GDP has long been perceived as indicative of a nation's equity. But as Pierre Loza discovers, in the case of the bidding nations it can The race to host the first African World Cup in history has been anything but predictable. Because Libya and Tunisia appear to have fizzled, the competition has narrowed down in its final days to Egypt, South Africa and Morocco. Though the three countries are perhaps evenly poised to win the right to host the tournament, from an organisational viewpoint a major determining factor that represents a paragon World Cup destination is development. A nation that is strong enough to host a World Cup must also be strong enough to stimulate the development of its people. Development is not simply the accumulation of a high national income. It is a common mistake to relate higher GDP per capita levels to advanced stages of so-called world ranks. The reality comes as a surprise to the non- economist; development, in actuality, has more to do with expanding people's choices and providing them with the proper environment to live productive, creative lives. A high GDP per capita represents the income potential available, to add upon or improve existing capitol. In simple terms, it is the economy's domestic output, divided over the population -- an apt way to look at a country's economic wealth. South Africa had a GDP per capita of $10,000 in 2002. That is approximately one-and-a-half times the size of Egypt's $4,000 GDP per capita, and Morocco's $3,900. High per capita GDP numbers, however, do not directly correlate with development. A nation like Kuwait has a very high GDP per capita but with a relatively low rate of educational attainment. This is a sign that Kuwait is not allocating enough of its plentiful resources to human development. Real GDP growth, on the other hand, indicates growth in produced goods and services, while also adjusting for inflation. It represents the speed at which the economy is growing. A five or six per cent real GDP growth rate denotes an economic boom, something that potentially wealthy South Africa has not reached in a decade. But if one was to look back to Egypt just a few years ago, such growth rates have already been attained. In 1999, Egypt was undeniably in a state of "boom". Morocco, too, must be credited -- it has achieved these rates three times, in 1996, 1998 and 2001. Such growth rates transcend immediate statistical implications, representing a renewed prosperity that can be utilised towards greater investment. Growth and development are not a single unified entity, and for development to take place there must be growth to sustain it. And in order to reach even higher levels of growth, development becomes a necessity. An equally important question to ask other than GDP is how this growth is distributed across the population. Even though South Africa's high GDP per capita appears rosy, it is essential to note that after years of apartheid, the distribution of wealth is among the most skewed in the world. A general measure of a nation's distribution of wealth is the Gini Coefficient. This indicator measures the extent in which national income deviates, from a perfectly equal distribution, across households. It ranges from zero to one, zero meaning perfect equality and one meaning complete inequality. Among the three nations competing for the privilege of hosting the World Cup on their home turf, the Gini Coefficient indicates vast discrepancy in their national status. Egypt's Gini Coefficient ranges from 0.25 to 0.30, Morocco's between 0.35 and 0.40 and South Africa in the 0.50 to 0.55 range. High degrees of income inequality generally correlate with social tension and worrisome crime rates, something which is crippling South Africa. To reach one's full national potential, access to knowledge is also essential. For that aspect of development to have an impact, there must be the foundation stone -- adult literacy. Among the three World Cup hopefuls, 2003 shows the South African population to be the most literate, with 86.4 per cent of the population able to read and write. Runner- up is Egypt with 57.7 per cent followed by Morocco with 51.7 per cent. Even after years of apartheid and the subsequent neglect of South Africa's coloured population, the country still boasts one of Africa's highest literacy rates, allowing people the capability to make comprehensive, informed decisions. But knowledge is of little use without the time and health to fully utilise it. Which is where life expectancy, a significant development indicator, comes into play. Due to a rampant AIDS epidemic coupled with incomparably high crime rates, South Africa's life expectancy for 2003 was just 46.56 years. Egypt came first for the same year with a life expectancy of 70.41 years, just above Morocco's 70.04 average. A high life expectancy rate represents a healthy living environment, complemented by a decent health system. It is generally believed that people tend to act more towards the common good when they feel that they have a long healthy life ahead of them. In that sense, a low life expectancy chips away at the fundamental value of life, making it more tension- filled, less stable and generally less pleasant. In simple economic terms, development is a path to greater economic growth and efficiency. Each of the three continental heavyweights challenging for the World Cup has its own challenges, achievements and shortcomings. But as with all else in life, it boils down to priority and relativity. While one would like to see the competition inspire the hopeful nations to excel, it is also quite clear that longevity and prosperity would take priority.
