow Nobel winner and former US President Jimmy Carter on a special mission to try and persuade the Iraqi authorities to come up with new concessions that can help avert a war.
"We are certainly against going to war," said Mbeki, who currently chairs the African Union. "We should avoid the use of force," he added. Africa, it seems, does not accept US Secretary of State Colin Powell's "web of lies" speech to the UN Security Council, in which he accused Iraq of lying about its arsenal of weapons of mass destruction and of harbouring terrorists and collaborating with Al-Qa'eda.
The prevalent view in Africa is that the Iraqi people have suffered enough after years of sanctions and war. South African President Thabo Mbeki warned that an attack on Iraq, "would be devastating not just to Iraq, but to the whole of the Middle East and to other countries of the world". Mbeki concurred with 's anti-war stance, warning that higher oil prices as a result of the war would plunge Africa into deep economic recession.
While South African anti-war efforts have received more publicity than those of other African countries, others on the continent have voiced criticism and concern over the Iraqi crisis. There are currently three elected African states on the UN Security Council -- Angola, Cameroon and Guinea -- although they lack veto power. All support continued inspections on suspect facilities in Iraq, but have not taken a position regarding military action.


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