The Indian National Congress Party stunned everyone with a surprising victory in last week's general elections. Writing from New Delhi, Jaideep Mukerji looks at what this dramatic reversal of political fortunes means for India It is being called one of the biggest political upsets in Indian history. Defying almost everyone's predictions, India's National Congress Party stormed back to power in India's 14th general elections last week, handing former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a humiliating defeat in the process. On Wednesday, former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh was chosen to be prime minister, after party President Sonia Gandhi refused to take the post herself. Congress and their allies scored a decisive victory in the elections, winning 219 of the 539 seats being contested in India's parliament, the Lok Sabha. While still short of the 272 seats needed for an outright majority, Congress is now the single largest party in the Lok Sabha and wasted little time cobbling together enough support to form the next government. "There is a sense of great fulfilment and immense satisfaction at what we have achieved," Congress spokesperson Jaipal Reddy told Al- Ahram Weekly. "We not only won the election, we won the war against the media who consistently predicted Congress would not win." Indeed, just a month ago, most polls showed Congress dead in the water, with some media pundits predicting they would win as few as 100 seats. The party appeared to be mired in internal conflict and seemed unable to effectively attack the NDA's record in office. As the election campaign unfolded, however, the Congress party managed to find their political footing, putting the NDA on the defensive and scoring a major victory in state elections held in Andhra Pradesh just days before nationwide results were announced. Congress's strong showing of course comes in sharp contrast to a thoroughly dejected NDA who are still trying to come to grips with the scale of their defeat. The alliance lost nearly 100 seats and 25 NDA cabinet ministers were voted out of office. Major regional parties within the NDA were also almost completely wiped off the electoral map in key southern states like Tamil Nadu and Andrah Pradesh. Some pundits point to a low voter turnout from India's middle and upper classes -- many of whom gained the most from India's recent economic growth -- as a possible reason for the defeat. Others point to a long electoral campaign that steadily sapped the NDA's momentum. Whatever the reason, it is clear that the NDA seriously misjudged the mood of the Indian electorate. Under the banner of an "India Shining" campaign slogan, the NDA sought to highlight their achievements in office, namely economic progress and warming relations with Pakistan. The message, however, was at times painfully out of touch with India's millions of poor. A third of India's population of over a billion live on less than a dollar a day. For these people, India's buoyant economy failed to produce any tangible benefit and some analysts surmised that the NDA's emphasis on their achievements came off as being arrogant and insouciant to the needs of India's lower classes. "The NDA's hubris meant that at some level, they bought into their own propaganda," said Suman Dubey, a journalist who has covered India's elections for over 30 years. "Expectations are high among India's poor and the BJP didn't come off as being particularly sympathetic to their needs. India's poor vote for people they feel are there for them; it is important that they feel that there are people who understands their needs," he told the Weekly. Congress spokesperson Jaipal Reddy agreed, attributing Congress' victory to an electoral platform that was broad in appeal. "There was meticulous analysis on our part as to what issues were important and which allies best reflected our views. The result was that minorities, blue- collar workers, white-collar workers, and farmers alike all responded to our message," he said. The Congress victory, however, quickly turned into a bitter-sweet affair for Sonia Gandhi. Throughout the campaign her opponents ridiculed her foreign origins, halting Hindi and lack of political experience. Rather than respond to the attacks directly, she instead embarked on a grueling campaign schedule that saw her travel over 60,000 kilometres across the country since January, attending hundreds of rallies and town hall- style meetings along the way. Speaking to reporters last Friday in her first interview after Congress' election victory, the 56-year-old said that her victory sent a clear message that the Indian electorate does not respond to personal attacks. "Most of the Congress Party's opponents used [my foreign origins] against me, but I had full faith in the judgment of the people of my country. Their negative attacks failed," she declared. Yet despite carrying the elections, Gandhi shocked everyone with a last minute decision to not stand for prime minister. In an emotional address on Tuesday, the Congress leader said that she would stay on as president of the Congress party but would leave the responsibility of prime minister to someone else. On Wednesday, it was announced that Singh would be sworn in as the country's new premier. "The post of prime minister has not been my aim," Gandhi said. "My aim has always been to protect the secular foundations of our nation. I request you to accept my decision and I will not revert." Her speech was interrupted several times by Congress members begging her to reconsider, with some MPs even rushing to the podium and interrupting her speech. Despite the outpouring of support from Congress members across the country, Gandhi has so far shown no signs that she intends to change her mind saying that creating "a stable government" was her only concern. Singh and the Congress party face a difficult task in the weeks and months to come. Despite winning more seats than any other party, Congress must now grapple with the difficult task of managing the recently christened Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), a governing coalition of parties that have little in common asides from secularism and an active dislike of the NDA. Complicating the process is the fact that the Left Front, a group of left-leaning parties fresh off their best showing ever, decided against joining the SPA instead agreeing to only support Congress from outside the government. This creates problems on two fronts for Congress. By not joining the SPA, the Left Front keeps the right to openly criticise the government while at the same time retaining considerable influence over government policy through the threat of withdrawing their much-needed support at any time. In other words, by not joining the SPA, the Left Front gets all the power but none of the responsibilities and Congress did not have to wait long to get a taste of the headaches the situation is likely to create in the months ahead. The Communist Party of India for instance sent markets into a panic after the party's Secretary- General AB Bardhan suggested that India's widespread privatisation initiative, known here as disinvestment, should be revised. "[The] Disinvestment Ministry should go. A separate Disinvestment Ministry gives an idea that the whole country is up for sale," he said. The comments sent markets plummeting in India, with India's stock exchange, the Sensex, forced to stop trading several times on Monday as it suffered its biggest one-day loss in over a decade. Prior to his new appointment, Singh -- the man widely credited with overseeing India's first attempts at economic liberalisation in the early 1990s -- took to the airwaves to try and limit the damage and explain that Congress still intended to push forward with economic reforms, but that it would do so in more cautious manner. "I want to reassure the people of India and investors that we will not do anything that will create an adverse environment for the growth of economy," he said, adding: "We are not against disinvestment if it is in the national interest." The panic caused by even the suggestion of curtailing disinvestment, however, highlights the delicate balancing act Congress now faces. On the one hand, Congress will not be in power for long if their policies stunt India's economic growth, yet the NDA's defeat sends a clear message that the Indian public, especially the poorer segments of Indian society, want a change in the way the country's progress unfolds. Congress is busy working with its allies -- both in and out of government -- to create a shared vision called the Common Minimum Programme that addresses these concerns. Aside from spelling out a series of policies that will serve as the basis for the next five years of India's future, Congress officials hope the document will prove that despite leading a more fractious coalition than they would have preferred, the party still intends to form a stable government able to address the needs of poor while still fostering economic growth.
